Russian forces could regain initiative as Ukraine war drags on

With western tanks yet to arrive, invaders may be in a better position in early spring than Ukrainian defenders

A fresh Russian assault around the southern Donbas town of Vuhledar, which began towards the end of January, demonstrates that Moscow’s forces are becoming more capable before a critical – and increasingly uncertain – spring period.

Russian forces have not yet made significant gains across the open fields of the region, where the Ukrainians have been dug in for months. But in parallel with the seemingly never-ending Wagner Group-led assault on Bakhmut, 70 miles to the north-east, it shows the invaders trying to push forward at a second point.

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Poland open to sending fighter jets to Kyiv, says PM, if part of Nato decision – as it happened

Mateusz Morawiecki would supply F-16 fighters if decision were taken with Nato allies. This live blog is closed

The Ministry of Defence says Russia’s role as a “reliable arms exporter” is “highly likely” being undermined by its invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions.

In the latest intelligence update published on Thursday morning, the MoD said prior to the invasion Russia’s share of the international arms market was declining.

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Calls for bigger windfall tax after Shell makes ‘obscene’ $40bn profit

Sunak government under pressure after gas prices fuel ‘outrageous’ doubling of profits at Anglo-Dutch group

The government is under pressure to rethink its windfall tax on energy companies after Shell reported one of the largest profits in UK corporate history, with the surge in energy prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushing the oil company’s annual takings to $40bn (£32bn).

Opposition parties and trade unions described Shell’s bonanza, the biggest in its 115 year history, as “outrageous” and accused Rishi Sunak of letting fossil fuel companies “off the hook”.

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Russia planning major offensive to mark first anniversary of war: Ukraine defence minister

Oleksii Reznikov said that as many as 500,000 troops may have been mobilised by Russia as he calls for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine

Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.

Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would call on a large contingent of mobilised troops. Referring to Russia’s general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted soldiers in September last year, he claimed that numbers at the border suggest the true size could be closer to 500,000.

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Sending British fighter jets to Ukraine not right approach ‘for now’, says UK defence secretary – as it happened

Ben Wallace says UK has not made a ‘solid decision’ not to send fighter jets but Downing Street appeared to rule it out as not ‘practical’. This live blog is closed

Russian state-owned news agency Tass is reporting that Col Vitaly Kiselev, who it terms a military expert from the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), has said that pro-Russian forces have surrounded the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut on three sides.

It quotes him saying “Bakhmut has practically been ‘embraced’ from three sides, an intensive knocking out of the enemy is underway.”

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Head of Kyiv tax authority accused of multimillion-dollar fraud

Allegations follow raid on one of unnamed woman’s four homes as part of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s anti-corruption campaign

The woman leading the Kyiv tax authority has been accused of a multimillion-dollar fraud after a raid on one of her four homes as Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s campaign against state corruption in Ukraine continues.

The development came as Ukraine’s president prepares for a Friday summit in the country’s capital with senior EU officials to discuss potential accession to the bloc of 27 member states.

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How would F-16 fighter jets aid Ukraine against Russia?

Germany says supplying fighter jets to Ukraine is a step too far for west

The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a lightweight fighter aircraft that was initially designed as long ago as the 1970s. It first went into service in 1979, and was used heavily by the US airforce in both Iraq wars and in Afghanistan.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: France to send extra howitzers; military casualties from both sides ‘total 200,000’

Western official at military briefing says similar number of people killed and wounded on each side

Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne offers this summary of events of the last 24 hours in its Telegram bulletin today. It writes:

At night, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses, farm buildings and a power line were damaged. There are no injured.

Over the past day, three people were injured in Donetsk region due to Russian shelling. In the Zaporizhzhia region, 14 settlements were shelled during the day, seven in the Kherson region.

In the last three days, Russia has likely developed its probing attacks around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more concerted assault. Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.

