Can you capture the complex reality of the pandemic with numbers? Well, we tried… | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Throughout 2021, two leading lights of the Royal Statistical Society Covid-19 Task Force drew on data for a weekly Observer column, and found themselves in the middle of Covid culture wars

Individual experiences and suffering are, of course, at the heart of the pandemic. But one way to understand what has happened is through putting those experiences together – and statistics are those personal stories writ large. And this pandemic has brought unprecedented demand to explain all the numbers that have been flying around.

This has not been without its problems and we’ve had to learn some hard lessons, such as the journalistic skill of brevity. Since January 2021, we’ve been writing a weekly column in this paper about Covid numbers, covering everything from infections to deaths, vaccines to mental health, masks to lockdowns.

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Britain got it wrong on Covid: long lockdown did more harm than good, says scientist

A new book outlines the mistakes and missteps that made UK pandemic worse

There was a distinctive moment, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, that neatly encapsulated the mistakes and confusion of Britain’s early efforts to tackle the disease, says Mark Woolhouse. At a No 10 briefing in March 2020, cabinet minister Michael Gove warned the virus did not discriminate. “Everyone is at risk,” he announced.

And nothing could be further from the truth, argues Professor Woolhouse, an expert on infectious diseases at Edinburgh University. “I am afraid Gove’s statement was simply not true,” he says. “In fact, this is a very discriminatory virus. Some people are much more at risk from it than others. People over 75 are an astonishing 10,000 times more at risk than those who are under 15.”

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Trump acolytes vie for key election oversight posts in US midterms

Swing state races for governor and secretary of state are the most consequential midterm contests

When Americans go to the polls in the 2022 midterms, the most important elections won’t be for office in Washington. The most high-stakes races will be statewide contests, in some cases for long overlooked offices, that have profound consequences for the future of free and fair elections in America.

The races for governor and secretary of state, the chief election official in many places, will determine which officials have control over setting election rules and the post-election certification process.

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‘I would have bought stock in Zoom!’: experts on wisdom (and regrets) for a new year of Covid

As we greet a third calendar year of pandemic life, experts who helped us make sense of the past two years discuss lessons learned, and wisdom to carry forward

If 2020 was a year of fear and isolation, 2021 marked one of return – a road toward something like “normal”, despite so many hairpin turns. The mass distribution of Covid-19 vaccines did not restore the norms of pre-pandemic life, as many had hoped, but it did change the rules of engagement. Time and again, people adapted.

As we greet a third calendar year of pandemic life, the Guardian turned to experts across disciplines who have helped the rest of us make sense of the past two years for lessons learned, and wisdom to carry forward.

Jessica Richards is the founder of the trend forecasting firm JMR Trend + Creative.

Sydney Mintle is the founder of fashion marketing and public relations firm Gossip & Glamour.

Thomas Plante is a professor of psychology at Santa Clara University.

Kelly Hills is a bioethicist and co-founder of the bioethics consulting firm Rogue Bioethics.

Barbara J Sahakian is a professor of psychiatry at the University of Cambridge.

Saskia Popescu is an infectious disease epidemiologist and assistant professor at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

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Ghislaine Maxwell, the Demon Queen, is behind bars. Does she have a secret that could unlock her shackles?

Our writer sat through the trial in New York and reports on the humiliation of the mwah-mwah princess, her repeated failures to end Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse and the chances of her cutting a deal with the Feds

Guilty, five times over, Ghislaine Maxwell, shackled, sits in the sweat box as it crawls over Brooklyn Bridge along with the rest of the rush-hour little people she used to fly over, saying a last goodbye to the Imperial City’s billion-dollar stalagmites. The one-time Princess Mwah-Mwah is now the Demon Queen, facing 30 years, the rest of her life in prison, not some Disneyland of rightwing fantasy but a bone pit of the bad, the mad and the broken locked up until the end of age.

She has a secret key that could unlock her shackles. What if she sings, tells the feds what she knows, gives up the overmighty men who, along with her one-time lover Jeffrey Epstein, abused women more child than adult back in her pomp? She could cut her jail time down to 10 years and be out in seven, thanks to good behaviour.

