Tuesday briefing: After Russia retaliates, what might happen next?

In today’s newsletter: Russia responded to an attack on a military supply line with a devastating blitz on civilian targets. Peter Beaumont speaks from Kyiv about defiance, destruction and what to expect

Good morning. On Saturday, Vladimir Putin called a blast at a vital bridge linking Russia and Crimea an “act of terror” carried out by “Ukrainian secret services”; yesterday, the Kremlin took horrifying revenge. The missile and kamikaze drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and key civilian infrastructure were roundly condemned as war crimes; they hit a playground and a tourist bridge, power plants and waterworks. Today, Volodymyr Zelenskiy will tell a virtual G7 summit: “We are dealing with terrorists. They have two targets: energy infrastructure and people.”

If Putin is seeking retribution, he does not appear to be satisfied yet. There were reports of 15 more Russian rockets fired on the city of Zaporizhzhia overnight; Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Emine Dzheppar, said they targeted residential buildings and “an educational institution”. There were also reports that a power plant in the southwestern city of Vinnytsia has been shelled. And this morning, air raid sirens are going off in Kyiv again.

Economy | Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by tax cuts, new analysis by the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggests. Meanwhile, Liz Truss overruled Kwarteng’s top appointment at the Treasury and handed the role to a veteran Treasury official.

UK news | A nurse poisoned two newborn babies and was the “constant malevolent” presence on a hospital neonatal unit when other infants died or unexpectedly collapsed, a court has been told. Lucy Letby, 32, is accused of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder another 10 between June 2015 and June 2016.

Scotland | Nicola Sturgeon has told the Scottish National party’s annual conference that “we are the independence generation”. Her speech came as the UK supreme court prepared to hear arguments on Tuesday on whether Holyrood can set up an independence referendum without Westminster’s approval.

Iran | The UK has announced sanctions against Iran’s morality police as well as its national chief and the head of its Tehran division, in response to the violent suppression of recent protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in their custody.

Labour | The former shadow minister Sam Tarry has been deselected as an MP after a bitter row in the Ilford South constituency. Tarry, who helped organise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership campaign, was defeated by local council leader Jas Athwal, a close ally of neighbouring MP and shadow cabinet minister Wes Streeting.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: US and UN condemn brutality and escalation after deadly wave of missile strikes across Ukraine

Biden deplores Putin’s ‘utter brutality’ while Guterres ‘deeply shocked’ by Russia’s most widespread air strikes since start of invasion

Meanwhile, a series of images shared by Zaporizhzhia’s administrative head Anatoly Kurtev shows the aftermath of the overnight missile attack.

A series of blasts have rocked Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, according to local media reports and regional officials.

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GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power

British spy agency director to say in rare public address that Ukraine is ‘turning the tide’ against Russia

Vladimir Putin has made strategic errors in his pursuit of the war in Ukraine partly because there are so few restraints on his leadership, the head of the British spy agency GCHQ will say in a speech on Tuesday.

Russia’s soldiers are running out of supplies and munitions and initial gains made by Moscow are being reversed, Jeremy Fleming is expected to add in a rare public address.

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Ukraine to demand step-change in western aid after Russian missile blitz

Kyiv presses military and diplomatic wishlist as French president sees ‘profound change in nature of this war’

Volodymyr Zelenskiy will address G7 leaders on Tuesday to demand a significant increase in their military and diplomatic support after the biggest Russian missile attack on Ukrainian cities since the start of the war.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, described the attack, in which cruise missiles and armed drones rained down on parks, playgrounds, power stations and other civilian targets, as “a profound change in the nature of this war”.

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‘This only unites us’: defiance as deadly strikes bring war back to Kyiv

Series of missiles shatter several months of calm but normal life quickly returns amid the destruction

Shevchenko Park in central Kyiv is a tranquil public garden, where the trees are turning golden against the city’s blue, autumnal skies. Presiding over the park is a statue of Taras Shevchenko, Ukraine’s national poet, persecuted by the Russians in the 19th century for writing in Ukrainian.

But on Monday that sense of calm was violently shattered when a series of missiles hit the city centre. War had returned to what had been, for several months, a mostly peaceful – if anxious – city.

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Russian pop star who criticised Ukraine war says she is in Israel

Alla Pugacheva, whose husband has been declared a ‘foreign agent’, denounced invasion three weeks ago

The Russian pop singer Alla Pugacheva has said she is in Israel, three weeks after she publicly criticised Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine when Moscow declared her husband a “foreign agent”.

“I thank my multimillion army of fans for their love and support, for the ability to distinguish truth from lies,” the 73-year-old, known as the “queen of Soviet pop music”, said in an Instagram post on Monday.

