Russia calls talks a ‘dead end’ and it becomes clear that troop build-up is not a bluff to achieve other ends
The Guardian’s world affairs editor assesses the outcome of three rounds of talks this week about the fate of Ukraine, involving Russia, the US, Nato and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
Did the talks achieve anything?
Continue reading...OSCE mission warns ‘crisis on the continent may arise’ as Polish foreign minister says Europe faces greatest risk of war in 30 years
Russia has said talks with Nato over Ukraine were hitting a dead end, while threatening to take unspecified “necessary measures” if its demands were not met.
A volley of downbeat statements from Russian senior officials emerged as Poland’s foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, warned that Europe faced its greatest risk of war in 30 years.
Continue reading...Moscow says relations with the alliance are at ‘critically low level’ with ‘no positive agenda at all’
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” after talks between alliance members and Russia ended with no signs of progress towards defusing the crisis over Ukraine. ”.
The Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, emerged from the four hours of talks renewing Moscow’s threat that it would take military steps if political measures were not enough to “neutralise the threats” it says it faces. His remarks came only days after his fellow Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, had assured reporters Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine.
Continue reading...EU leaders warn of consequences in response to further aggression against Ukraine
After months of sabre-rattling from Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, Russian officials have been on a diplomatic tour of Europe this week, meeting the US in Geneva and Nato in Brussels. Amid this diplomatic whirl, Europe’s biggest diplomatic club has been absent. The EU has no formal role in the talks, although its officials are drawing up possible sanctions to levy against Russia if the Kremlin decides to invade Ukraine.
The EU’s exclusion from talks on war and peace in its own backyard hurts. “Between Putin and Biden, Europe is sidelined,” ran a Le Monde headline last week. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell,struck an insouciant note. “I don’t care,” he said when the BBC asked whether the US should have gone ahead with the Geneva talks. The Russians, he said, had “deliberately excluded the EU from any participation” but he had been assured by the US that “nothing will be agreed without our strong co-operation, coordination and participation”.
Continue reading...Moscow’s chief negotiator played down chances of a breakthrough as Russian troops conduct live-fire exercise near Ukraine
The Kremlin has said it sees “no significant reason for optimism” about diplomatic solutions for the Ukraine crisis, ahead of a meeting in Brussels between Russia and Nato’s 30 member states.
As Moscow was playing down the chances for success at the negotiating table after initial US-Russian talks in Switzerland on Monday, Russian forces deployed near Ukraine conducted a live-fire military exercise involving 3,000 troops and tanks, in a clear rejection of US demands for a de-escalation in the region.
Continue reading...Diplomats stress they have not made progress towards resolving fundamental disagreements
US and Russian diplomats have emerged from a day of negotiations in Geneva over the fate of Ukraine, describing the talks as “useful” and “very professional” – but also stressing they had not made progress towards resolving fundamental disagreements.
The two sides largely spent the eight hours of talks presenting their points of view on the situation in Ukraine, currently hemmed in by some 100,000 Russian troops, and on European security in general, and deferred further debate on them to a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday between Russia and all Nato members.
Continue reading...Residents in Ukraine’s capital defiant, with many ready to fight – but they also have other concerns
At weekends Yevgeny Tereshchenko goes to the woods outside Kyiv and practises his shooting. “We need to be ready, morally and physically,” Tereshchenko explained, showing off a video in which he springs athletically into action and fires a rifle several times.
A Ukrainian army officer until two years ago, Tereshchenko is preparing for a possible Russian attack. If Moscow does launch a further military operation against Ukraine, assuming diplomatic talks fail this week, he and his friends are ready to fight, he said. “There are a lot of us. It’s our house, our country,” he pointed out.
Continue reading...Analysis: Military advantage is overwhelming but full invasion and occupation are different matter
A full invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of pacifying the capital, Kyiv, would result in Vladimir Putin starting a war on a scale not seen since Iraq in 2003 – prompting western experts to question whether a lasting Russian victory could be achieved.
Estimates suggest about 100,000 Russian troops are massing near Ukraine’s borders. Yet, experts following the crisis closely say that for an invasion of the whole country that number would need to nearly double again, and would almost certainly involve forces passing through Belarus.
Continue reading...Secretary of state Tony Blinken says coming week of talks is moment of truth for Russian president
The US has told Vladimir Putin to choose between dialogue and confrontation on the eve of a critical week of diplomacy over Ukraine as Russian troops remained massed along its borders.
Senior diplomats and military officers from the US and Russia held a working dinner in Geneva on Sunday evening before Monday’s formal negotiations to discuss Moscow’s demands. Those were set out last month in two draft treaties, one with the US and one with Nato. Much of their content is unacceptable to Washington and the alliance, most importantly a pledge that Ukraine will never be a Nato member.
