Iran-Israel’s shadow war is out in the open and will only escalate unless causes addressed

Face-to-face military confrontation on each other’s soil has now been normalised

For years, Israel and Iran have waged a “shadow war”, attacking each other indirectly using proxy forces, assassinations, informants, spies and hybrid, non-military covert means. Now this undeclared, largely silent war is undisguisedly out in the open. It’s become a shooting war, it’s noisy, it’s escalating, and there’s no end in sight.

This is not to say Israel’s large-scale, three-wave air assault on Tehran and other targets inside Iran early on Saturday morning means the two enemies are now engaged in all-out conflict. This is not yet the full-scale, region-wide conflagration so many in the Middle East fear. That may be coming, but it’s still in the future.

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World leaders call for restraint after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran

US and European states urge Tehran not to respond, while Middle Eastern countries condemn Israeli operation

World leaders have called for restraint after the first open Israeli airstrikes on Iran, after Tehran reiterated that it was “entitled and obligated to defend itself”.

The Israeli air force struck about 20 military bases across Iran, including missile and drone manufacturing sites and air defence systems, in the early hours of Saturday.

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Iran mocks Israel’s ‘weak’ attacks as hardliners call for reprisal

Political elite under pressure from variety of sources, with US urging Iran to step back from the brink

The Iranian government has belittled the scale and effectiveness of the Israeli attack on its military sites, but hardliners in the parliament insisted the strikes breached Iranian red lines and required a swift response, preferably at a time when Israel is already enmeshed in Lebanon and Gaza.

The internal Iranian debate on how to respond to the long-awaited Israeli attack turns on whether to treat Israel’s breach of Iranian national sovereignty as too grave to be ignored, or instead to heed the advice coming from the region and from the US to acknowledge the relatively limited nature of the attack and to step back from the brink by not launching reprisals.

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IDF strikes military sites in Iran: what we know so far

Israeli forces say military targets hit in Iran in response to ‘continuous’ attacks on Israel, as UK and US warn against escalation

Israel has struck military targets in Iran in a retaliatory attack that a senior US official described as “extensive but precise”. Iran said three sites were hit and that “limited damage” was caused. Here is everything we know so far:

Israel struck military sites in Iran early on Saturday, saying it was in response to “months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the state of Israel”. The strikes were widely expected after Tehran’s attacks on Israel this month. The Israeli public broadcaster Kan said dozens of fighter jets were involved.

The Israeli military said on Saturday morning it hit missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas and had completed its “targeted” air attacks, and that its planes had safely returned home. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed. The Israeli military said after its airstrikes: “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond.”

Two soldiers were killed in Saturday morning’s Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

The UK and US have warned against further escalation, while nations including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have all condemned the attacks.

Israel bears “full responsibility” for the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the Pakistan foreign ministry has said, adding that the Israeli strikes “undermine the path to regional peace and stability”.

Iran is “entitled and obligated to defend itself against external aggressive acts”, its foreign ministry has said. The ministry called the Israeli attack a violation of international law and said Tehran “recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security”.

The UK and US have warned against further escalation, while countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have all condemned the attacks.

At least seven explosions were reported in the skies over the capital, Tehran, and nearby Karaj as well as the eastern city of Mashhad just after 2.30am local time on Saturday, as Israeli jets struck military targets in the country.

Iran said its air defence system successfully countered Israel’s attacks on military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, with “limited damage” to some locations. A semi-official Iranian news agency vowed a “proportional reaction” to Israeli moves against Tehran.

A senior Biden official said the strikes were “extensive”, “precise” and against military targets across Iran in order to deter future aggression. The official stressed that the US considered the operation to be an “end to the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran” and that the US had no involvement in the Israeli military operation.

The US news outlet Axios reported on Saturday that US and Israeli officials assess that Iran will respond militarily but in a limited fashion.

Iran and Iraq briefly suspended all flights after the Israeli strikes. Iran’s civil aviation authority later resumed flights from 9am (05.30 GMT) on Saturday.

Iranian media initially appeared to downplay the airstrikes, noting that Tehran’s airport was operating normally. State TV reported several strong explosions heard around the capital, while the state news agency, IRNA, said there had been no casualties. There was no immediate official comment about the source of explosions, which Iranian news outlets reported were under investigation. Air defence systems were activated around the country.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took the rare step of acknowledging the attack on Iran, in a statement that confirmed a decades-old shadow war between the enemy states has now firmly moved into the open. The IDF posted on X: “In response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the state of Israel – right now the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran.”

The attacks were widely expected as a retaliation to a missile barrage launched by Iran on 1 October in which an estimated 180 ballistic missiles were fired towards Tel Aviv and military bases, in an unprecedented direct altercation between the two regional enemy states.

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Southern Beirut hit by airstrikes – as it happened

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We’ve launched video footage of the blasts and light flashes in Tehran early today and Iran’s air defences appearing to be at work. See here:

Meanwhile in Gaza, many believe Israel’s new offensive in the north – along with a tightening of its siege – is following a blueprint for removing the remaining population.