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No 10 warns public of ‘significant disruption’ tomorrow because of mass strikes – as it happened

This blog has now closed, you can read more on this story here

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, was not exactly on message in his Sky News interview with Kay Burley this morning. As well as implying that he thought the bullying inquiry into Dominic Raab was a mistake (see 10.37am), he made at least three other comments that suggest Rishi Sunak does not have the enthusiastic support of all his backbenchers.

Rees-Mogg said that Sunak was performing “perfectly competently” as PM. Asked how he was doing, Rees-Mogg replied: “I think he’s doing perfectly competently.” When Burley put it to him that that was not much of an endorsement, Rees-Mogg went on: “I made no bones about the fact I thought Boris Johnson was a better prime minister and I wanted him to remain.”

Rees-Mogg criticised the government for stalling the Northern Ireland protocol bill. The bill, which is popular with hardline Brexiters but widely seen as contrary to international law, because it would allow the UK to unilaterally ignore some of the provisions in the protocol treaty, passed through the Commons when Boris Johnson was PM. But it is stuck in the Lords, where it has not been debated since October and where a date has not been set for its report stage. Sunak has shelved it because he wants to negotiate a compromise on the protocol with the EU, and passing the bill would make agreement much harder. But Rees-Mogg said the government should pass it. He said:

The government has just got to get on with it. There’s a bill that has been through the House of Commons that is waiting its report stage in the House of Lords and I don’t understand why the government hasn’t brought it forward.

He renewed his criticism of the strikes (minimum service levels) bill. When MPs debated it last night, Rees-Mogg said he agreed with Labour criticisms of the Henry VIII powers in the bill.

The government doesn’t know what changes it will have to make once this bill is passed. Under clause 3, the secretary of state would be able to make regulations that “amend, repeal or revoke provision made by or under primary legislation passed before this act or later in the same session of parliament as this act”. This is a supercharged Henry VIII clause. Why should MPs or peers pay any attention to any related legislation that may be brought before them later in this session when they know that, unless they object, a secretary of state may simply amend, repeal or revoke it?

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Belgian buyer of Europe’s spare tanks hopes they see action in Ukraine

OIP built up a huge private arsenal, banking on there one day being demand for the weapons again

On the outskirts of Tournai, a sleepy medieval town in the gentle, Brueghelian landscape of the French-speaking part of Belgium, there is an unassuming grey hangar, barely hidden behind a fence. Inside are rows upon rows of German-made Leopard 1 tanks and other heavy fighting vehicles – some of the same types of weapons that top Ukraine’s military wishlist.

The hangar belongs to the Belgium defence company OIP and contains one of the biggest privately owned reserves of weapons in Europe. “Many of these tanks have been sitting here for years. Hopefully, now it is the time they finally see some action in Ukraine,” said Freddy Versluys, the head of OIP, as he toured the hangar.

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Poland could supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters, Kyiv suggests

Ukraine official reports ‘positive signals’ from Warsaw – but Poland stresses it will only act in consultation with Nato allies

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters as Ukraine’s lobbying for the combat jets steps up only a few days after Germany and the US agreed to send over their tanks.

Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had had “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Kremlin warns west that sending more weapons to Kyiv will lead to ‘significant escalation’ – as it happened

Kremlin spokesperson says supply of arms to Kyiv from west has led to Nato becoming more directly involved in the conflict

Here are some of the latest images to be sent to us from Ukraine over the news wires.

This is Martin Belam in London taking over the live blog from my colleague Samantha Lock in Sydney. You can email me at martin.belam@theguardian.com

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Australia and France agree arms deal for Ukraine as talks seek to bury Aukus debacle

The countries will jointly supply thousands of artillery shells to Kyiv to kickstart ‘new cooperation between defence industries’

Australia and France have agreed a deal to jointly manufacture and supply thousands of artillery shells to the Ukrainian army, the defence and foreign ministers of the two countries announced on Monday.

The agreement, “worth several million (Australian) dollars”, was announced after bilateral talks in Paris aimed at resetting the relationship between the two countries seriously damaged by the 2021 Aukus affair.

