In today’s newsletter: As an assault on a key route for aid is underway, we look at how the humanitarian crisis will unfold and the prospects for a ceasefire

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Good morning. Israel has threatened to expand its military operation in Rafah after it seized control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing – which was the key remaining land route to get desperately needed aid into Gaza, where millions of people are suffering an escalating humanitarian crisis.

The Israeli military said it had taken “operational control” of the border with Egypt in a “precise and limited operation”, but gave notice that it will soon be followed by an “extreme force” ground offensive that the UN warns could lead to the “slaughter of civilians”. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has begun dropping flyers on relief camps in Rafah, ordering Palestinians – many of whom have already fled the conflict, sometimes several times – to immediately evacuate.

Israel-Gaza war | Joe Biden’s administration paused a shipment of weapons to Israel last week in opposition to apparent moves by the Israelis to invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah, a senior administration official has said. Israel has launched a major military offensive against Hamas forces in Gaza’s southernmost city, seizing control of a key border crossing and cutting off most aid a day before indirect talks on a ceasefire deal are due to restart.

US | Donald Trump’s criminal trial entered a new stage on Tuesday with testimony from Stormy Daniels, an adult film star at the center of his hush-money scandal. Daniels told jurors that she had a sexual liaison with Trump in 2006 that left her nervous and ashamed.

Scotland | The new Scottish National party leader John Swinney will become Scotland’s seventh first minister after winning the backing of MSPs. Swinney won the vote eight days after Humza Yousaf announced his departure.

Health | The Cass review “absolutely” did not set an unfairly high bar for evidence, its author has said, as she addressed “significant misinformation” about her assessment of healthcare provision for gender-questioning young people in England and Wales.

Garrick Club | The men-only Garrick Club in London has finally voted to allow women to become members, 193 years after it first opened its doors. 562 members (59.98%) voted in favour and 375 (40.02%) against, in a private meeting where several hundred members spent two hours debating whether to permit women to join.