Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon

Analysis: advance forces’ battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat

Russian forces massing near Ukraine’s borders can only remain in position for a few days before they have to be sent back to nearby bases or risk their capability being significantly degraded, western officials and experts believe.

That means that President Vladimir Putin will come under increasing pressure to use them in a full invasion of Ukraine – or send them back to staging areas, still in Russia’s south or west, but tens or even hundreds of kilometres back.

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Australian prime minister Scott Morrison says Russia acting like ‘thugs’ over Ukraine – video

Morrison said the Russian government is acting like ‘thugs’ and ‘bullies’ as the likelihood of war with Ukraine escalates. 'Australia will always stands up to bullies’, Morrison said while announcing a suite of sanctions against Russian interests

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Biden’s Russia sanctions: why holding back could be part of his strategy

The president has threatened tougher steps for further provocation, preserving the potency of sanctions as a deterrent

Numerologists will be fascinated that Joe Biden began his Ukraine speech on Tuesday at 2.22pm on 22.2.22. The US president, however, was more concerned with his own calculation of the economic and political costs of overreacting – or underreacting – to Russia’s provocations.

Biden thought he would be remembered as the pandemic president, but finds himself commanding the arsenal of democracy in what could become the biggest military assault in Europe since the second world war. The crisis escalated on Monday after Vladimir Putin recognised two breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, an apparent pretext for invasion.

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Biden announces sanctions over ‘Russian invasion’ – video

Joe Biden has announced new sanctions in retaliation for Russia recognizing two self-proclaimed republics, Donetsk and Luhansk, and sending troops there, adding to western efforts to stop what they fear is the beginning of a full-scale invasion. The measures target Russian banks and sovereign debt, among other steps. 'We have no intention of fighting Russia,' Biden said. 'We want to send an unmistakable message, though, that the United States, together with our allies, will defend every inch of Nato territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO' 

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‘We’re not afraid of Putin’: Ukrainians protest in front of Russian embassy in Kyiv – video

A day after Vladimir Putin recognised the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, protesters gathered in front of the Russian embassy in Kyiv in a show of defiance against the Russian president's actions in their country. The Guardian's Luke Harding spoke to them about why they were protesting and what they thought of the recent escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia

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‘We’re not afraid of Putin’: defiance on the streets of Kyiv

As protesters condemn Russian president, city’s defence chief says it is ready for ‘any situation’

The doors to the Russian embassy in Kyiv were shut on Tuesday. Seemingly nobody was at home. Outside on the street a small, noisy crowd of demonstrators waved blue and yellow Ukrainian flags. “We are not afraid of Vladimir Putin. Or his army,” said one activist, Roman Tyschenko.

Behind him protesters banged kettle drums and broke into a rhythmic chant of “Putin huiylo”, to blaring music from a loudspeaker. “It means Putin is a motherfucker,” Tyschenko explained. “It’s our anthem. Football fans in Kharkiv invented the song in 2014, when Russia stole Crimea.”

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Ukraine crisis poses dilemma for China but also opportunity

Analysis: While Xi and Putin have pledged closer cooperation, there are growing economic ties between Beijing and Kyiv

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine poses a diplomatic dilemma for China but also offers an opportunity for Beijing as Joe Biden’s administration is likely to continue to be distracted by Russia ahead of the US mid-term elections later this year.

China’s position in this round of Russia v the west is under particularly heavy scrutiny following Xi Jinping’s pledge with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on 4 February that there would be “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” in their bilateral relationship.

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Ukraine crisis live news: Blinken cancels Lavrov meeting as west’s sanctions target Russian economy

US and UK curbs on Russian banks and oligarchs are welcomed by Ukraine as strong ‘first move’; Zelenskiy rules out a general mobilisation

Ukraine’s defence minister says his country is “ready and able” to defend itself from Russia and says the world cannot be silent.

“Sanctions? Another brick in the wall? New Berlin Wall?” Oleksii Reznikov tweeted Tuesday morning local time.

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‘Speak plainly!’: Putin has tense exchange with his spy chief – video

The head of Russia's spy service has a tense exchange with Vladimir Putin during a security meeting about the Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine. Sergei Naryshkin, chief of the foreign intelligence service, is interrupted repeatedly  by the president and told to 'speak plainly!' Putin on Monday ordered his military to enter south-east Ukraine for the 'implementation of peacekeeping' in the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Ukraine and most of the world view as Ukraine's sovereign territory

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‘This is a bumpy long road’: the mood among Moscow residents

Many in Russia’s capital are worried about the political and economic consequences of the Ukraine crisis

Like many of her friends, Tatyana, a barista at the fashionable Moscow coffee-shop chain Skuratov, was glued to the screen of her mobile phone as Vladimir Putin addressed the nation.

“Usually, I don’t watch television, especially when our president speaks. But I felt like I had to tune in this time. I was witnessing history in the making,” she said, smoking an e-cigarette. “But I am not sure yet if history is going in the right direction.”

