Both Brussels and London have moved in talks, and both grasp the political advantages of even a minimal free trade agreement

• Charles Grant is the director of the Centre for European Reform

After six rounds of talks, the UK and the EU are far from reaching an accord on their future relationship. Both sides are warning that failure – meaning that Britain would leave after the transition period on 31 December without a deal – is a real prospect. Those working for Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, complain that the British have wasted July by refusing to offer meaningful compromises.

Failure is certainly possible. But a deal this year is more likely, for several reasons. First, there has been more progress than one might suppose from the public comments of Barnier and David Frost, the UK negotiator. The EU has hinted at a softer line on fisheries and state aid, and agreed that an arbitration mechanism rather than the European court of justice should adjudicate on disputes.