Continue reading...Jens Stoltenberg says Nato will never withdraw its conditional offer of membership to Ukraine
The risk of conflict is real as Russia continues to mass its forces and artillery on the borders of Ukraine and make demands that it knows are unacceptable, Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general, has warned.
Earlier, Nato foreign ministers held a final symbolic display of transatlantic unity before a set of three separate critical talks next week with Russia on Moscow’s demands to restore past spheres of influence and have Nato strategic weapons withdrawn from near Russia’s borders.
Continue reading...Foreign secretary asserts western solidarity against Putin’s threats, but MPs challenge her on Russian influence in UK
Massive coordinated sanctions threatened against Russia if it launches military action against Ukraine will hit the high-level Russian elite and its ability to carry out financial transactions, Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, told MPs on Thursday, as she warned the west could not afford to be seen to reward Moscow in crucial talks next week.
Her remarks appear indirectly to confirm that if Russia mounts an incursion into Ukraine it could be excluded from Swift, the messaging network used by 11,000 banks in 200 countries to make cross-border payments.
Continue reading...Josep Borrell warns ‘severe costs’ would follow any aggression against Kyiv by Russian-backed separatists
The European Union’s top diplomat has pledged “full support” to Ukraine on a visit to the frontline of the country’s war with Moscow-backed separatists.
Josep Borrell is the first EU high representative for foreign policy to have visited the Donbass region since war broke out nearly eight years ago.
Continue reading...Russia is “very likely” to invade Ukraine and might only be deterred by “enormous sanctions”, the chair of the US House intelligence committee said on Sunday.
Adam Schiff also said an invasion could backfire on Moscow, by drawing more countries into the Nato military alliance.
Continue reading...Sergei Lavrov says Moscow may be forced to ‘eliminate unacceptable threats to our security’ following Biden-Putin call
Russia’s top diplomat has warned the west that its “aggressive” approach to Ukraine and threat of sanctions could force Moscow to “eliminate unacceptable threats to our security”, after a high-stakes conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden failed to deescalate the crisis.
The remarks by the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, were published shortly after the Russian and US presidents held a 50-minute telephone call in which the two sides traded threats regarding tensions over Ukraine.
Continue reading...Two leaders will discuss a range of topics, including ‘upcoming diplomatic engagements in Russia’
Joe Biden will speak on Thursday with Vladimir Putin regarding the Russian president increased security demands in eastern Europe.
The two leaders will discuss a range of topics, including “upcoming diplomatic engagements in Russia”, said US national security council spokesperson Emily Horne in a statement announcing the call.
Continue reading...In Kyiv and beyond, people carry on with the festive season despite rhetoric about imminent conflict
Russia is threatening war on Ukraine, but in Kyiv the city council is putting up Christmas trees rather than bomb shelter notices, and organising concerts rather than army recruitment drives.
Amid a Russian military buildup on Ukraine’s eastern border and in annexed Crimea, hostile rhetoric between Russia and the US and its allies is edging towards a cold war high, with Ukraine the battlefield for any actual fighting. Ukrainians, however, just emerging from Covid quarantine, are enjoying ice rinks and markets put up for the holiday season and would rather think about how to celebrate the coming new year.
Continue reading...Analysis: As Ukraine drifts from the control he desires, disdain for potential negotiating partners leaves the option of force
Vladimir Putin has deployed his troops to the border with Ukraine, delivered impossible demands on Europe and appears ready to launch a new offensive to establish his domination over Kyiv.
Putin is said to feel a “historical mission” to reverse Ukraine’s drift towards the west, despite his own role in creating a rift by annexing Crimea and fuelling a war in Ukraine’s south-east. But his current fast pace raises questions of why he appears to feel the moment to act is now, as if he is running out of time.
Continue reading...Vladimir Putin has accused the west of 'coming with its missiles to our doorstep' as he reiterated demands for no further Nato expansion in Europe. 'They keep telling us: war, war, war,' Putin said on Thursday.
The Russian president did little to reduce tensions over Ukraine as he spoke at a televised press conference, saying he would be prepared to launch an intervention if he felt Ukraine or its western allies were preparing an attack on Russia’s proxies in the country
Continue reading...Russian president again voices anger at Nato expansion and says he would be prepared to intervene in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin has accused the west of “coming with its missiles to our doorstep” as he reiterated demands for no further Nato expansion in Europe.
The Russian president did little to reduce tensions over Ukraine as he spoke at a televised press conference, saying he would be prepared to launch an intervention if he felt Ukraine or its western allies were preparing an attack on Russia’s proxies in the country.
Continue reading...European gas prices climb close to record highs as flows on key pipeline move towards Russia
The Kremlin has denied using Russia’s gas resources to turn the screw on Europe, after gas in a pipeline to Germany switched direction to flow eastwards for a second day, keeping prices near record highs as midwinter approaches.
Flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany declined over the weekend before stopping on Tuesday and reversing, data from the network operator Gascade showed.
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