Monday briefing: Why the brutal fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo could spiral into wider war

In today’s newsletter: As Rwandan-backed M23 rebels seize more territory and the humanitarian crisis worsens, what’s the background to the war and prospect of peace?

Good morning. Over the weekend, the presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda – Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame – were among those who took part in a regional summit aimed at ending the resurgent violence in eastern DRC. The summit ended with a call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. But while there was a lull in the fighting yesterday, many fear that a ceasefire is less likely than escalation to a wider regional war.

Rwanda does not officially admit to its involvement in the latest episode of the long-running and devastating conflict in eastern DRC. But M23, an armed group with Rwanda’s tacit and practical support, has taken the capital of North Kivu province, Goma, and is now moving south to expand the territory under its control. At stake is control of a mineral-rich region of crucial strategic significance, and the fate of civilians there who are frequently the subject of ethnically targeted attacks – but also the question of whether national borders can act as any sort of constraint.

Arms trade | Britain’s system for controlling arms exports is broken, subject to political manipulation and has seen conduct that crossed the threshold into complicity with war crimes, a former UK diplomat has claimed. Mark Smith said officials were instructed to manipulate findings on the misuse of UK arms by allies.

Immigration | The Home Office is launching a fresh wave of immigration raids as Labour attempts to counter the growing political threat from Reform UK. Amid anger from critics who believe the approach echoes Theresa May’s “hostile environment” regime, the government will broadcast footage of deportations from detention to removal centres and on to waiting planes.

Israel-Gaza war | Israeli forces have withdrawn from the strategic corridor that divides northern and southern Gaza, as part of a ceasefire plan that has brought a fragile pause to the 16-month war. Despite the withdrawal – and the release of hostages and prisoners – little progress has been made on negotiating the second phase of the deal.

Air pollution | More than 1,100 people a year in the UK are developing the most prevalent form of lung cancer as a result of air pollution, the Guardian can reveal. Health experts, cancer charities and environmental campaigners said the UK findings were “devastating”

Trump tariffs | Donald Trump has said he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US on Monday that would affect “everybody’, including its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.

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Kosovo faces political uncertainty as ruling party fails to secure election majority

PM Albin Kurti claims ‘victory’ and vows to form government but analysts warn of prolonged crisis and instability

The governing party of the prime minister, Albin Kurti, is on track to secure the most seats in Kosovo’s parliament but will lack the numbers for a majority, the election commission has said.

Sunday’s vote pitted Kurti’s campaign to stamp out the influence of Serbia, more than 15 years after Kosovo declared independence, against the opposition’s vow to boost the economy in one of the poorest corners of Europe.

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Yrjö Kukkapuro, renowned Finnish chair designer, dies aged 91

‘Almost every Finn has sat on a chair he designed,’ his studio says, with his postmodern creations gracing galleries around the world

Yrjö Kukkapuro, a renowned Finnish designer whose postmodern style of chairs graced waiting rooms, offices and living rooms across Finland as well as collections in the Museum of Modern Art in New York and the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, has died aged 91.

Kukkapuro died on Saturday at his home outside Helsinki, his daughter, Isa Kukkapuro-Enbom, confirmed in an email on Sunday, as well as in a statement from Studio Kukkapuro, where she is the curator. The cause of death was not disclosed.

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Freed Israeli hostage did not know of wife and daughters’ deaths, British family confirms

An Israeli soldier broke the news to Eli Sharabi on Saturday, after almost 500 days in captivity

The freed Israeli hostage Eli Sharabi did not know his wife and two teenage daughters were killed in the 7 October attack until after his release, his British family have confirmed.

An Israeli soldier broke the news about what had happened to his wife, Lianne, who grew up near Bristol, and their two British-Israeli children Noiya, 16, and Yahel, 13, after Sharabi and two other hostages were released by Hamas in exchange for 183 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday.

