The shadow of the departing chancellor looms over a contest too close to call

In September 1998, when a relatively youthful Gerhard Schröder defeated Helmut Kohl and ended his 16-year reign as German chancellor, the victorious leader of the Social Democrats (SPD) told supporters that the country had opted for “a change of generation”. Mr Schröder’s triumph turned a page on the cold war era, aligning Germany with a fresh-faced centre-left resurgence in western democracies led by Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. It was, in the political vernacular, a quintessential “change” election.

Almost a quarter of a century later, Angela Merkel will stand down of her own accord later this month – the first chancellor to do so – after equalling Mr Kohl’s longevity in office. But this time, ahead of a 26 September election, German voters seem to be somewhat reluctant to move on. None of Ms Merkel’s prospective replacements come close to matching her popularity. Fewer than one in five see the chancellor’s own preferred successor, the CDU/CSU candidate, Armin Laschet, as the best option to replace her. Caught on camera laughing during a visit to a town devastated by floods, Mr Laschet has fought a lacklustre campaign and has become a liability for his party. A poll last week found that from highs of around 35% at the start of the year, the CDU/CSU’s ratings have plunged on Mr Laschet’s watch to the low twenties and fallen just behind the SPD for the first time since 2006. The Greens electrified the contest by topping polls in the spring. Their extraordinary surge seemed to embody a widespread desire for a more environmentally driven politics to meet net zero pledges. But they too have lost their mojo as the party’s candidate for chancellor, the inexperienced Annalena Baerbock, struggles to recover from allegations of plagiarism and financial mismanagement.