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Ukrainian man goes on trial in France over theft of £1.3m painting found in Kyiv

Paul Signac’s Le Port de La Rochelle was lifted from a museum in 2018 and found a year later by Kviv police in an unconnected raid

A Ukrainian man has gone on trial in France accused of masterminding the theft of a €1.5m (£1.3m) painting discovered in a house in Kyiv a year after it disappeared from a museum in Nancy.

The work by Paul Signac, Le Port de La Rochelle, went missing from the Musée de Beaux-Arts in Nancy, north-east France, in 2018.

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‘We’re fighting for a free future’: the Chechen battalions siding with Kyiv

Fighters of Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion oppose Putin and his strongman Ramzan Kadyrov as they battle with Ukrainian prejudice

For all their efforts fighting for Ukraine in the eastern city of Bakhmut, if the Chechen volunteers’ Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion was a football club it would be Millwall. Nobody likes us, their fans sing, and “we don’t care”, says Tor, 38, with a laugh.

“Once I heard from one Ukrainian: ‘You can do what do you want here in Ukraine, but you will still in our opinion be terrorists and gangsters,’” says the Chechen private, who asked to be identified only by his call sign. “And I said: ‘You know what [is] the difference between me and you, or my nation and yours? We don’t care what Ukrainians think about us, we don’t care what Americans, Russians or British think of us. In truth, we do not care what the Chechens think of us.’ Yeah. We have to do what we have to do, you know.”

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Boris Johnson says Putin claimed he could send missile to hit UK ‘in a minute’

Former prime minister’s comments about call to Russian president just before invasion come in new BBC documentary

Boris Johnson has said that Vladimir Putin claimed he could have sent a missile to hit Britain “within a minute”, in a call just before the invasion of Ukraine.

The former prime minister’s comments came in a three-part documentary for BBC Two looking at the conflict in Ukraine and the lead up to Russia’s invasion in February last year.

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Germany defiant that ‘lockstep’ with US on weapons is the best for Ukraine

Olaf Scholz was criticised for being slow to supply tanks but working with allies keeps chancellor’s public on side

Germany’s government is defiant, maintaining that its lockstep approach to weapons deliveries is the best way to support Ukraine, and the only way it can do so while keeping its domestic public on side. Allies of Chancellor Olaf Scholz accuse his critics of being “dedicated” to making him a scapegoat.

The German leader faced mounting criticism last week from international and domestic partners over the protracted decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks, which are made in Germany and required authorisation by Berlin for re-export from other countries.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 340 of the invasion

EU president says Ukraine has unconditional support ahead of summit; Russian strike kills three people in a residential district of eastern Ukraine

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said ahead of an EU-Ukraine summit next week that Ukraine had unconditional support from the bloc and needed to prevail against Russian attacks to defend European values. “We stand by Ukraine’s side without any ifs and buts. Ukraine is fighting for our shared values, it is fighting for the respect of international law and for the principles of democracy and that is why Ukraine has to win this war.”

A Russian strike killed three people in a residential district of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka on Saturday, the regional governor said. Fourteen other people were wounded in the attack, which also damaged four apartment buildings and a hotel. According to Ukraine’s defence ministry, Russia carried out attacks on Konstantynivka with multiple rocket launchers.

Russia accused the Ukrainian military of deliberately striking a hospital in a Russian-held area of eastern Ukraine on Saturday. It said a strike killed 14 people and wounded 24 patients and medical staff. The strike hit a hospital in the Russian-held settlement of Novoaidar and was carried out using a US-supplied Himars rocket launch system, the Russian defence ministry said. The claims could not be independently verified, AP reported.

Kyiv and its western allies are engaged in “fast-track” talks on the possibility of equipping Ukraine with long-range missiles and military aircraft, a top aide to Ukraine’s president says, AP reported. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Ukraine’s supporters in the west “understand how the war is developing” and the need to supply planes capable of providing cover for the armoured fighting vehicles that the United States and Germany have pledged.