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Man arrested after three people injured in suspected knife attack in Dublin

Three men taken to hospital, two with serious injuries, after incident in Stoneybatter neighbourhood

A man has been arrested after three people were injured in a suspected knife attack that has left a Dublin neighbourhood in “a state of shock”.

Irish police said they were responding to a serious incident after about 3pm on Sunday.

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Britain’s system for controlling arms exports is broken, former diplomat claims

Ex-Foreign Office official says he saw conduct that ‘crossed the threshold into complicity with war crimes’

Britain’s system for controlling arms exports is broken, subject to political manipulation and has seen conduct that crossed the threshold into complicity with war crimes, a former UK diplomat has claimed.

Writing for the Guardian, Mark Smith, who resigned from the Foreign Office in August, said officials were instructed to manipulate findings on the misuse of UK arms by allies, and if they did not do so, their reports were edited by senior colleagues to give the impression that the UK was in compliance with the law.

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Ecuador goes to the polls amid rise in drug-related gang violence

Voters who have become victims of crime wave linked to cocaine trade will determine outcome of presidential election

Ecuadorians are voting in a presidential election that has shaped up to be a repeat of the 2023 race, when they chose a young, conservative millionaire over the former leftist president’s protege.

Luisa González and the incumbent, Daniel Noboa, are the clear frontrunners in the pool of 16 candidates. All have promised to reduce the widespread crime that pushed the country into an unnerving new normal four years ago.

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Middle East crisis live: Israeli military completes withdrawal from Netzarim Corridor

Forces withdraw from area that bisects the northern and southern halves of the Gaza Strip to the buffer zone, as part of ceasefire agreement with Hamas

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry has rejected Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks about displacing Palestinians from their land, Reuters reports.

Israeli officials have suggested the establishment of a Palestinian state on Saudi territory. Netanyahu appeared to be joking on Thursday when he responded to an interviewer on pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 who mistakenly said “Saudi state” instead of “Palestinian state”, before correcting himself.

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Emilia Pérez wins top Spanish film prize amid Karla Sofía Gascón furore

Best European film at Goya awards goes to musical at centre of storm over past social media posts written by its star

The multi-Oscar-nominated narco-musical Emilia Pérez, whose success has been overshadowed by the emergence of a series of racist and Islamophobic social media posts written by its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, won best European film at Spain’s prestigious Goya awards on Saturday night.

Gascón, the first out transgender woman to be nominated for a best actress Oscar, stayed away from the ceremony after posts came to light in which she called George Floyd “a drug addict swindler”, denigrated China, and said Islam was “becoming a hotbed of infection for humanity”.

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Trump’s claim that Mexican cartels and government are allied is not reality

Corruption in Mexico is a problem, experts say, but any claim the two are linked shows a lack of comprehension

Mexico breathed a sigh of relief this week when Donald Trump delayed his threatened tariffs by a month, apparently swerving away from an economic crisis at the last moment.

But one aspect of the spat still rankles: the Trump administration’s vague but shocking accusation of an “intolerable alliance” between Mexico’s government and organised crime.

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Gaunt Israelis and Palestinians freed under fifth ceasefire exchange

Weakened state of three freed Israelis shocks country, while several released Palestinians also need hospitalisation

Hamas freed three hostages from Gaza and Israel released 183 prisoners and detainees on Saturday, the fifth exchange under a fragile, three-week-old ceasefire deal.

The gaunt appearance of the three Israeli men shocked the country, sparking anger and dismay that could increase pressure on the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to extend the agreement to a second stage, bringing home the remaining Israeli captives.

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‘I’m picturing my death’: alarm as RFK Jr closes in on health secretary role

The Trump ally’s health plans have delighted his supporters – but others are horrified by the potential for harm

Americans suspicious of modern medicine and the status quo are watching Robert F Kennedy Jr’s nomination to secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) with a mixture of glee, astonishment and skepticism.

Last week, Kennedy used his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee to demonstrate how fully his wellness agenda, Make America Healthy Again, and Trumpism had fused – often to the delight of supporters.

