In today’s newsletter: The former prime minister is close to winning office less than 18 months after losing it, in Israel’s fifth election in four years. This is how he pulled it off

Good morning. When Benjamin Netanyahu lost power last June, he insisted he would be back. “With God’s help,” he said in a valedictory speech, “that will happen much sooner than you think.” 16 months later, he looks all but certain to be prime minister of Israel again.

The count of the votes in the country’s fifth election in four years will not be completed until later today, and coalition talks could take weeks to complete. But by the tally so far, Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud party is the largest group in the Knesset – and the broad coalition formed to topple him last year looks likely to be thrown into opposition.

Asylum | The Home Office abandoned asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre in central London without accommodation or warm clothing, the Guardian can reveal. Amid acute overcrowding at Manston, charity volunteers said 11 people were left at Victoria station on Tuesday evening with nowhere to stay.

Interest rates | Mortgage rates are expected to jump on Thursday in response to the largest increase in the Bank of England’s base rate since 1989, as the central bank tries to bring down inflation. The base interest rate is expected to go up by 0.75 percentage points to 3%.

Poverty | The United Nations’ poverty envoy has warned Rishi Sunak that a new wave of austerity in this month’s budget could violate the UK’s international human rights obligations and increase hunger. Olivier de Schutter said he was “extremely troubled” by likely multibillion-pound spending cuts.

Policing | Two Metropolitan police officers have been sentenced to three months’ imprisonment after sharing racist, homophobic, misogynistic and ableist messages in a WhatsApp group with Wayne Couzens before he murdered Sarah Everard. The two men were bailed ahead of an appeal.

Media | Eric Allison, who became the Guardian’s prison correspondent aged 60 after spending much of his life in jail, has died aged 79. Former Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger said Allison “cast a steady light on a world successive governments would rather were kept in the dark”.

Israeli politics has been shifting rightwards for decades, but this new coalition could go further than any before

An hour after the election exit polls predicted a comeback for former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night, Israel’s Channel 13 switched from vote count drama to its satirical late-night current affairs show, Wonderful Country.

The host was immediately joined by a comedian sporting round glasses, a yellow tie, white kippah and bulging fake belly, made up to look like the country’s new political kingmaker, the extremist Itamar Ben-Gvir. Brandishing a pistol – as Ben-Gvir did recently in a Palestinian neighbourhood of occupied East Jerusalem – he danced his way across the set before taking a seat.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s chances of returning to office in this week’s elections depend on alliance with far-right

Everyone in the small courtroom on the second floor of Jerusalem’s district court is tired of straining their necks to look at the decade-old receipts for whiskey, cognac and cigars displayed on a screen. Even the key witness in one of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s three corruption trials, is clearly bored with answering questions about how often her boss used to send expensive presents to Israel’s long-time leader.

The 73-year-old’s absence hangs over the proceedings in much the same way his pugnacious brand of politics still haunts Israeli public life. While the panel of judges peered at slide after slide of photocopied invoices on that warm day in September, the subject of their investigation was already out on the campaign trail, executing his comeback.