Rishi Sunak and Tories seem to have yet more low expectations for byelection fortunes

Leaked memo suggests party’s votes could halve to 30% in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

In the world of expectation management, a “leaked” memo can be a useful tool for a political party on the eve of a tricky byelection. So the publication of an internal report prepared for the Conservative party chair, Greg Hands, was initially met with some scepticism.

The document, based on telephone canvassing data from recent days, claimed the Tory vote in Thursday’s two byelections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire could halve to about 30%, creating more problems for Rishi Sunak.

Continue reading...

Byelection spending suggests tacit Labour and Lib Dems deal on fighting Tory-held seats

Figures released before Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire contests hint at opposition parties making space for each other

Labour and the Liberal Democrats appear to have made space for each other in byelections held in Conservative seats, spending figures acquired by the Guardian show.

The figures also show Labour lost the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection despite outspending the Conservatives by more than £21,000 in the campaign.

Continue reading...

Labour and Lib Dems in bitter battle over Mid Bedfordshire byelection

Disagreements over who is best placed to take Nadine Dorries’s seat could threaten tactical voting strategies at general election

The fierce byelection battle in Mid Bedfordshire is poisoning relations between Labour and the Lib Dems and risks denting informal cooperation to remove the Tory government, senior Labour figures have warned.

An incredibly close three-way battle has emerged in the seat formerly held by Boris Johnson ally Nadine Dorries, who quit after being refused a place on the former prime minister’s peerages list. Labour and the Lib Dems are both convinced they have the better chance of overturning the colossal 24,664-vote majority and pulling off one of the biggest byelection wins in history this week.

Continue reading...

Labour’s stunning Scottish byelection win means there may be little need to bargain with the SNP

A decade of SNP dominance will be swept away in Scotland if Labour can repeat its Rutherglen success at a general election

Thursday was a big day for Scottish Labour. Within minutes of the declaration that Labour had retaken Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the SNP, phones and social media lit up with triumphant messages from the winning party. And with good reason. This was the best result for Labour in a Scottish byelection since the second world war, and the worst for the SNP since the independence referendum upended Scottish politics.

Some caveats apply. This was one of the SNP’s most marginal seats, where Labour prevailed as recently as 2017. A cloud of scandal hung over a contest triggered after the sitting MP Margaret Ferrier was sanctioned for repeatedly breaking Covid rules. As Boris Johnson has learned, voters judge such behaviour harshly.

Continue reading...

‘Seismic night in Scotland’: Labour crushes SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection

Michael Shanks wins contest Labour considered a crucial test of apparent turnaround of its fortunes in Scotland

Scottish Labour’s Michael Shanks has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection in an overwhelming victory over the SNP that his party leadership declared “seismic”, and a clear demonstration that Scotland could lead the way in delivering a Labour government at Westminster at the coming general election.

In a result that exceeded Scottish Labour expectation, Shanks beat his closest rival, the SNP’s Katy Loudon, by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a resounding swing of more than 20 percentage points.

Continue reading...

Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says

Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat

• Read more: byelection duel could gift Mid Beds to Tories

Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.

Continue reading...

Dropping green pledges would be ‘political suicide’, Sunak and Starmer warned

Science and business leaders say lurch away from climate agenda after byelections would be deeply unpopular with voters and damage UK’s reputation

Britain’s leaders have been warned against a “politically suicidal” lurch away from their green pledges as concerns grow that both major parties may dilute their plans to combat the climate crisis in the wake of a shock byelection result.

Senior figures from business, the scientific community and across the political divide warned that any watering down of climate policies would be deeply unpopular with voters, set back the international fight to reach net zero and damage Britain’s green reputation.

Continue reading...

Yes, the Tories kept Uxbridge. But the general election will be a referendum on Sunak, not Ulez

With a local dispute swaying voters, the result in Boris Johnson’s old seat did not accurately reflect the national mood

• Read more: Starmer under pressure after Uxbridge as Tories tackle mission impossible

One out of three ain’t bad? A surprise win in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge gave Conservatives something to cheer on Friday morning as Rishi Sunak narrowly avoided being the first prime minister since Harold Wilson to suffer three byelection defeats on the same day. But with a local dispute swaying Uxbridge voters, the contests in Selby and Somerton may provide a clearer indication of the national mood. The picture they paint is bleak: two heavy defeats for the government to different opponents at opposite ends of England.

