Monday briefing: ​How are Iranians abroad grappling with loss and uncertainty from afar?

In today’s newsletter: Across the Iranian diaspora, reactions to the escalating conflict reveal a complex mix of fear, grief and deep political ambivalence

Good morning. War has broken out in the Middle East. As the Iran war broadens and spills out into neighbouring countries, media agencies have rightly focused on trying to understand how the conflict came about, where bombs have fallen, and how many have died, while many states globally fear spikes in energy prices and wonder how the war will impact their economies.

What can easily get lost are the voices of the people directly affected.

Iran | Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor.

UK politics | Keir Starmer sought to repair fractured relations with Donald Trump over the war with Iran on Sunday, as a Labour backlash gathered pace over Tony Blair’s assertion the UK should have supported the US’s initial airstrikes on Iran.

Energy | Great Britain has only two days of fossil gas stored after a decline in energy reserves, as more tankers carrying liquefied natural gas are diverted from their course to Europe towards Asia because of the Iran war. Meanwhile, global oil prices surged past the $100 (£74) a barrel mark for the first time since 2022.

Health | More than 400 lives may have been saved as a result of Martha’s rule, which lets NHS patients request a review of their care. Thousands of patients were either moved to intensive care, received drugs they needed or benefited from other changes as a direct result of over 10,000 calls to helplines.

AI | ChatGPT is driving a rise in reports of organised ritual abuse and “witchcraft, spirit possession and spiritual abuse” against children – which is historically under-reported in the UK – as survivors of “satanic” sexual violence use the AI tool for therapy.

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Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader

Move could lead to escalation of war as Donald Trump has already called Mojtaba Khamenei an unacceptable choice

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor.

Members of the clerical body responsible for selecting Iran’s highest authority announced the decision on Sunday, calling on Iranians to rally behind him and preserve national unity.

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Iran’s new supreme leader has been selected, says deciding body

Israel says it will target any figure chosen to succeed Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes

The body in charge of selecting a new supreme leader for Iran says it has reached a decision – although the name was not immediately announced.

Israel has warned it would target any figure chosen to replace Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes on the first day of the war with Iran.

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Offer from Iran’s president not to attack neighbours provokes internal backlash

As Masoud Pezeshkian tries to de-escalate conflict, hardliners urge installation of new supreme leader to marginalise the president

The surprise offer by the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, not to attack countries in the neighbourhood so long as their airspace and US bases within their territories are not used to attack Iran has provoked a storm inside the country as the military appeared to contradict him, if not outright overrule him.

There were also calls for a new supreme leader to be installed as quickly as possible, as a means of marginalising the president. Attacks on facilities in Bahrain and elsewhere have continued, and there were unconfirmed reports that Bahrain had become the first Gulf country to fire back at Iran.

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Iran rejects Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender as a ‘dream’

Masoud Pezeshkian issues rare apology to neighbouring Gulf states for Iranian strikes as war enters eighth day

The president of Iran has rejected Donald Trump’s call for the country’s unconditional surrender as a “dream”, while issuing a rare apology for Iranian attacks that hit neighbouring states, even as missiles and drones continued to strike Gulf countries.

In a prerecorded address broadcast on state television on Saturday, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said the country would never capitulate, responding to remarks by the US president, who said on Friday that only Iran’s total submission could bring the war to an end.

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Trump skirts Congress over Iran war as Republicans simply step aside

Senate blocks war powers measure and House follows suit – now president can bomb Iran free from congressional interference

Before US troops invaded Iraq, George W Bush asked Congress to pass a resolution authorizing military force against Washington’s longtime nemesis, a request that lawmakers obliged.

Twenty four years later, the United States is at war with a different Middle Eastern rival – Iran – under a different Republican president – Donald Trump. But this time, the president did not bother to seek permission from the Senate and House of Representatives before joining Israel in launching the air and naval campaign. And far from objecting, Congress’s Republican majorities have simply stepped aside.