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IDF says it is striking military targets in Iran as sound of explosions reported around Tehran

The attacks, widely expected as a retaliation to a missile barrage launched by Iran on 1 October, could bring the Middle East closer to a regional war

Israel has launched direct airstrikes against Iran in a high-stakes retaliatory attack that brings the Middle East closer to a regional war that could draw in the US.

The Israeli military said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas inside Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed.

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Blasts reported near Imam Khomeini international airport in Iran – as it happened

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Lebanon’s health minister, Firass Abiad, has told reporters that over 163 rescuers and health workers had been killed and 272 injured in Israeli airstrikes during more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, the Iranian backed Lebanese militant group, began firing rockets into northern Israel in support of Palestinians on 7 October 2023, the day after its ally Hamas’s attack on southern Israel, in which about 1,200 people were killed.

We have been very clear that this cannot lead - should not lead - to a protracted campaign and that Israel must take the necessary steps to avoid civilian casualties and not endanger UN peacekeepers or the Lebanese armed forces.

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Strike on Iran will make world understand Israel’s might, says defence minister

Yoav Gallant says his country still intends to strike back in response to 1 October missile attack by Tehran

Planned airstrikes on Iran will make the world understand Israel’s military might, the Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, has said.

The Middle East has been braced for more than three weeks for a threatened Israeli response to Iran’s 1 October missile attack, which was in turn a reprisal for Israel’s killing of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

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Iranian general charged in plot to murder US-based dissident journalist

Justice department says eight were charged ‘for their efforts to silence and kill a US citizen because of her criticism of the Iranian regime’

A general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has been charged in New York in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a dissident Iranian American journalist.

The target of the alleged assassination plot was not named in unsealed court documents, but she has been widely identified as Masih Alinejad, who lives in New York.

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FBI investigates intelligence leak of potential Israel plans to attack Iran

John Kirby says Biden administration unsure if leak or hack led to secret documents appearing online on Telegram

The FBI has launched an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents describing Israel’s preparation for a potential retaliatory attack on Iran.

The White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, said on Monday that the Biden administration was still not certain if the classified information was leaked or hacked but that officials did not have any indication at this point of “additional documents like this finding their way into the public domain”.

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US ‘deeply concerned’ by intelligence leak over Israel plan to attack Iran

Officials say no further leaks but investigation under way into how documents came to be published on Telegram

US government officials investigating the leak of two classified intelligence papers assessing Israel’s plans to attack Iran have said they did believe any more documents had been compromised.

However, the Biden administration remained “deeply disturbed” by the unauthorized release, John Kirby, the national security communications adviser, told reporters at a White House briefing on Monday.

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Network of Israeli citizens arrested after spying for Iran, police say

Suspects are accused of photographing and collecting information about Israeli bases and facilities

Israeli police and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency say they have arrested a network of Israeli citizens spying for Iran who allegedly provided information on military bases and conducted surveillance of individuals.

The investigators claimed the network had been active for about two years. According to reports in the Israeli press, the suspects are accused of photographing and collecting information about Israeli bases and facilities, including the defence headquarters in Tel Aviv, known as the Kirya, and the Nevatim and Ramat David airbases.

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US investigates leaked documents alleging Israel plans to attack Iran

US officials say documents appear to be legitimate and House speaker says leak is very concerning

The US government is investigating an unauthorised release of classified documents that assess Israel’s plans to attack Iran.

The US House speaker, Mike Johnson, confirmed the investigation in remarks to CNN’s State of the Union programme on Sunday, saying the leak was very concerning.

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Middle East crisis: UN special coordinator reports ‘widespread panic’ in Lebanon after evacuation orders– as it happened

This blog is closing now. You can read our full report on the latest Israeli attacks on Lebanon here and our report on the latest Israeli attacks on Gaza here.

At least 42,603 Palestinian people have been killed and 99,795 injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since 7 October 2023, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

Of those, 84 Palestinians were killed in the latest 24-hour reporting period, according to the ministry, which has said in the past that thousands of other dead people are most likely lost in the rubble of the territory.

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Middle East crisis: Biden, Starmer and Macron say ‘immediate necessity’ to end Gaza war – as it happened

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At least 28 people have been killed in an Israeli airstrike on a school turned shelter in the Jabaliya neighbourhood of Gaza City, amid accusations Israel intends to forcibly expel the remaining population in a renewed ground campaign.

The bombing of Abu Hussein school in Jabaliya on Thursday killed 28, including doctors and several children, and injured dozens more, according to health officials, who warned the final toll was likely to be higher. Another 11 people were killed in two separate airstrikes in Gaza City, and it was unclear how many were killed in other strikes in central and southern Gaza.

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Mother of 16-year-old girl allegedly killed by Iran’s security forces arrested

Regime is punishing families of Woman, Life, Freedom protesters who died at hands of security forces, say activists

The mother of a 16-year-old Iranian girl who became one of the faces of the unprecedented nationwide protests against the regime has reportedly been arrested.