Ukraine said on Friday it would take its pilots about half a year to train for combat in western fighter jets such as US F-16s, as Kyiv steps up its campaign to secure fourth-generation warplanes. Ukraine got a huge boost this week when Germany and the United States announced plans to provide heavy tanks to Kyiv, which is now hoping the west will also provide long-range missiles and fighter jets.

North Korea on Saturday denounced US pledges of battle tanks, claiming Washington was “further crossing the red line” to win hegemony by proxy war, Reuters quoted state media KCNA reporting. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, made the remarks in a statement, saying that North Korea will “stand in the same trench” as Russia against the United States.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, will hold a meeting with Lynne Tracy, the new US ambassador to Moscow, early next week, the RIA news agency reported.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Saturday redoubled his efforts to stop Russian athletes participating the 2024 Olympics, saying they would try to justify the war against Ukraine if allowed to compete. Zelenskiy said on Friday that Ukraine would launch an international campaign to keep Russia out of the summer games, which will be held in Paris. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Friday that any attempt to squeeze Moscow out of international sport because of what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine was “doomed to fail”.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine struggling to hold Bakhmut, military sources say — as it happened

Information follows the Ukrainian army’s withdrawal from the nearby city of Soledar last week

Battlefield tanks are only half the battle. Beyond military might on the ground in Ukraine, the other critical confrontation in which the Kremlin has a superiority that must be challenged. The information war.

Russia’s media space has reverted to a grotesque parody of the Soviet-era model. (In fact, it’s far worse, as in the latter Soviet years at least when most people knew they were being fed lies.) Television and the domestic press is utterly captured. Millions are fed a daily diet of Ukrainian “fascists”, western pederasts, and nuclear revenge on Anglo-Saxon civilisation.

A new barrage of Russian shelling killed at least 10 Ukrainian civilians and wounded 20 others in a day, the Ukrainian president’s office has said. Towns and villages in the east and in the south that were within reach of the Russian artillery suffered most, regional officials said. Six people died in the Donetsk region, two in Kherson and two in the Kharkiv region, Associated Press quoted the officials as saying on Friday.

A day earlier, Russian-fired missiles and self-propelled drones were reported to have hit deeper into Ukrainian territory, killing at least 11 people.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has described the situation on the frontline as “extremely acute”, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russia is stepping up its offensive. “The occupiers are not just storming our positions – they are deliberately and methodically destroying these towns and villages around them,” the Ukrainian president said, reporting major battles for Vuhledar and Bakhmut. Local Ukrainian officials reported heavy shelling in the north, north-east and east.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, will hold a meeting with Lynne Tracy, the new US ambassador to Moscow, early next week, the RIA news agency reported today.

Ukrainian troops were locked in “fierce” fighting with Russian forces for control of Vuhledar, a town south-west of Donetsk, on Friday. Both sides claimed success in the small administrative centre, a short distance from the strategic prize of the village of Pavlivka, Agence France-Presse reported. The Donetsk region’s Moscow-appointed leader, Denis Pushilin, was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Vuhledar may soon become a “very important success for us”, while Kyiv said the town remained contested.

Ukraine’s army claims to have killed 109 Russian soldiers and wounded another 188 in one day during fighting around Vuhledar. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson in the Ukrainian armed forces, said the death toll was recorded on Thursday, adding that “fierce fighting is ongoing”.

Poland will send an additional 60 tanks to Ukraine on top of the 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks it has already pledged, the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has told CTV News.

A total of 321 heavy tanks have been promised to Ukraine by several countries, Ukraine’s ambassador to France said on Friday. Vadym Omelchenko told French TV station BFM that “delivery terms vary for each case and we need this help as soon as possible”, while not specifying the number of tanks per country.

Belgium announced an additional €94m ($102m/£82.5m) package in military aid for Ukraine in what the Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo, said was – including previous spending – the largest of its kind Belgium had ever given another country.

Ukraine said it is setting up drone assault companies within its armed forces that will be equipped with Starlink satellite communications, as it presses ahead with an idea to build up an “army of drones”, Reuters reported. The army’s commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, signed off on the creation of the units in a project that would involve several ministries and agencies, the general staff said.