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Retrieved after decades: the painting supposedly ‘bought’ by the Nazis

A new book recounts one woman’s struggle to find looted art – and then convince a major museum to give it back

Fresh proof that the Nazis set up fake auctions and phoney paperwork to disguise their looting of art and valuable possessions has been uncovered by an amateur sleuth researching her own family mystery.

French writer Pauline Baer de Perignon’s investigation has revealed the fate of a missing collection of art that included work by Monet, Renoir and Degas and also exposed the reluctance of Europe’s leading museums to accept evidence of the deceit.

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New studies reinforce belief that Omicron is less likely to damage lungs

Six research groups’ findings all suggest variant multiplies more in throats and causes less serious disease

A growing body of evidence indicates that the Omicron Covid variant is more likely to infect the throat than the lungs, which scientists believe may explain why it appears to be more infectious but less deadly than other versions of the virus. Six studies – four published since Christmas Eve – have found that Omicron does not damage people’s lungs as much as the Delta and other previous variants of Covid. The studies have yet to be peer-reviewed by other scientists.

“The result of all the mutations that make Omicron different from previous variants is that it may have altered its ability to infect different sorts of cells,” said Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London.

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US judge delivers double setback to Prince Andrew’s abuse case battle

Pressure grows on duke to settle alleged victim’s claim before key hearing this week

Two of Prince Andrew’s efforts to prevent or stall the progression of Virginia Roberts Giuffre’s sex assault lawsuit against him were blocked on Saturday when a US federal judge ordered the prince’s lawyers to turn over key legal documents, increasing pressure to settle claims before a crucial court hearing this week.

Judge Lewis A Kaplan, in a written order, told the prince’s lawyers they must turn over documents on the schedule that has been set in the lawsuit brought by Guiffre who claims she was abused – aged 17 – by the prince on multiple occasions in 2001 while she was being sexually abused by financier Jeffrey Epstein.

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Covid live: England reports another record rise in cases; UAE to ban non-vaccinated from travelling abroad

England records 162,572 cases and 154 deaths; fully vaccinated would also require booster shot

Russia has reported 847 deaths from Covid in the past 24 hours. It also reported 19,751 new coronavirus cases in the same time period, up from 20,638 on the previous day.

The NHS Confederation’s chief executive, Matthew Taylor, agreed with the health secretary the record-breaking Omicron wave of infection will “test the limits of finite NHS capacity even more than a typical winter”, with reports suggesting that a requirement to work from home in England could be in place for most of January.

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How much longer can China keep up its zero-Covid strategy?

As Beijing pursues its solitary path, observers are asking whether the policy is about protecting public health – or social order

Desperate residents in China’s western Xi’an city are running out of food after they were barred from grocery shopping in a fierce lockdown. In the southern province of Guangxi, people who broke Covid laws were recently publicly shamed by being paraded through the streets in Hazmat suits with placards round their necks.

The rest of the world is learning, slowly and with some difficulty, to live with Covid-19, but in China, authorities are doubling down on their “zero-Covid” policy: trying to stamp out the disease whenever it appears, and at any cost. A single case in a border town led to 200,000 people being locked down late last month.

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Exploding New Year’s Eve fireworks kill two in Germany and Austria

Several more injured in separate incidents despite Germany introducing ban this year on sale of fireworks for personal use

Exploding fireworks killed two men on New Year’s Eve, one in Germany and the other in Austria, according to local media.

A 37-year-old man died in Hennef, near Germany’s western city of Bonn. A 39-year-old was severely injured in the same incident and taken to hospital.

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Frozen in time: clock that tells tale of Jewish resistance in wartime Amsterdam

Artefacts from hideout of family sent to Auschwitz death camp with Anne Frank and her family are put on display in Netherlands

A clock that is the sole surviving object from a second world war Jewish hideout will go on display at Amsterdam’s Dutch Resistance Museum this year.

The round mantelpiece clock may have been one of the last things people saw as they were seized by the Nazis and sent to death camps.