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Cutting oil output risks global economy, warns US Treasury secretary

Janet Yellen’s comments come as figures show business activity declining across most UK regions

The world’s biggest oil-producing nations cutting production at a time of soaring energy costs is “unhelpful and unwise” for global economic growth, the US Treasury secretary has warned, amid intense pressure from sky-high inflation.

Ahead of meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, Janet Yellen said the move by Opec+ – the oil production cartel led by Saudi Arabia, plus Russia – risked undermining the world economy.

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Vladimir Putin calls blast on Crimea-Russia bridge an ‘act of terror’

Russian president claims Ukrainian special forces behind explosion on Kerch bridge

Vladimir Putin has blamed Ukraine directly for the blast at a vital bridge linking Russia and Crimea, describing the weekend attack as “act of terror” carried out by “Ukrainian secret services” amid growing expectation that the Kremlin plans an imminent and harsh escalation of its war.

“There is no doubt. This is an act of terrorism aimed at destroying critically important civilian infrastructure,” the Russian president said in a video released on Sunday night on the Kremlin’s Telegram channel about the explosion on the Kerch bridge, which occurred on Saturday.

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Pentagon spokesperson tamps down concerns over nuclear ‘Armageddon’

John Kirby says Biden’s warning about threat of a nuclear attack from Russia were not based on specific new information

The US military’s top spokesperson tamped down concerns of an imminent nuclear threat from Russia, days after Joe Biden warned of a potential nuclear “Armageddon”.

Speaking at a Democratic fundraiser this week, Biden talked bluntly about the threat of a nuclear attack from Russia. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” the president said. He added that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming” after invading Ukraine earlier this year.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin calls Crimea bridge attack an ‘act of terrorism’ — as it happened

Russian president blames Ukrainian special services for ‘destroying critically important civilian infrastructure’

Ukraine’s ministry of defence has posted pictures of the missile strike on the south-eastern city of Zaporizhzhia.

The tweet adds that if Ukrainian military forces “had modern anti-missile systems, we could have prevented such tragedies”.

Zaporozhye again. Again merciless strikes on civilians. In residential buildings, just in the middle of the night. There are already 12 dead. 49 injured in hospital, 6 of them children.

The absolute meanness of all. Absolute evil.

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Russian divers to inspect Crimea bridge as governor warns of ‘desire to seek revenge’

Experts to assess extent of damage as limited traffic appears to resume on key bridge and Vladimir Putin orders extra security for infrastructure

Russian divers are to examine the extent of the damage caused by a powerful blast on Russia’s road-and-rail bridge to Crimea, a hated symbol of Russian occupation and key logistics link for Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

Russian news agencies quoted the deputy prime minister, Marat Khusnullin, as saying the divers would start work on Sunday at 6am (0300 GMT), with a more detailed survey above the waterline expected to be complete by the end of the day.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 228 of the invasion

Vladimir Putin orders extra security around Kerch bridge in Crimea as limited traffic starts to resume

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will hold a meeting of his security council on Monday, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said. It comes after an explosion on Saturday caused the collapse of part of a bridge linking the Crimean peninsula with Russia.

Ukrainian authorities have revised the death toll from the Russian shelling of Zaporizhzhia down from 17 to at least 12. The blasts blew out windows in adjacent buildings and left at least one high-rise apartment building partially collapsed. In the immediate aftermath of the strikes, the city council said 17 were killed but later revised that down to 12. The city council secretary, Anatoliy Kurtev, said rockets struck the city overnight, and that at least 20 private homes and 50 apartment buildings were damaged. At least 40 people were admitted to hospital and dozens more were being treated for moderate to light injuries, Kurtev posted on his Telegram channel.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed that those who ordered and issued the “merciless” strikes in Zaporizhzhia will be held responsible. In a post on his Facebook page, he said the attack was “evil” and that everyone involved in the incident “will be held accountable”.

The blasts that killed at least 12 people in Zaporizhzhia came from six missiles launched in Russian-occupied areas of the wider region, the Ukrainian air force has said. The Zaporizhzhia region is one of four Russia claimed as its own this month, but the regional capital remains under Ukrainian control.

Reuters reports that the White House said it would continue to arm Ukraine but declined direct comment on an explosion that damaged Russia’s road-and-rail bridge to Crimea. National security spokesman John Kirby told ABC’s This Week programme: “We don’t really have anything more to add to the reports about the explosion on the bridge. What I can tell you is that Mr Putin started this war, and Mr Putin could end it today, simply by moving his troops out of the country.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is being accompanied by the destruction and pillaging of historical sites and treasures on an industrial scale, Ukrainian authorities said. In an interview with the Associated Press, Ukraine’s culture minister, Oleksandr Tkachenko, alleged that Russian soldiers helped themselves to artefacts in almost 40 Ukrainian museums. The looting and destruction of cultural sites has caused losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of euros, the minister added.