Ten regions of Ukraine are instituting emergency power outages due to a power shortage in the network after Thursday’s Russian attacks, Ukraine’s state broadcaster has reported. Repairs to damaged facilities are continuing.

The European Union wants swift accountability for “horrific” crimes in Ukraine, EU justice ministers have said while meeting in Stockholm. But the member states differ over how to bring prosecutions, seek evidence or fund war damage repairs.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 339 of the invasion

Fresh wave of Russian attacks in east and south Ukraine kill at least 10 civilians; troops locked in ‘fierce’ fighting for Donetsk town of Vugledar

A new barrage of Russian shelling has killed at least 10 Ukrainian civilians and wounded 20 others in a day, the office of Ukraine’s president has said. Regional officials said towns and villages in the east and in the south that are within reach of the Russian artillery suffered most. Six people died in the Donetsk region, two in Kherson and two in the Kharkiv region, the officials said.

A day earlier, Russian-fired missiles and self-propelled drones were reported to have hit deeper into Ukrainian territory, killing at least 11 people.

Ukrainian troops were locked in “fierce” fighting with Russian forces on Friday for control of the town of Vugledar, south-west of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Both sides claimed success in the small administrative centre, a short distance from the strategic prize of the village of Pavlivka, Agence France-Presse reported. “Soon, Vugledar may become a new, very important success for us,” Denis Pushilin, the Moscow-appointed leader of the Donetsk region, was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. But Kyiv said the town remained contested.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has described the situation on the frontline as “extremely acute”, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russia is stepping up its offensive. The Ukrainian president reported major battles for Vuhledar and Bakhmut, to the north-east. Local Ukrainian officials reported heavy shelling in the north, north-east and east.

Ukraine’s army claims to have killed 109 Russian soldiers and wounded another 188 in one day during fighting around Vuhledar. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian armed forces’ eastern operational command, said the death toll was recorded on Thursday, adding: “Fierce fighting is ongoing. The enemy is indeed trying to achieve an intermediate success there, but thanks to the efforts of our defenders, they are unsuccessful.”

Poland will send an additional 60 tanks to Ukraine on top of the 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks it has already pledged, the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has told CTV News.

A total of 321 heavy tanks have been promised to Ukraine by several countries, Ukraine’s ambassador to France said on Friday. Vadym Omelchenko told French TV station BFM that “delivery terms vary for each case and we need this help as soon as possible”, while not specifying the number of tanks per country.

Belgium announced an additional €93.6m ($104.7m/£84.5m) package in military aid for Ukraine in what the Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo, said was – including previous spending – the largest of its kind Belgium had ever given another country.

Ukraine says it is setting up drone assault companies within its armed forces that will be equipped with Starlink satellite communications, as it presses ahead with an idea to build up an “army of drones”, Reuters reported. Commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi signed off on the creation of the units in a project that would involve several ministries and agencies, the general staff said.

Ten regions of Ukraine are instituting emergency power outages due to a power shortage in the network after Thursday’s Russian attacks, Ukraine’s state broadcaster has reported. Repairs to damaged facilities are continuing.

The Kremlin claims Joe Biden has the key to end the conflict in Ukraine by directing Kyiv to settle but has not been willing to use it. “The key to the Kyiv regime is largely in the hands of Washington,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Friday. “Now we see that the current White House leader ... does not want to use this key. On the contrary, he chooses the path of further pumping weapons into Ukraine.” Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Washington of engaging in a “hybrid war” against Moscow.

The European Union wants swift accountability for “horrific” crimes in Ukraine, EU justice ministers have said while meeting in Stockholm. But the member states differ over how to bring prosecutions, seek evidence or fund war damage repairs. .

Hungary will veto any European Union sanctions against Russia affecting nuclear energy, the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, told state radio on Friday.

Russia is violating the “fundamental principles of child protection” in wartime by giving Ukrainian children Russian passports and putting them up for adoption, the head of the UN’s refugee agency, Filippo Grandi, has said.

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