US will soon need to deter two major nuclear powers for first time, White House says

New national security strategy warns of Russia as more immediate threat and China as long-term competitor

Within a decade, the US will need to deter two major nuclear weapons powers for the first time, the Biden administration has warned, pointing to the Russian arsenal that is increasingly being brandished by Moscow and an expanding Chinese stockpile.

The president’s new national security strategy (NSS) depicts China as the most capable long-term competitor, but Russia as the more immediate, disruptive threat, pointing to its nuclear posturing over Ukraine. It warns that threat could grow as Russian forces continue to suffer defeats on the battlefield.

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Saudi Arabia is choosing friends on its own terms and Biden is not one of them

Reactions in Washington to slashing oil supply have not concerned Mohammed bin Salman; nor have the optics of indirectly boosting Putin’s war

Mohammed bin Salman had seen it coming. The groundswell of anger in Washington was clear and building since he helped lead an Opec+ decision to cut the world’s oil supply last week.

But for the first time in the modern era of ties between the US and Saudi Arabia, there was no rush to placate hard feelings, or gloss over a rift. This was the birth of a new realpolitik, where nascent Saudi nationalism paid no heed to a historical ally and instead aligned itself to what Riyadh literally sees as a new world order.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin says ‘ball in EU’s court’ over gas supply; power to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant restored

Putin says he is ready to supply the EU with gas via Nord Stream 2; head of IAEA says morning power station outage caused by Russian shelling

Serhai Haidai, Ukraine’s governor of Luhansk, has posted an update on Telegram on Ukraine’s military progress in the occupied Luhansk region. He writes:

The armed forces of Ukraine are moving forward little by little. The Russians are shelling our positions mainly with rocket and barrel artillery. The occupiers are building a multi-layer defence line in Luhansk region, the entire first section of the front line is mined by them. Our military has already encountered the first wave of partially mobilised Russians.

The Federal Security Service, together with the Investigative Committee, established that the organiser of the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge was the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, its head Kyrylo Budanov, employees and agents.

Currently, five citizens of Russia, three citizens of Ukraine and Armenia, who participated in the preparation of the crime, have been detained within the framework of the criminal case.

This is Martin Belam taking over the live blog in London. You can contact me at martin.belam@theguardian.com

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Oil pipeline to Germany partly shut after leak found in Poland

Cause of leak in Druzhba line, which supplies oil from Russia, not yet known, says operator

The Druzhba oil pipeline linking Russia and Germany has been partly shut after a leak was discovered in Poland, the Polish operator Pern said on Wednesday.

“The cause of the incident is not known for the moment. Pumping in the affected line was immediately stopped. Line 2 of the pipeline is functioning normally,” the operator said.

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Ukraine crowdfunding raises almost $10m in 24 hours to buy kamikaze drones

Money raised after wave of Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities on Monday will be used to support army

A crowdfunding appeal that was launched after Russian attacks on cities across the country on Monday has raised $9.6m (£8.7m) in 24 hours for the purchase of kamikaze drones for the Ukrainian armed forces.

An initial 50 Ram II drones, unmanned aerial vehicles with a 3kg explosive payload, designed and built by Ukrainian companies, will be bought with the money, along with three control stations.

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Putin ‘totally miscalculated’ Russia’s ability to occupy Ukraine, Biden says

US president tells CNN he believes Putin’s objectives in Ukraine invasion were irrational but that he would not use a nuclear weapon

Joe Biden has said he believes Vladimir Putin is a “rational actor” who badly misjudged his prospects of occupying Ukraine, but does not believe he would resort to using a tactical nuclear weapon.

The US president told CNN on Tuesday that he believed his Russian counterpart had underestimated the ferocity of Ukrainian defiance in the face of invasion.

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Sources in Russian analyst’s Trump dossier fabricated, prosecutors argue

Igor Danchenko, who played a vital role in creating the Steele dossier, has been indicted on five counts of lying to the FBI

A Russian analyst who played a major role in the creation of a flawed dossier about former President Donald Trump fabricated one of his own sources and concealed the identity of another when interviewed by the FBI, prosecutors said Tuesday.

The allegations were aired during opening statements in the trial of Igor Danchenko, who is indicted on five counts of making false statements to the FBI.

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Elon Musk denies report he spoke to Putin about use of nuclear weapons

Tesla boss, who recently floated his own peace plan, rejects claim he talked to Russian president about the war in Ukraine

Elon Musk has denied a report that he spoke to Vladimir Putin, including about the potential for using nuclear weapons, before floating a peace plan that suggested that Ukraine cede territory to Russia.

