President’s critics fear result will boost illiberal tendencies at home and within EU

Poland’s ruling populists have been given free rein in their mission to reshape the country after liberal hopes of taking the presidency were crushed in a narrow defeat following a divisive campaign.

The incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, was elected for another five-year term as a familiar set of demographic divisions played out in the vote. Poles under 50 and those living in larger towns and cities backed the liberal challenger, Rafał Trzaskowski, while older and rural voters stood by Duda.

Latest 2am poll gives incumbent Duda a two-percentage-point lead over Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski

Poland’s tightly fought and intensely polarising presidential election has gone down to the wire, as a late exit poll on Sunday night showed the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, leading his liberal challenger, Rafał Trzaskowski, by just two percentage points on 51.0% to 49.0%. The Ipsos poll’s margin of error is 1%.

The figures, released around 2am in Warsaw, were based on exit poll data combined with official results for 90% of the polling stations that took part in the exit poll. Duda had improved slightly on the results of the exit poll alone, which had given him 50.4%.

Andrzej Duda faces Rafał Trzaskowski in runoff that will shape country’s political future

Voting is under way in Poland’s presidential runoff, which pits the populist incumbent, Andrzej Duda, against the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. The outcome will have a huge bearing on the country’s future political trajectory, and polls suggest the result could go either way.

Duda is allied to the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), and a win for him will give PiS control of most of the levers of power for several more years, allowing it to continue an agenda that has eroded the rule of law and judicial independence, putting Poland on a collision course with the EU.