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Desmond Tutu’s daughter leads tributes as South African cleric laid to rest – video

Relatives and clergy members at the funeral for Desmond Tutu paid tribute to the Nobel peace prize-winning equality activist, who was revered in Africa for his role in ending apartheid. Tutu's small plain pine coffin, the cheapest available at his request to avoid any ostentatious displays, was the centre of the service, which also is featuring African choirs, prayers and incense

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Desmond Tutu laid to rest at state funeral in Cape Town

Ceremony takes place in cathedral the South African cleric and Nobel laureate turned into centre of struggle against racial injustice

Just after noon, as the voices of the choir filled the cathedral, the mourners stood, bowed their heads in the direction of the plain wooden casket and then filed out on to Cape Town’s streets.

The requiem mass for Desmond Tutu, who died aged 90 six days ago, had lasted much of the morning, long enough for a celebration of a life that has inspired tens of millions around the world, a final farewell from his compatriots, and for the unexpected rainclouds that had shrouded his home city overnight to clear.

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Pope calls for end to violence against women in new year message

Celebrating mass in St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican, Francis says violence against women is insult to God

Pope Francis has used his new year’s message to call for an end to violence against women, saying it was an insult to God.

Celebrating mass in St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican, on the day the Roman Catholic church marks its annual World Day of Peace, Francis wove his new year’s homily around the themes of motherhood and women, saying it was they who kept the threads of life together.

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Haiti’s New Year’s Day soup has made headlines. But let’s not be naive about its symbolism

Sharing soup joumou on 1 January represents what Haitians bring to the world – but remembering that inequality prevails is arguably more important

Whispers. Curfews. Never-ending military parades and shows of arms. Opponents’ bodies exposed for children to see as some sort of macabre art. And always, that nasal voice of “Papa Doc”, François Duvalier, chanting on all radio stations. Those were the days of my childhood under a dictator in Haiti.

But on 1 January, Independence Day, there were three things that made a difference.

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Boris Johnson quits as world runs out of Greek letters? Our supporters’ predictions for 2022

We asked the Guardian’s 1m supporters to make their predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what they said

• New year, new resolve: become a Guardian supporter

Boris Johnson steps down, to be replaced by David Frost – or Jeremy Hunt, or Michael Gove, or Peppa Pig. French presidential elections are beset by civil unrest over pandemic restrictions. Russia mounts some kind of incursion in eastern Ukraine. China waits for an opportune moment to overrun Taiwan.

And the world runs out of Greek letters to attach to Covid variants.

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The art of Yves Saint Laurent: design house marks 60th anniversary

Five Paris museums to display fashion designer’s creations with artwork that inspired them

Simultaneous exhibitions to mark the 60th anniversary of Yves Saint Laurent’s first collection are to be held by six leading Paris museums in an unprecedented tribute from the art world to the late French fashion designer.

The events at museums, among them the Louvre and the Musée d’Orsay, will reveal how the celebrated couturier was inspired by some of the 20th century’s greatest artists including Picasso, Matisse and Mondrian.

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New Year’s Eve: Times Square crowds return, NYC hails new mayor and Miley Cyrus battles wardrobe malfunction

New York tradition brings some normalcy as coronavirus pandemic leads to cancellation of shows around the world

A Miley Cyrus wardrobe malfunction, a celebrity rant about outgoing New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio, and the traditional dropping of a six-tonne ball in Times Square were among the highlights as America welcomed the new year, and bid good riddance to the old one.

The New Year’s Eve tradition of crowds at Times Square returned this year, though with only 15,000 of the usual 60,000 spectators there to watch the ball, encrusted with nearly 2,700 Waterford crystals, descend as couples embraced, some still wearing their masks.

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Why does Austria stay silent over dual national’s arrest six years ago in Iran?

Iranian-Austrian Kamran Ghaderi is serving a 10-year sentence for spying and his family are still waiting for answers

Six years ago on New Year’s Day, an Iranian-Austrian IT businessman said goodbye to his wife and three children and boarded a flight from Vienna to Tehran via Istanbul. Kamran Ghaderi was due to return five to six days later, but instead, on 2 January 2016, he was arrested and has now spent six years in Evin prison in Tehran.

In October 2016, he was sentenced to 10 years for spying for a foreign country at a trial in which neither he nor his lawyer were able to say more than two words. His sentencing was based on a confession he gave under what his wife, Harika, says was torture, in the belief she might be in danger. No written judgment has ever been given to his family.

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