With no diplomatic ‘off-ramp’ the stage is set for more strikes and counter-strikes from an opponent unlikely to bend the knee

It is now clear that last Tuesday’s exploding pager operation was just a first step. What is now unfolding is an Israeli strategy of military escalation against Hezbollah, premised on the risky belief that the militant group can be bombed into a ceasefire before fighting in Gaza ends.

Monday’s wave of airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 558 people and displaced many thousands, and there is little sign of the campaign slowing. Israel’s air force has said it had dropped 2,000 bombs in 24 hours – and there can be little doubt that this is now a full-on war, though it is not yet an all-out conflict.