Everything pointed to a Labor win in the 2019 election. But it is only a pretence that we are in the certainty business

The federal election wash-up is a quaint sort of ritual. There are, inevitably, explosions of feelpinion about why one side won and the other side lost. The victors rush to write the first draft of history, and on the losing side there is a frenzy of backside covering and jostling for future advancement, masquerading as deep insights about who failed to do what and when.

All of it, the initial download – masters of the universe versus the vanquished – is inherently unreliable because the protagonists are unreliable. They are still processing what has happened and they are positioning for the next thing, because that’s how the psychology of politics works. Everything is refracted through post-campaign decompression and self-interest.