In the week when Labour leader Keir Starmer took to the stage for the first time with his predecessor Tony Blair, Labour achieved a byelection breakthrough in North Yorkshire worthy of Blair’s mid-1990s prime. Selby and Ainsty’s 20,000-vote Conservative majority is the largest ever overturned by Labour in a byelection, and the swing to Labour was the second largest recorded. Labour comfortably outperformed its current polling with a swing which would decimate the Conservative benches if replicated in a general election. This was the performance of an opposition on its way back into government.

Continue reading...

‘Silly sod’: Starmer laughs off minister’s Inbetweeners jibe at new MP

Johnny Mercer had mocked 25-year-old Keir Mather’s lack of real-world experience after he won the Selby and Ainsty byelection

Sir Keir Starmer has called the government minister Johnny Mercer a “silly sod” who will “soon be history” in politics after he compared Labour’s new 25-year-old MP to a character from the teen sitcom The Inbetweeners.

The minister for veterans’ affairs said Keir Mather had been “dropped into” the Selby and Ainsty constituency and was an “identikit Labour politician”. Earlier he had said: “[Parliament] mustn’t become a repeat of The Inbetweeners.”

Continue reading...

Tory election victory hopes hit by shattering byelection defeats

Starmer hails results as ‘cry for change’ as Sunak’s party loses Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, but clings on in Uxbridge

Rishi Sunak’s chances of guiding the Conservatives to victory at the next general election looked increasingly slim on Friday after his party suffered two shattering byelection defeats.

Labour gained its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945, overturning a 20,000-vote Tory majority in Selby and Ainsty, with the Liberal Democrats also toppling the Conservatives in the previously safe West Country seat of Somerton and Frome.

Continue reading...

Rishi, Keir and Ed triumphant as all three parties win byelection day | John Crace

All the leaders concluded that things had panned out just as they had hoped, if not better

And the winner is … Absolutely everyone. It was the morning after the night before and – slowly, slowly – the leaders of all political parties began to emerge from their bunkers to face the media. And what a tale they had to tell. They had had time to reflect on the results of the three byelections and – amazingly – had all concluded that things had panned out just as they had hoped. Better even. Everyone was on course to win the next general election in 2024 and everyone else was facing an electoral wipeout.

Rishi Sunak was first to show his face in a cafe. “This is an historic day for the Conservatives,” he said. “And also for me. By holding – where am I? This part of London all looks the same to me – Oh, yes, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, I have avoided becoming the first prime minister since Harold Wilson to lose three byelections on the same night. So by only losing two safe seats, I have shown I am on course to win a general election.

Continue reading...

UK byelection results: Labour routs Tories in Selby and Ainsty but falls short in Uxbridge

Keir Mather, 25, is Selby’s next MP, as Labour narrowly fails to take Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Liberal Democrats romp to victory in Somerton and Frome

The Labour party has won its biggest ever byelection victory by overturning a 20,000-vote Conservative majority in Selby and Ainsty, sending a 25-year-old to parliament.

But Keir Starmer’s party failed to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s old constituency. The Conservatives held on to the outer London seat with a majority of 495, the only bit of good news in an otherwise miserable night for Rishi Sunak.

Continue reading...

Voters head to polls in three byelections seen as test of Rishi Sunak’s premiership – UK politics live

Voters are picking new MPs in the constituencies of Somerton and Frome, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Selby and Ainsty

A senior Conservative MP has apologised and deleted a video in which he praised the Taliban and credited them with improving safety in Afghanistan.

Tobias Ellwood said he was “sorry for my poor communication” after his actions outraged fellow Tory MPs and military veterans, and an attempt was launched to challenge his role as chair of the Commons defence select committee.

The last couple of days have probably been the most miserable as a member of parliament. I got it wrong.

It’s not just our members, we’d like him to show that he supports the trade unions, that he supports working people who are struggling, and we think some of the stuff that we’re hearing is a dilution of traditional Labour positions and even the positions that he himself adopted when he was elected as leader.