Nasrin Shakarami, the grieving mother of Nika Shakarami, who was allegedly killed by the security forces in September 2022, had been outspoken in her criticism of the regime over the death of her daughter.

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Middle East crisis live: Israel hails Yahya Sinwar’s death as ‘beginning of the end’ as US signals push for ceasefire and hostage return

Israeli PM says 'task before us is not yet complete’; US president, VP and senior leaders say killing must be opportunity to end Gaza war

The US military has mobilised its long-range B-2 stealth bombers to conduct strikes against “five hardened underground weapons storage locations” in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The Pentagon said the facilities house various weapons components the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels, roiling commercial shipping in the Red Sea. “This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified,” defence secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement.

The US Central Command said its battle damage assessments from the strikes were under way and did not indicate civilian casualties. The early morning strikes marked the first the US has used the B-2 bomber to attack Houthis in Yemen, and according to Bloomberg, the first time since January 2017 the wing-shaped bomber has flown in a combat mission.

The mayor of one of the largest cities in Lebanon’s south has been killed in an Israeli airstrike that hit the city’s municipal headquarters during a meeting to coordinate aid deliveries to residents and those displaced by war. The strike, one of a series on Nabatieh on Wednesday morning, killed 16 people and wounded 52, the Lebanese health ministry said. Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati accused Israel of “intentionally targeting” the meeting.

UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon said an Israeli army tank fired at a Unifil watchtower in Kafer Kela, a village in south Lebanon, in what it described as a “direct and apparently deliberate” act. The incident is the latest in a string of violations that Unifil has blamed on the IDF, prompting international condemnation. The IDF denied it was targeting Unifil forces.

Syrian news agency SANA reported an Israeli airstrike hitting the coastal city of Latakia. The state media outlet reported “fires were triggered by the Israeli aggression” at the entrance to Latakia, a stronghold of president Bashar al-Assad. It also reported two injuries and damage to private properties.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin has spoken with Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant, the Pentagon says, after Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken jointly penned a letter earlier this week calling on Israel to improve Gaza’s humanitarian situation.

The US has demanded proof on the ground that Israel does not have a policy of starvation in northern Gaza as it turned up the pressure on the Netanyahu government to allow more aid into the territory. The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told the security council on Wednesday at a meeting convened by France, UK and Algeria that such a policy “would not just be horrific and unacceptable” but also had “implications under international and US law”.

The risk of cholera spreading in Lebanon is “very high”, the World Health Organization has warned, after a case of the acute and potentially deadly infection was detected in the conflict-hit country. The WHO highlighted the risk of cholera spreading among hundreds of thousands of people displaced since Israel escalated its campaign against Hezbollah.

More than 500 Filipino migrant workers are expected to soon be repatriated from Lebanon, according to the Philippine government, amid warnings that workers who want to leave are facing resistance from their employers.

More than 500 Filipino migrant workers are expected to soon be repatriated from Lebanon, according to the Philippine government, amid warnings that workers who want to leave are facing resistance from their employers.

Migrante International, which represents Filipinos working abroad, warned last month that many workers wanted to leave Lebanon but were struggling with a slow repatriation process and problems with employers. Employers, who have paid large agency fees to hire workers, have been reluctant to support repatriation applications or hand over workers’ passports, the group warned. Filipino workers in Lebanon are mainly employed as domestic workers in Beirut.

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Iraq militias step up Israel attacks as Iran looks to junior proxies

Analysts suggest proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen fighting hidden conflict could be targets for Israel as it considers retaliation against Tehran

Iran-linked militias in Iraq have launched about 40 attacks involving missiles, drones or rockets on Israel in the past two and a half weeks, the latest escalation in a largely clandestine proxy battle fought across a swath of the Middle East.

The attacks began in October last year when the war in Gaza started, but data compiled by the Washington Institute, a US-based thinktank, shows a sharp increase in their pace after Israel killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike on 27 September.

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Israel says it will ‘address concerns’ from US after threat to withhold arms funding over Gaza – as it happened

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Israeli military strikes killed at least 40 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces tightened their squeeze around Jabalia in the north of the enclave on Tuesday, amid fierce battles with Hamas-led fighters.

Palestinian health officials said at least 11 people were killed by Israeli fire near Al-Falouja in Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, while 10 others were killed in Bani Suhaila in eastern Khan Younis in the south when an Israeli missile struck a house.

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Oil price slides amid China slowdown and easing Middle East fears

Brent crude slides by almost $3.50 a barrel to below $74 after Opec cuts forecasts for demand growth

Global oil prices have tumbled by almost $3.50 a barrel amid ongoing concerns about a slowdown in China and as fears ease about the possibility of an attack by Israel on Iran’s energy facilities.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has reportedly offered assurances to the White House that its retaliation against Iran for its missile attack at the start of October would not target oil export terminals or nuclear facilities, which could send market prices soaring.

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