Loudest voices urge further tack to right after Reform UK gains but moderates argue general election can only be won on centre ground
For Reform UK to win 13% of the vote in a byelection is a long way from the heady days of Ukip taking 60% in Clacton in 2014.
However, that share of the vote was still a shock for the Conservatives on Friday morning, given that Reform is a newer party without the draw of Nigel Farage as leader or the rallying cause of Brexit behind it.
Continue reading...Keir Starmer says ‘people are ready to put their trust in a Labour government’, as wins by Damien Egan and Gen Kitchen put further pressure on Rishi Sunak
Gen Kitchen, the new MP for Wellingborough, said she was “ecstatic” at the result, adding that the double byelection win for Labour shows that people are “fed up” and want change.
“The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street,” she said.
Continue reading...Gen Kitchen takes seat for party for first time since 2001 general election to temper fears after testing week
Labour has overturned a Tory majority of over more than 18,000 to secure victory in the Wellingborough byelection, winning the seat for the first time since the 2001 general election.
Labour’s candidate, Gen Kitchen, won with 13,844 votes, beating the Conservatives’ Helen Harrison who received 7,408 votes in the largest swing from the Tories to Labour since 1994 and second largest since the second world war. It was Labour’s fifth byelection gain from the Conservatives overall in this parliament. The party also gained a Tory seat in Kingswood, dealing a double blow to an embattled Conservative party that has lost 10 byelections in a single parliament, more than any government since the 1960s.
Continue reading...Blow for Rishi Sunak as former Lewisham mayor Damien Egan elected in South Gloucestershire seat
Labour has overturned an 11,000-plus Tory majority to win the byelection in the South Gloucestershire constituency of Kingswood.
Damien Egan, who resigned as the mayor of Lewisham in south-east London to contest the seat even though it is being abolished at the next general election, is celebrating victory after a professional and energetic Labour campaign. He won with 11,1176 votes, to 8,675 for his nearest rival, the Conservatives’ Sam Bromiley, a majority of 2,501. Labour won on a swing in the share of the vote of 16.4 percentage points – some way above the 11.4 point swing needed.
Continue reading...Labour aiming to win two byelections as chancellor defends Sunak’s record, saying ‘economy is turning a corner’
On Sky News this morning Jeremy Hunt claimed that he would “only cut taxes in a way that was responsible” in the March budget, and the chancellor refused to be drawn on specific measures.
He told viewers:
You will know that chancellors don’t talk about budgets just a few weeks before and that is for a very good reason, because I don’t yet know the final numbers that I will receive from the office for budget responsibility.
I would only cut taxes in a way that was responsible, and I certainly wouldn’t do anything that fuelled inflation just when we are starting to have some success in bringing down inflation.
I am a passionate supporter of the NHS and all our public services, but in the long-run the best thing that I can do as chancellor for the NHS is to make sure that our economy is growing healthily. So what you will see in everything I do in the Budget on March 6 is prioritising economic growth.
Continue reading...Former Tory home secretary tells House of Lords he hopes the bill will be struck down as ‘unconstitutional’
By the way I notice in the comments – see I promised that I do read them – some criticism of the reporting of the inflation figures saying that food prices fell when the headline inflation rate is 4%.
While it is true that inflation falling from 11% to 4% doesn’t mean that prices are going down, it means they are going up more slowly, my understanding is that the food price component of the inflation figures did show prices going down, albeit from a high base.
However, food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell at a monthly rate of 0.4% in January, the first monthly decline since May 2021, driven by price cuts in January for bread and cereals, cream crackers, sponge cake and chocolate biscuits.
Against a backdrop of a tough Christmas for UK retailers because of weak consumer spending, furniture prices also fell at the fastest monthly rate in four years amid steep reductions for kitchens, leather settees, dining tables and chairs.
The ONS said that although food inflation fell on the month in January, prices had increased by 25% over the past two years – more than double the rate seen over the entire preceding decade.
Continue reading...Gathering of councillors in north-west England has resulted in suspensions of candidates Azhar Ali and Graham Jones
After the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel, local Labour party meetings became the source of major headaches for the party leadership.
While they were spaces for people to share their difficulties navigating rising levels of Islamophobic and antisemitic abuse, it was also where people expressed frustration at Keir Starmer’s handling of Labour’s position on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Continue reading...Withdrawal of backing for Graham Jones, candidate for Hyndburn, follows Starmer’s action against Azhar Ali in Rochdale
Labour has suspended a second parliamentary candidate over their remarks about Israel, as Keir Starmer struggles to contain the fallout from the leak of a private meeting of party activists in Lancashire last year.
Party sources said on Tuesday that Labour had suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn, less than 24 hours after the party withdrew its support from Azhar Ali, its candidate for the Rochdale byelection later this month.
Continue reading...With Labour withdrawing support for its candidate, the vote has been blown wide open
With Labour withdrawing support for its candidate, Azhar Ali, at the 11th hour, the Rochdale byelection on 29 February has been blown wide open. The candidates on the all-male ballot paper include George Galloway, who has been canvassing support among the Muslim population, and the seat’s former MP Simon Danczuk, who has appeared as a last-minute candidate for Reform UK.
Here’s a run-down of the candidates and what they stand for:
Continue reading...Labour leader says he acted decisively after further information on Azhar Ali’s comments about Israel
Keir Starmer has defended his handling of the controversy surrounding Labour’s candidate in Rochdale, who was suspended by the party on Monday night after days of revelations about remarks he made about Israel soon after the Hamas attacks.
The Labour leader said on Tuesday he had taken tough and decisive action against Azhar Ali, who will now campaign for the Rochdale seat with no official support for the party.