The head of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy, who made the original claim, had insisted that his source was Musk himself. “Elon Musk told me he had spoken with Putin and the Kremlin directly about Ukraine,” Ian Bremmer said in a tweet after Musk’s tweeted denial. “He also told me what the kremlin’s red lines were.

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Saudi Arabia will face ‘consequences’, says Biden, amid anger at cuts in oil output

Moves by Opec+ to reduce production seen as siding with Putin over the US just as midterms loom

Joe Biden said there “will be consequences” for Saudi Arabia after its decision last week to side with Vladimir Putin and cut oil production.

“There’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done, with Russia,” the US president said in an interview on CNN. “I’m not going to get into what I’d consider and what I have in mind. But there will be – there will be consequences.”

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G7 leaders warn Putin over use of nuclear weapons; Zelenskiy calls for international mission along Belarus border – as it happened

Leaders warn of ‘severe consequences’; Ukrainian president accuses Russia of trying ‘to directly draw Belarus into this war’

Despite – or because of – yesterday’s missile strikes on several Ukranian cities, people in Lviv, which was among the cities targeted by Russia, went dancing last night.

Wall Street Journal correspondent Matthew Luxmoore posted the below video on Twitter late on Monday night, adding that “Ukranian songs were interspersed tonight with chants of ‘Death to Enemies!’ and ‘Putin is a dick’!’”

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 230 of the invasion

Death toll from Monday’s strikes rises to 19 as Russian continues to attack Ukrainian cities with missiles; GCHQ boss says ‘No signs Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapon’

The death toll from Monday’s Russian missile attacks on a swathe of Ukrainian cities has risen to 19 people, with over 100 wounded, according to figures from the Ukrainian state emergency services.

Strikes continued on Tuesday. An attack on the Lviv region in western Ukraine on Tuesday left parts of the city without electricity. Governor Maksym Kozytskyi has said “At this moment, it is known about three explosions at two energy facilities in the Lviv region”. Mayor of the city, Andriy Sadovyi, appealed to residents to keep water supplies on hand ahead of expected service interruptions.

The Ladyzhyn thermal power plant (LTPP) in the Vinnytsia region was struck on Tuesday morning. Regional head Serhiy Borzov said: “An attack was launched on the LTPP. Two Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.”

There has been a lengthy air raid warning in place all morning in Kyiv, with governor Oleksiy Kuleba claiming that at least one rocket had been shot down.

Valentyn Reznichenko, the governor of Dnipro, has claimed that air defence systems had shot down four missiles over the region. Vitaliy Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv, has said that “there are still missiles in the air” and that Ukraine’s air defences continue to work.

The head of GCHQ has said the UK spy agency has not seen any indicators that Russia is preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in or around Ukraine despite recent bellicose statements from Vladimir Putin. Jeremy Fleming, speaking on Tuesday morning, said it was one of GCHQ’s tasks to monitor whether the Kremlin was taking any of the preliminary steps needed before a tactical weapon was being made ready.

Fleming is expected to say in a rare public speech delivered later on Tuesday that Putin is making strategic errors due to unconstrained power. “Far from the inevitable Russian military victory that their propaganda machine spouted, it’s clear that Ukraine’s courageous action on the battlefield and in cyberspace is turning the tide,” Fleming will say. “With little effective internal challenge, Putin’s decision-making has proved flawed”

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No signs Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapon, says GCHQ boss

UK spy chief says Kremlin does not appear to be engaged in preliminary steps despite Putin’s threats

The head of GCHQ has said the UK spy agency has not seen any indicators that Russia is preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in or around Ukraine despite recent bellicose statements from Vladimir Putin.

Jeremy Fleming, speaking on Tuesday morning, said it was one of GCHQ’s tasks to monitor whether the Kremlin was taking any of the preliminary steps needed before a tactical weapon was being made ready.

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Tuesday briefing: After Russia retaliates, what might happen next?

In today’s newsletter: Russia responded to an attack on a military supply line with a devastating blitz on civilian targets. Peter Beaumont speaks from Kyiv about defiance, destruction and what to expect

Good morning. On Saturday, Vladimir Putin called a blast at a vital bridge linking Russia and Crimea an “act of terror” carried out by “Ukrainian secret services”; yesterday, the Kremlin took horrifying revenge. The missile and kamikaze drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and key civilian infrastructure were roundly condemned as war crimes; they hit a playground and a tourist bridge, power plants and waterworks. Today, Volodymyr Zelenskiy will tell a virtual G7 summit: “We are dealing with terrorists. They have two targets: energy infrastructure and people.”