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Trump demands Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ as bombs pound Tehran and Beirut

US president again calls on Iranian people to overthrow government or face ‘absolutely guaranteed death’

Donald Trump has said only Iran’s “unconditional surrender” will bring an end to the offensive launched seven days ago, as the US and Israel carried out some of the heaviest bombardments so far in the conflict.

“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Friday, when US strategic bombers were in action over Iran and intensive Israeli strikes in Lebanon forced more than 1 million people to flee their homes.

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‘If they don’t stop, Tehran will turn into Gaza’: Iranians describe night of terror

People tell of scenes of panic during airstrikes on Iran’s capital, with several saying they feared they would die

Sleeplessness, fear and exhaustion gripped residents of Tehran as successive waves of strikes struck the Iranian capital, judging from messages sent by people in the city after the latest overnight onslaught, which several described as the worst bombardment in six days of war.

With Iran imposing a near-total internet blackout, information emerging from inside the country is fragmentary and difficult to verify. But in a series of accounts sent through proxy connections, and calls with friends abroad, Tehranis described a night of intense explosions.

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‘The memories stay behind’: hundreds of thousands flee the Israeli bombs in Beirut

The normally vibrant southern suburbs are a ghost town, their throngs of people replaced by rubble and fires

The ding of half a million phones, a pause and a collective gasp: in an instant, more than 500,000 people had been made homeless.

Shooting in the air, panicked phone calls and honking filled the streets of Beirut as people began to flee. Thousands abandoned their cars and began the slow march to the sea, desperate to escape the Israeli bombs which they knew would soon fall on their homes, whether they were in them or not.

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RAF jets could legally strike Iran’s missile bases, says David Lammy – UK politics live

Deputy prime minister says while jets currently only shooting down missiles, there is legal basis for them to do more

Hello and welcome to the UK politics blog.

Royal Air Force jets could legally strike Iranian missile sites being used to attack British interests in the Middle East, David Lammy has said this morning.

It is entirely legal to protect our people and protect our staff, and therefore all operational capability is available to us in those circumstances.

It is my understanding that that would be legal.

The UK is sending four additional Typhoon jets to Qatar, as well as Wildcat helicopters with anti-drone capabilities being sent to Cyprus, Keir Starmer said in a press conference yesterday. He said the US has been allowed to use British airfields to carry out defensive missions and that HMS Dragon is heading for the Mediterranean.

Kemi Badenoch has said the UK should take offensive action against Iran after UK bases were attacked. “We need to do what we can to stop the ability for these attacks to take place,” the Tory leader told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Shabana Mahmood put herself on a collision course with Labour MPs after announcing a set of changes to the immigration system that one backbencher said mimicked Donald Trump and another claimed would lead to a Windrush-style scandal. The home secretary announced her plans on Thursday, including an end to permanent refugee status and the removal of government support from asylum seekers who are deemed not to need it or who break the law.

A small number of asylum seekers whose claims are rejected will be offered an “increased incentive payment” of £10,000 per person and up to £40,000 per family to leave Britain under a pilot scheme, Mahmood said. The home secretary said the government would seek to echo reforms introduced in Denmark, where she said there had been “great success” in using incentives.

The husband of a Labour MP and two other men have been released on bail after being arrested on suspicion of spying for China. David Taylor, who is married to the Scottish Labour MP Joani Reid, is accused of assisting a foreign intelligence service.

Nigel Farage has described May’s Senedd elections as a “referendum” on Keir Starmer, as Reform UK gears up to battle Plaid Cymru for the chance to end a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Launching Reform’s election manifesto in Newport on Thursday alongside the party’s newly appointed Welsh leader, Dan Thomas, Farage said: “It’s a Welsh election, but I’m afraid, whether you like it or not, it doubles up as a referendum on Keir Starmer’s premiership.”

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US grants waiver to allow India to buy Russian oil amid Iran war

‘Stopgap measure’ designed to keep oil flowing into global market as Middle East crisis disrupts crude shipments

The US has temporarily allowed India to buy Russian oil currently stuck at sea in an effort to keep global supplies flowing and temper further price increases.