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‘This time, we stay’: the Palestinian families vowing not to leave Gaza

Defiant Gazans reject Trump’s resettlement plan after enduring 15 months of conflict

Saaed Salem’s eyes filled with tears as he surveyed the remains of his north Gaza neighbourhood on a freezing February morning. He was resting in a chair that had somehow survived the war, surrounded by grandchildren and rubble, his hope for the future and the ruins of his past.

His family had lost one home in 1948, when they fled Hirbiya village, now the site of Zikim kibbutz inside Israel, to escape shelling and reports of atrocities by Israeli forces.

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Sam Nujoma, Namibia’s first president, dies aged 95

Charismatic father of the nation led the fight for independence from South Africa and ruled for 15 years as the country’s first president

Sam Nujoma, the fiery freedom fighter who led Namibia to independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990 and served as its first president for 15 years, has died aged 95.

Nujoma’s death was announced Sunday by current Namibian president Nangolo Mbumba. Mbumba said Nujoma died on Saturday night after being hospitalised in the capital, Windhoek.

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Millionaire accused over 2017 murder of Maltese journalist freed on bail

Family of Daphne Caruana Galizia condemn delays in bringing Yorgen Fenech to trial after arrest in 2019

A millionaire businessman charged with the 2017 murder of the Maltese anti-corruption journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia has been released on bail with no date set for his trial.

Yorgen Fenech, the heir to a casino and hotels group, was arrested and charged with complicity to kill Caruana Galizia in November 2019. However, delays in bringing the case before a jury have allowed his lawyers to successfully argue for bail.

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Israel and Hamas complete fifth hostage-prisoner swap

Release of three Israeli hostages and 183 Palestinian prisoners comes as next phase of ceasefire set to begin

Israel and Hamas completed their fifth hostage-prisoner swap under a fragile Gaza ceasefire deal, with the frail, disoriented appearance of the three freed Israelis sparking dismay among their relatives.

Out of the 183 inmates released by Israel in return, the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club advocacy group said seven required hospitalisation, decrying “brutality” and mistreatment in jail.

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Rwandan and Congolese leaders join summit on eastern DRC conflict

Leaders from across Africa call for immediate ceasefire at cross-party summit in Tanzania

A summit of regional leaders has called for an immediate unconditional ceasefire within five days in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Rwandan president, Paul Kagame, and the president of the DRC, Felix Tshisekedi, joined a summit in Tanzania on Saturday, where African leaders said they were deeply concerned by the crisis.

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Trump cuts aid to South Africa over ‘racial discrimination’ against Afrikaners

US president also offers asylum to Afrikaners and criticises law that allows land seizures without compensation in some circumstances

The US president, Donald Trump, has signed an executive order to cut financial assistance to South Africa, accusing the country’s government of “unjust racial discrimination” against white Afrikaners and offering them asylum in the US.

The order criticised a law signed by the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, last month that allows for land to be expropriated with “nil compensation” in limited circumstances.

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Thousands of Syrians in limbo as UK Home Office freezes asylum claims

Two months after the fall of Assad’s regime, Whitehall’s decision to pause asylum applications from Syrians has left more than 6,600 cases stuck on hold in the UK

More than 6,000 Syrians in Britain are stuck in limbo because of an ongoing freeze on their asylum claims, two months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The Home Office announced a “pause” on Syrian asylum seekers’ claims on 9 December, the day after rebels swept into Damascus, saying that it needed to “assess the current situation”.

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Gaza ceasefire live: Netanyahu denounces ‘shocking’ images of freed hostages; Palestinian prisoners and detainees to be released

Palestinian prisoners and detainees will be freed later after Or Levy, Eli Sharabi and Ohad Ben Ami were handed to the Red Cross

A small crowd has gathered at Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square, which will only grow as the release of Ohad Ben Ami, Or Levy and Eli Sharabi draws closer, Israel’s Haaretz newspaper is reporting.

The people are holding signs with posters of the three hostages, and one is holding a homemade sign reading “I’m sorry that it took so long, welcome back”.

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