PM widely expected to beat challenger in October but both criticised after ‘muddled’ exchanges

The first election debate between the New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, and the opposition leader, Judith Collins, went off without a bang, with both leaders failing to properly ignite.

Ardern is widely expected to win the election on 17 October. In a Colmar Brunton poll released an hour before the debate, her Labour party garnered 48% as preferred leaders, compared with 31% for the National party.

The PM promised transformative government, but has so far largely maintained the status quo

Jacinda Ardern was travelling in a taxi in July 2017, two months before the election that would make her prime minister, when arguably the most important message in her nine-year parliamentary career came through. Labour’s poll results were crashing, the message said, and the party leader – the austere Andrew Little – was considering stepping down. Would Ardern, the then deputy leader, consider stepping up?

In the following days calls went back and forth. The party activists (and MPs at risk of losing their seats) were in the pits, and Little told the country’s leading current affairs show resigning had crossed his mind. From that admission, the poll numbers could only fall further. The Greens were at 15% , sucking up votes to Labour’s left while the conservative National party was polling in the mid-to-high 40s, maintaining an iron grip on the centre right.