If Putin is seeking retribution, he does not appear to be satisfied yet. There were reports of 15 more Russian rockets fired on the city of Zaporizhzhia overnight; Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Emine Dzheppar, said they targeted residential buildings and “an educational institution”. There were also reports that a power plant in the southwestern city of Vinnytsia has been shelled. And this morning, air raid sirens are going off in Kyiv again.

Economy | Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by tax cuts, new analysis by the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggests. Meanwhile, Liz Truss overruled Kwarteng’s top appointment at the Treasury and handed the role to a veteran Treasury official.

UK news | A nurse poisoned two newborn babies and was the “constant malevolent” presence on a hospital neonatal unit when other infants died or unexpectedly collapsed, a court has been told. Lucy Letby, 32, is accused of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder another 10 between June 2015 and June 2016.

Scotland | Nicola Sturgeon has told the Scottish National party’s annual conference that “we are the independence generation”. Her speech came as the UK supreme court prepared to hear arguments on Tuesday on whether Holyrood can set up an independence referendum without Westminster’s approval.

Iran | The UK has announced sanctions against Iran’s morality police as well as its national chief and the head of its Tehran division, in response to the violent suppression of recent protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in their custody.

Labour | The former shadow minister Sam Tarry has been deselected as an MP after a bitter row in the Ilford South constituency. Tarry, who helped organise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership campaign, was defeated by local council leader Jas Athwal, a close ally of neighbouring MP and shadow cabinet minister Wes Streeting.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: US and UN condemn brutality and escalation after deadly wave of missile strikes across Ukraine

Biden deplores Putin’s ‘utter brutality’ while Guterres ‘deeply shocked’ by Russia’s most widespread air strikes since start of invasion

Meanwhile, a series of images shared by Zaporizhzhia’s administrative head Anatoly Kurtev shows the aftermath of the overnight missile attack.

A series of blasts have rocked Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, according to local media reports and regional officials.

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GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power

British spy agency director to say in rare public address that Ukraine is ‘turning the tide’ against Russia

Vladimir Putin has made strategic errors in his pursuit of the war in Ukraine partly because there are so few restraints on his leadership, the head of the British spy agency GCHQ will say in a speech on Tuesday.

Russia’s soldiers are running out of supplies and munitions and initial gains made by Moscow are being reversed, Jeremy Fleming is expected to add in a rare public address.

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Ukraine to demand step-change in western aid after Russian missile blitz

Kyiv presses military and diplomatic wishlist as French president sees ‘profound change in nature of this war’

Volodymyr Zelenskiy will address G7 leaders on Tuesday to demand a significant increase in their military and diplomatic support after the biggest Russian missile attack on Ukrainian cities since the start of the war.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, described the attack, in which cruise missiles and armed drones rained down on parks, playgrounds, power stations and other civilian targets, as “a profound change in the nature of this war”.

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‘This only unites us’: defiance as deadly strikes bring war back to Kyiv

Series of missiles shatter several months of calm but normal life quickly returns amid the destruction

Shevchenko Park in central Kyiv is a tranquil public garden, where the trees are turning golden against the city’s blue, autumnal skies. Presiding over the park is a statue of Taras Shevchenko, Ukraine’s national poet, persecuted by the Russians in the 19th century for writing in Ukrainian.

But on Monday that sense of calm was violently shattered when a series of missiles hit the city centre. War had returned to what had been, for several months, a mostly peaceful – if anxious – city.

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Russian pop star who criticised Ukraine war says she is in Israel

Alla Pugacheva, whose husband has been declared a ‘foreign agent’, denounced invasion three weeks ago

The Russian pop singer Alla Pugacheva has said she is in Israel, three weeks after she publicly criticised Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine when Moscow declared her husband a “foreign agent”.

“I thank my multimillion army of fans for their love and support, for the ability to distinguish truth from lies,” the 73-year-old, known as the “queen of Soviet pop music”, said in an Instagram post on Monday.

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Cutting oil output risks global economy, warns US Treasury secretary

Janet Yellen’s comments come as figures show business activity declining across most UK regions

The world’s biggest oil-producing nations cutting production at a time of soaring energy costs is “unhelpful and unwise” for global economic growth, the US Treasury secretary has warned, amid intense pressure from sky-high inflation.

Ahead of meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, Janet Yellen said the move by Opec+ – the oil production cartel led by Saudi Arabia, plus Russia – risked undermining the world economy.

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