One expert says many surveys overrepresented poor voters, and far-right supporters may just not respond

Not for the first time, the pollsters got it wrong. Far from being a sweeping win for the left, the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections was much closer than expected, with the country’s far-right president significantly outperforming predictions.

With almost all votes counted on Monday, Jair Bolsonaro’s veteran leftist rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had secured 48.3%, while the populist incumbent was just five percentage points behind on 43.3%, a much narrower margin than most pre-election estimates.

Brazilians will go to the polls again after former president won the first vote but failed to secure a majority over the incumbent

Brazil’s acrimonious presidential race will go to a second round after the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to secure the overall majority he needed to avoid a runoff with the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro.

With more than 99.5% of votes counted the leftist veteran had secured 48.3% of the vote, not enough to avoid the 30 October show down with his rightwing rival. Bolsonaro, who significantly out-performed pollsters’ predictions and will be buoyed by the result, received 43.3%.

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• Lula da Silva wins vote but not outright victory

A Lula victory would represent the latest in a series of triumphs for a resurgent Latin American left, following the election of leftist leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile.

“I’m going to win these elections so I can give the people the right to be happy again. The people need, deserve and have the right … to be happy once more,” Lula told journalists as he wrapped up his campaigning with a parade through the streets of São Paulo on Saturday.

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Lula will go to a runoff election at the end of the month after a tighter than expected first round result

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Brazil’s president is elected directly by the 156 million voters; there is no electoral college and no role for the legislature. A candidate needs more than 50% of the vote to be elected. If this does not happen in the first round, the top two candidates will go into a runoff election at the end of the month.

Supporters of leftwing frontrunner confident he will prevail as 156 million Brazilians cast their votes

Gabriela Leoncio has been waiting for the chance to free Brazil from Jair Bolsonaro for four years. On Sunday that chance came.

“It’s been a joke-slash-tragedy,” the restaurant host, 29, said of the president’s tumultuous far-right administration as she cast her vote against him in her country’s most important election in decades.

But hopes leftwing former president will defeat Jair Bolsonaro tempered by fear a runoff contest could mean weeks of turmoil and violence

Brazil’s former leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the brink of an astonishing political comeback, with polls suggesting he is poised to defeat his far-right rival Jair Bolsonaro in Sunday’s election.

Eve of election polls suggested Lula was within a whisker of securing the overall majority of votes that would guarantee him a first-round victory against Brazil’s radical incumbent, whose calamitous Covid response, assault on the Amazon and foul-mouthed threats to democracy have alienated more than half of the population.

Polls show former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on course for a return to power

It was a scene that could have been plucked from Brazil’s history books: an enraptured crowd, a sea of flags and, on stage above them, a bearded leftist in a bright red shirt.

“The president of hope is here!” the master of ceremonies roared as the star of the show arrived in a police convoy to address the people whose country he is promising to save.

Political violence breaks out in Mato Grosso state after argument between followers of rival presidential candidates

A supporter of Brazil’s far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has stabbed to death a backer of leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the latest instance of rising political tensions in the buildup to this year’s election.

The violence happened in the west-central state of Mato Grosso, after tempers frayed during an argument over support for the two candidates. Bolsonaro trails Lula in the polls in an election riven by intense polarisation.