We will be pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine and returning in a few hours to bring you all the latest developments. You can find a summary of where things stand here

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The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has issued casualty figures for the past 24 hours, claiming that one person was killed and seven injured in the territory it occupies. It claims this was the result of Ukrainian shelling. The claims have not been independently verified. The Donetsk People’s Republic is only recognised as a legitimate authority by three UN member states.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukraine’s governor of Donetsk, has said that five civilians were killed in the region on 21 July, and that a further 10 people were injured. Posting to Telegram, he said three of the deaths occurred in Siversk.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 637 civilians have been killed and another 1,641 injured as a result of shelling and bombing in Donetsk region. The number of Russian victims in Mariupol and Volnovakha is currently unknown.

Strikes indicate ‘huge battle’ may be on way that will be a key test of Kyiv troops’ ability to push Russia back

• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates

The war in Ukraine may be heading for its bloodiest phase yet, according to senior Ukrainian officials and western analysts, who say a long-threatened southern counteroffensive by Kyiv’s forces will result in a “huge battle” and will need to overcome increasingly well dug-in Russian troops.

People interviewed by the Guardian, including those who have recently escaped Kherson, describe Russian forces in the south building hardened tank shelters, digging trenches and bringing in prefabricated concrete pillboxes by lorry.

Russian military likely to pause operations in coming weeks, offering Ukraine an opportunity, says British spy chief

The United States estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached around 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA director William Burns said.

“The latest estimates from the US intelligence community would be something in the vicinity of 15,000 (Russian forces) killed and maybe three times that wounded. So a quite significant set of losses,” Burns said while speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.

Russia is prioritising the capture of critical national infrastructure, such as power plants.

However, it is probably also attempting to break through at Vuhlehirska, as part of its efforts to regain momentum on the southern pincer of its advance towards the key cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.”

Sergei Lavrov’s televised remarks give signal Kremlin is planning a campaign to annex more regions

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, has said that Moscow wants to permanently occupy broad swaths of southern Ukraine in the clearest signal yet that the Kremlin is preparing to launch a new round of annexations.

In televised remarks, Lavrov also said Russia may seek more territory along the frontlines in Ukraine, calling it a buffer against the Himars long-range rocket artillery provided by the US.