One expert says many surveys overrepresented poor voters, and far-right supporters may just not respond

Not for the first time, the pollsters got it wrong. Far from being a sweeping win for the left, the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections was much closer than expected, with the country’s far-right president significantly outperforming predictions.

With almost all votes counted on Monday, Jair Bolsonaro’s veteran leftist rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had secured 48.3%, while the populist incumbent was just five percentage points behind on 43.3%, a much narrower margin than most pre-election estimates.

Brazilians will go to the polls again after former president won the first vote but failed to secure a majority over the incumbent

Brazil’s acrimonious presidential race will go to a second round after the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to secure the overall majority he needed to avoid a runoff with the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro.

With more than 99.5% of votes counted the leftist veteran had secured 48.3% of the vote, not enough to avoid the 30 October show down with his rightwing rival. Bolsonaro, who significantly out-performed pollsters’ predictions and will be buoyed by the result, received 43.3%.

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• Lula da Silva wins vote but not outright victory

A Lula victory would represent the latest in a series of triumphs for a resurgent Latin American left, following the election of leftist leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile.

“I’m going to win these elections so I can give the people the right to be happy again. The people need, deserve and have the right … to be happy once more,” Lula told journalists as he wrapped up his campaigning with a parade through the streets of São Paulo on Saturday.

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Lula will go to a runoff election at the end of the month after a tighter than expected first round result

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Brazil’s president is elected directly by the 156 million voters; there is no electoral college and no role for the legislature. A candidate needs more than 50% of the vote to be elected. If this does not happen in the first round, the top two candidates will go into a runoff election at the end of the month.

Supporters of leftwing frontrunner confident he will prevail as 156 million Brazilians cast their votes

Gabriela Leoncio has been waiting for the chance to free Brazil from Jair Bolsonaro for four years. On Sunday that chance came.

“It’s been a joke-slash-tragedy,” the restaurant host, 29, said of the president’s tumultuous far-right administration as she cast her vote against him in her country’s most important election in decades.

But hopes leftwing former president will defeat Jair Bolsonaro tempered by fear a runoff contest could mean weeks of turmoil and violence

Brazil’s former leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the brink of an astonishing political comeback, with polls suggesting he is poised to defeat his far-right rival Jair Bolsonaro in Sunday’s election.

Eve of election polls suggested Lula was within a whisker of securing the overall majority of votes that would guarantee him a first-round victory against Brazil’s radical incumbent, whose calamitous Covid response, assault on the Amazon and foul-mouthed threats to democracy have alienated more than half of the population.

Polls show former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on course for a return to power

It was a scene that could have been plucked from Brazil’s history books: an enraptured crowd, a sea of flags and, on stage above them, a bearded leftist in a bright red shirt.

“The president of hope is here!” the master of ceremonies roared as the star of the show arrived in a police convoy to address the people whose country he is promising to save.

Political violence breaks out in Mato Grosso state after argument between followers of rival presidential candidates

A supporter of Brazil’s far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has stabbed to death a backer of leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the latest instance of rising political tensions in the buildup to this year’s election.

The violence happened in the west-central state of Mato Grosso, after tempers frayed during an argument over support for the two candidates. Bolsonaro trails Lula in the polls in an election riven by intense polarisation.

Brazilian president must ‘explain the origins of this money’, says reporter behind seven-month investigation

Jair Bolsonaro’s murky family finances have come under renewed scrutiny after claims the Brazilian president and close relatives used cash to pay for more than 50 properties worth millions of dollars.

The allegations – the result of a seven-month investigation by the Brazilian news group UOL – suggest that between 1990 and 2022, members of the Bolsonaro clan repeatedly used large sums of cash to pay for flats, houses and plots of land in cities including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Leftwing frontrunner counters far-right president’s efforts to demonize him with evangelical voters in bitterly divided country

Brazil’s former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has formally launched his campaign to reclaim the presidency with a ferocious broadside against his rival, Jair Bolsonaro, who he claimed was “possessed by the devil”.

Lula’s rebuke came on the first official day of campaigning before Brazil’s October election when 156.5 million citizens will choose the next leader of a bitterly divided nation.

Far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing in the polls and has hinted he will not cede power if defeated

Campaigning in Brazil’s most important election for years formally gets under way this week amid fears of political violence on the campaign trail and possible turmoil before and after the October ballots.

Far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing in the polls and has hinted he will not give up power if defeated by the leftist frontrunner and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Marcelo de Arruda was shot at his birthday party by a supporter of President Bolsonaro

Brazilian political leaders called for calm this week after the killing of a Workers’ party member prompted fears that political violence in the polarised nation will erupt in the run-up to October’s presidential election.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftwing former president and Workers’ party leader who is currently leading the polls for the ballot on 2 October, sent his condolences to the family of the dead man, who belonged to his party, and called for “dialogue, tolerance and peace”.

Fears Brazilian president might refuse to accept defeat in this year’s election as leftist rival Lula is set to announce candidacy

The CIA director William Burns urged Jair Bolsonaro to stop questioning his country’s voting system, it has been claimed, amid growing fears the Brazilian president might refuse to accept defeat in this year’s election.

Polls suggest Bolsonaro, a far-right populist famed for his adulation of Donald Trump, will struggle to secure a second term when about 150 million Brazilians head to the polls in October to choose their next leader.

The 76-year-old former leader, jailed on corruption charges in 2018, is ready to run again and is ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the polls

For weeks Hilton Acioli wrestled with the melodies and lyrics that would become the theme tune to one of the most remarkable political careers in recent history.

Finally, one morning in the winter of 1989, something clicked. “Lula lá – a star is sparkling. Lula lá – the flourishing of hope,” the Cat Stevens-loving Brazilian songsmith sang as he sat before his computer with a guitar.

Electoral judge outlaws leftist ‘propaganda’ at Lollapalooza, months before October election

Artists and celebrities in Brazil have voiced outrage after an electoral judge ordered one of the country’s biggest music festivals to outlaw “political demonstrations” by performers after a legal challenge from President Jair Bolsonaro’s political party.

Lawyers representing Bolsonaro’s Liberal party made their petition to the supreme electoral court on Saturday after Brazil’s far-right leader was pilloried at this weekend’s Lollapalooza event by pop stars and rappers, including the British singer Marina.