Ukraine has recaptured more than 1,170 sq km (450 sq miles) of land in its southern Kherson region since launching the start of its counterassault against Russia in late August, a military spokesperson said. Ukraine achieved success with its offensive in the north-east, but its drive in the south to wipe out a Russian foothold on the west bank of the vast Dnieper River has taken longer, Reuters reports. Southern military command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said that Ukraine was making progress on the Kherson front, but that a lot needed to be done to secure newly recaptured territories.

The damage from Saturday’s explosion on the Kerch bridge in Crimea could have a “significant” impact on Russia’s “already strained ability to sustain its forces” in southern Ukraine, the latest UK intelligence update says. The Ministry of Defence said the blast “will likely touch President Putin closely” for reasons including that it came hours after his 70th birthday, he personally sponsored and opened the bridge, and its construction contractor was a childhood friend. The ministry said the bridge’s rail crossing had played a key role in moving heavy military vehicles to the southern front during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: three killed as huge explosion causes key Crimea-Russia road bridge to collapse

Blast early on Saturday causes road bridge to collapse and engulfs rail bridge in flames

The parliamentary leader of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party has stopped short of claiming that Kyiv was responsible for the Kerch bridge explosion but appeared to cast it as a consequence of Moscow’s takeover of Crimea and attempts to integrate the peninsula with the Russian mainland.

“Russian illegal construction is starting to fall apart and catch fire. The reason is simple: if you build something explosive, then sooner or later it will explode,” David Arakhamia, the leader of the Servant of the People party, wrote on Telegram.

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Putin dealt bitter blow as blast cripples key bridge to Crimea

Ukrainians relish show of Russian vulnerability after explosion on supposedly untouchable 18-mile prestige structure

An explosion has crippled the heavily guarded bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland, a hated symbol of Russian occupation and key logistics link for Russian troops in southern Ukraine, in the latest heavy blow to Vladimir Putin after weeks of military humiliation.

The Kerch bridge was a personal prestige project for the Russian president, and the hit came the day after his 70th birthday. The blast destroyed the road into Crimea and left the railway link in flames.

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Russia appoints notorious general to lead Ukraine offensive

Sergei Surovikin appointed on same day as explosion on Kerch bridge that has dealt blow to Vladimir Putin

Russia has appointed a notorious general who opened fire on pro-democracy protesters in the 1990s as its first overall commander for the war in Ukraine, as the Kremlin struggles to halt a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has left its forces in disarray.

The appointment of Gen Sergei Surovikin came on the same day as Vladimir Putin was dealt a humiliating blow after an explosion on the Kerch bridge sank a section of the motorway into the Kerch Strait and caused a major fire on the railway.

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Behind Moscow’s bluster, sanctions are making Russia suffer

High oil and gas revenues notwithstanding, Putin’s ability to fight is being eaten away as the months go by

Fears that Russia is navigating its way around sanctions are unfounded, according to experts who say Moscow is suffering a bigger hit than institutions such as the World Bank have been predicting.

Some analysts have interpreted the strength of the rouble, the size of the warchest of cash available to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s ability to redirect exports destined for Europe to willing southern neighbours as a signal that the arsenal of sanctions deployed against Moscow is failing to bite.

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Key bridge linking Crimea to Russia hit by huge explosion

Section of Kerch bridge collapses after blast, seen as major blow to Russian military prestige

A huge explosion has destroyed part of the Kerch bridge from Russia to Crimea, a hated symbol of the Kremlin’s occupation of the southern Ukrainian peninsula, one of Vladimir Putin’s prestige projects and a vital logistical link for the Russian military.

A section of the Ukraine-bound road bridge collapsed into the Kerch strait after the blast, and a fierce fire engulfed a train on the parallel railway connection, creating a vast column of black smoke. The parallel road towards Russia still appeared passable in images from the blast site.

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Russia declares popular rapper and writer ‘foreign agents’

Oxxxymiron added to an updated list alongside four journalists and Dmitry Glukhovsky, a prominent writer

The Russian justice ministry has declared one of the country’s most popular rappers to be a “foreign agent”, a legal designation that has been used to hound Kremlin critics and journalists.

Oxxxymiron, whose real name is Miron Fyodorov, was added to an updated list of foreign agents alongside four journalists and Dmitry Glukhovsky, a prominent writer.

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Biden’s ‘Armageddon’ warning wasn’t based on new intelligence, US says

US president made most outspoken remark on threat of wartime nuclear weapons when speaking at a fundraiser on Thursday

The White House has said that Joe Biden’s warning of “Armageddon” if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was not based on any new intelligence suggesting such nuclear use is imminent.

The US president issued his warning at a private fundraising event in New York on Thursday evening, in his most outspoken remarks yet on the threat of wartime nuclear weapons being used for the first time since 1945.

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