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Putin’s rambling Ukraine speech leaves western diplomats scrambling

Analysis: Russian president is toying with matches but has not yet lit the fuse, hence the west’s caution

Vladimir Putin’s angry and rambling hour-long potted history of Ukraine’s failings on Monday night, culminating in a commitment to recognise the self-proclaimed republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, left western diplomats scratching their heads and wondering whether they had been made redundant.

The Russian president not only said he would recognise Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine, rendering eight years of negotiations over their future pointless, but he also signalled that Russia could not tolerate an independent Ukraine on its borders. Nato was hardly mentioned. His target at one point seemed to be the Bolsheviks, for relinquishing land to the nationalists.

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Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine on ‘peacekeeping duties’

Russian deployment follows decision to recognise territories in south-east will be viewed in Ukraine and by other western allies as an occupation

Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to enter the Russian-controlled areas of southeast Ukraine following a decision to recognise the territories as independent states.

The decision to dispatch his troops to perform “peacekeeping duties” will be viewed in Ukraine and by other western allies as an occupation of the region and likely trigger tough sanctions and a Ukrainian military response.

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Putin signs decree recognising Ukraine’s two breakaway regions – video

Vladimir Putin has said Russia will recognise the independence of two territories of eastern Ukraine, the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Following a televised address aired on the country’s state-run news channel, Putin joined the leaders of the LPR and DPR to sign a decree recognising the independence of the two territories

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Putin’s absurd, angry spectacle will be a turning point in his long reign

This was a supreme leader marshalling his minions for a decision that will change the security architecture in Europe and may well lead to horrific war

Sitting alone at a desk in a grand, columned Kremlin room, Vladimir Putin looked across an expanse of parquet floor at his security council and asked if anyone wished to express an alternative opinion.

He was met with silence.

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Memory of 1938 hangs heavy in Munich as Ukrainian president calls for action

‘Has the world forgotten its mistakes of the 20th century?’ asks Volodymyr Zelenskiy as invasion looms

Just 20 minutes walk from the ornate Hotel Bayerischer Hof, where world leaders gathered this weekend for the Munich security conference, lies No 12 Arcisstrasse, the shuttered brown ornamental building known as the Führerbau.

On a cold grey Sunday morning, the building, now temporarily closed and in disrepair, has a forbidding air. Near the steps at the front is a small plaque with the bare inscription in German, Czech and Slovak: “In this building, on 29 September, 1938, the Munich agreement was signed, which led to the smashing of the Czechoslovak republic.”

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UK ‘weakening threat to Kremlin by failing to close property loophole’

EU capitals concerned UK is not ensuring identity of real estate owners known in event of sanctions

Britain has frustrated its EU allies and weakened the west’s financial threat to the Kremlin by failing to close a loophole that will ensure London real estate remains a safe haven for Russian money, according to diplomatic sources in Brussels.

New legislation, described as the “toughest ever” by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, gives the UK government powers to freeze the assets of individuals linked to the Russian state in the event of an invasion of Ukraine but fails to “capture” property owned via anonymous offshore structures.

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Analysis: what happens if Russia invades?

Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, but Ukraine’s armed forces will not be easily vanquished

Exploiting its overwhelming superiority in land, sea and air forces, Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, from the north-east, the Donbas and Crimea. Ground troops in Belarus, backed by airstrikes, would spearhead a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine’s encircled army would be forced, in theory, to surrender.

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EU praises ‘restraint’ of Kyiv government; Blinken denounces Kremlin claims – as it happened

European Council urges Moscow to ‘de-escalate’ its military buildup; Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy says global security architecture is failing

The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron will speak by phone on Sunday, the TASS news agency reported.

A second separatist leader, Leonid Pasechnik of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), has signed a decree calling for a full military mobilisation, according to Reuters.

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Biden warns Russia will invade Ukraine ‘in the next few days’ – video

Joe Biden has said he is ‘convinced’ that Vladimir Putin has ‘made the decision’ to invade Ukraine – an invasion that might come in the next days, based on US intelligence. The US president added it was not too late to reverse that decision: ‘Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return the negotiation table.’ 

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is due to address a security conference in Munich on Saturday, despite US warnings that Russia might exploit his absence to topple him before he returns to Kyiv

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Ukraine crisis brings British intelligence out of the shadows

Analysis: warnings of Russian invasion issued in bid to shape the narrative and win information war with Kremlin

British intelligence, so used to operating in the shadows, has been thrust into the spotlight during the Ukraine crisis, cited by Boris Johnson on Wednesday to warn that Russian troop numbers were still increasing or by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, last month to warn of a possible coup in Kyiv.

As the crisis has intensified, the warnings have, if anything, become even less subtle. An extraordinary video released on Thursday by the Ministry of Defence, billed in capital letters as an “intelligence update”, included a Dad’s Army-style map showing a possible Russian invasion plan and other assessments aimed at the general public.

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