So the stuff about the two-child cap is not really good enough; it’s taking the side of the Conservatives, it’s taking the side of austerity.

I’m hoping that we’ll get a new deal for workers, the repeal of many of these anti-trade union laws that restrict our rights and our freedoms and that he shows that in terms of funding public services like education, health, care for our elders and addressing the housing crisis that we’ve got in this country that he can do something positive in favour of working people.

If he does that then more people will support him, if he doesn’t then some people might conclude... they may as well have the Tories because there’s not much difference between them.

Continue reading...

Byelection polls open with Rishi Sunak forecasting ‘tough’ fight to save seats

Opposition parties hope to overturn government majorities in three constituencies vacated by Tory MPs amid controversy

Polls have opened in three parliamentary seats where byelections are being held, with Rishi Sunak braced for an electoral test of his premiership.

The Conservative-held constituencies are being targeted by Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who hope to overturn large majorities and send Tory MPs off into the summer recess nervous about their own political futures come the general election.

Continue reading...

‘Even hanging on to one would be a win’: Tories brace for byelection results

Votes in the three very different seats could indicate general election swings and prompt cabinet reshuffle

The Conservatives are braced for painful byelection results in a vote on Thursday that could become a damning verdict on Rishi Sunak’s ability to win a broad enough coalition of voters at the next election to retain his party’s majority.

The party could lose all three of the constituencies that are up for grabs – which each have significantly different demographics that the Tories would need to win – with the prospect of hanging on to just one being touted by senior ministers as a victory.

Continue reading...

Keir Starmer: ‘We can’t win power by spending. We need to reform and create wealth’

Exclusive: Labour leader urges left to ‘care more about growth’ and rules out spending ‘vast sums of money’

Labour will only succeed in winning power and rebuilding Britain if it prioritises economic growth, wealth creation and radical reform of public services over reckless spending promises, says Keir Starmer.

With four days to go before a crucial set of parliamentary byelections, the Labour leader delivers the most robust defence to date of his strategy for returning his party to power after 13 years, in an exclusive article for the Observer. Starmer takes on, directly, those who say his agenda is dull and uninspiring, insisting that the hard grind of rebuilding economic credibility must come first, as opposed to Labour retreating to its normal “comfort zone” of promising “vast sums of money”.

Continue reading...

Labour ‘throwing the kitchen sink’ at Selby byelection as hopes grow of shock win

Keir Starmer’s party believes it can topple Conservative rural strongholds as it competes with the Liberal Democrats in North Yorkshire

Labour is “throwing the kitchen sink” at claiming the Conservative stronghold of Selby and Ainsty, amid growing optimism that it can pull off a shock win that would show its progress in Tory-held rural seats.

The North Yorkshire constituency, which was recently vacated by Boris Johnson ally Nigel Adams, returned a majority of more than 20,000 for the Tories at the last election. Labour had been targeting a strong second place in the seat, to fend off claims that only the Liberal Democrats can take on the Tories in their heartlands.

Continue reading...

Nadine Dorries frustrates Sunak by failing to officially resign as MP

No 10 says constituents in Mid Bedfordshire deserve certainty as it piles pressure on ex-minister to stand down

Downing Street is heaping pressure on Nadine Dorries to stand down as soon as possible, saying her constituents in Mid Bedfordshire deserve certainty.

The former culture secretary said last Friday she would “immediately” step down, after she was denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

Continue reading...

Labour wins West Lancashire byelection with 10% swing

Ashley Dalton retains constituency for Labour after resignation of Rosie Cooper last autumn

Labour has retained the West Lancashire constituency in a byelection called after its MP, Rosie Cooper, resigned last autumn.

Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, won with 14,068 votes. Her comfortable win, securing a 10.2% swing from the Tories, marks Labour’s third byelection victory since Rishi Sunak became prime minister.

Continue reading...

Polls close in West Lancashire byelection

Labour candidate Ashley Dalton odds-on favourite to hold seat after resignation of Rosie Cooper

Polls have closed in the West Lancashire byelection, with Labour confident of retaining the seat it has held since 1992.

The bookies have the party at 1/25 to keep hold of the seat where it had a majority of 8,336 in the last election. A result is expected between 2am and 4am.

Continue reading...