Continue reading...Senior Conservative says party has descended into ‘death spiral’ as poll losses set to fuel fresh attacks on Sunak’s leadership
Conservative MPs on Saturday night predicted fresh attacks on Rishi Sunak’s leadership within days, as they accused their own party of surrendering to Labour without a proper fight in two formerly safe Tory seats where byelections will be held this week.
MPs from across the party complained that losses in Wellingborough and Kingswood on Thursday had already been “priced in”, as one senior figure said defeatism had set in, with the party having descended into a “death spiral”.
Continue reading...Former Labour member likely to be up against George Galloway in contest for Rochdale seat
Simon Danczuk, the former Labour MP who was suspended from the party for sending explicit messages to a 17-year-old girl, is standing in the Rochdale byelection for the Reform party.
He looks likely to face George Galloway, another former Labour MP, who said he would stand on a pro-Palestine ticket to “teach Starmer a lesson”.
Continue reading...Recall of MP Peter Bone opens up Brexit-leaning former safe seat where defections from Tories in any direction could help Labour win
The public’s dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak’s government runs deep. In his first year in No 10, the prime minister led the Conservatives to six byelection defeats – though many Tories believed they never stood a chance with the vote in West Lancashire.
On paper the results show that national polling, which puts the Labour party ahead of the Conservatives with a 20-point lead, is pretty accurate. Labour figures believe the anti-Tory sentiment that is radiating from the polls is very reflective of the mood in Wellingborough – which will become the latest site for a byelection showdown.
Continue reading...Keir Starmer’s aides warn against complacency as huge swings from Tories raise prospect of 1997-style landslide next year
Labour has overturned massive Conservative majorities in a history-making pair of byelections, sending the Tories deeper into in-fighting and acrimony over the prospect of a landslide defeat at the upcoming general election.
The wins in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth prompted gleeful talk within Labour of a possible 1997-type win on the horizon, but Keir Starmer’s aides were quick to warn MPs and the party more widely against complacency.
Continue reading...Rishi Sunak appears safe but divisions widening on strategy, as MP bemoans lack of support in Tamworth
Senior Conservatives have dismissed the idea of any attempt to unseat Rishi Sunak, even after two disastrous byelection defeats, but warned that the prime minister might instead be facing the equally grim prospect of a party on the verge of giving up.
One Tory MP who campaigned in Tamworth, where the Conservatives lost to Labour by just 1,300 votes, said they were dismayed at the lack of top-level support, with one cabinet minister calling off a campaign trip the day they were meant to arrive.
Continue reading...On the streets of Labour’s new constituencies, there was anti-Tory feeling – but also much apathy
It was a stunning pair of victories – and among the most damaging byelection nights any government has suffered in living memory, according to the celebrated psephologist John Curtice.
The question in the newly minted Labour constituencies of Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth the morning after was whether the opposition party can repeat the success at a general election.
Continue reading...Labour wins Tamworth with swing of 23.9 percentage points from Tories, then Mid Bedfordshire in largest ever turnaround of majority in UK byelection
Prof Sir John Curtice told the Today programme that there were two points in this parliament when Tory support rapidly switched to Labour: when the first Partygate revelations came out, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget. He said you could “reasonably argue” that those two events were more important in explaining why Labour is now doing so well than Keir Starmer’s changes to the Labour party. But if Starmer had not changed Labour, then the party might not have benefited to the extent it has, he said.
Curtice ended his interview with a big ‘what if?’
Let us say those Partygate happenings had never happened, or at least we had never heard of them. And as a result Boris Johnson was still in 10 Downing Street today. Would Labour be doing as well in the polls as they are at present?
These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them. We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.
The truth is these were not ordinary government losses. The swing in Tamworth, at just below 24%, is the second biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in postwar electoral history. And at just over 20% the swing in Mid Bedfordshire is also in the top 10.
No government has previously lost to the principal opposition party a seat as safe as Tamworth. You have to go back to 1977 and the Ashfield byelection to find an equivalent.
You can argue maybe there isn’t as much enthusiasm for Labour as there is discontent with the conservatives. But, nevertheless, when Labour have been challenged, they still managed to win that challenge.
Continue reading...Ability to regain marginals as well as eat into Tory heartlands shows party is on course for stunning general election win
Labour is deservedly basking in its byelection successes in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth. The 2019 general election results left the party with a mountain to climb if it were to achieve an overall majority. It needed a huge swing to reclaim many traditional marginals that had supported Tony Blair back in the day, or else make progress in constituencies that had never been Labour before, even at the peaks in 1945 and 1997. These byelection victories show that Labour can achieve both objectives.
Tamworth was a traditional bellwether that had shifted well to the right. Mid Bedfordshire was the archetypal home counties Conservative stronghold, which had been true blue since 1931.
Continue reading...Formerly safe Tory seats in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth could fall to opponents in test of Sunak’s electoral fortunes
Rishi Sunak has arrived in Tel Aviv. As mentioned earlier, the British prime minister is due to meet his counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Israeli resident. Sunak is also expected to ask for aid to be allowed into Gaza and for Britons stranded there to be allowed to leave the area.
Reuters has these early remarks from the British prime minister.
Above all, I’m here to express my solidarity with the Israeli people. You have suffered an unspeakable, horrific act of terrorism and I want you to know that the United Kingdom and I stand with you.
Continue reading...Results will be seen as a verdict on Rishi Sunak if Tories lose seats where they had large majorities
Polls have closed in the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth byelections, seen as crucial in gauging the electoral fate of Rishi Sunak but difficult to predict.
The Conservatives are defending majorities of nearly 25,000 in Mid Bedfordshire and close to 20,000 in Tamworth, which would normally point to an easy hold. However, their chances will be hampered by the party’s dismal poll ratings and the records of departing MPs.
Continue reading...