On Thursday the US treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil, having previously imposed heavy sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

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Iran-backed militias intensify attacks against US, Israel and allies

Iraq emerges as key front in new and often clandestine confrontation after launching dozens of attacks

Iran-backed militias around the Middle East are intensifying attacks against Israel, the US and their allies, in retaliation for the ongoing joint US-Israeli offensive against Tehran as the war draws in new armed actors, threatening wider chaos and violence.

Israel and the US have targeted Iran’s network of militant groups, with Iraq emerging as a key front in this new and often clandestine confrontation.

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Ukraine to help US and its allies counter Iranian drones in Middle East, says Zelenskyy

Ukrainian president orders equipment and expertise to be provided to US in return to diplomatic support against Russia, saying ‘we help to defend from war those who help us’

The United States and its allies in the Middle East are seeking Ukraine’s expertise in countering Iran’s Shahed drones, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

Various countries, including the US, have approached Ukraine for help in defending against the Iranian drones, Zelenskyy said late on Wednesday. He said he has spoken in recent days to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait about possible cooperation.

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Israel orders more than 500,000 people to evacuate Beirut’s southern suburbs

Instruction comes as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launches retaliatory strikes

The Israeli military has ordered the entire population of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate, as it continued to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases across the region.

An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson told all residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs – more than 500,000 people – to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately”, before Israel launched airstrikes on what he described as Hezbollah targets. The area covered by the order included several hospitals and government ministries.

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Oil price continues to rise amid Middle East crisis but stock markets rebound across Asia

Reports of attack on US registered tanker in Gulf lifts crude by 3% to $84 a barrel as gas price also starts to climb

Stock markets have rebounded in Asia after days of heavy losses driven by the war in the Middle East, but oil and gas prices have continued to climb amid disruption to supplies.

South Korea’s KOSPI, which posted its biggest ever fall on Tuesday of 12%, rose by almost 10% on Thursday, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed by 1.9%. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan jumped by 2.7%.

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Starmer’s slow start in the war against Iran could leave UK playing catch-up

Prime minister’s initial refusal to help US could constrain Britain’s ability to protect its nationals in the Gulf and reassure allies

Britain knew that the US was considering attacking Iran from the moment Donald Trump told protesters that “help is coming” in the middle of January. It was obvious to the world that the White House was serious when the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was sent to the Arabian Sea in late January.

But as Trump gradually built up his “massive armada”, reinforcing it with a second carrier strike group in mid-February, UK deployments were constrained and limited even though there was a recognition that it was likely allies and bases with British soldiers would be attacked in an Iranian retaliation.

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Gavin Newsom likens Israel to ‘an apartheid state’ and decries war on Iran

California governor, promoting his memoir in LA, was asked if US should rethink military partnership with Israel

Gavin Newsom, the Democratic California governor, likened Israel to “an apartheid state” on Tuesday in comments sharply critical of the country’s joint war with the US against Iran.

Newsom, seen as a frontrunner for his party’s presidential nomination in 2028, made the comment during an appearance in Los Angeles to promote his book, Young Man in a Hurry: A Memoir of Discovery. He was asked if the US should rethink its military partnership with Israel.

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Pete Hegseth says US is ‘investigating’ deadly strike on girls’ school in Iran

US defense secretary was evasive when asked about the airstrike that Iranian officials say killed at least 165 students

Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, offered few details and was evasive when asked about the deadly strike on a girls’ school in Iran, saying only that the US was “investigating” the incident.

Iranian officials say the attack, which happened on Saturday, killed at least 165 students.

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Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut as Iran vows ‘complete destruction’ in region

Rapidly escalating war enters fifth day and spreads as far as Indian Ocean with sinking of Iranian vessel off Sri Lanka

Israel has carried out a wave of airstrikes on Iranian security targets and Hezbollah in Beirut as Tehran threatened the “complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure” as the rapidly escalating war entered its fifth day and reached as far as the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka.

The Israeli military said it had hit buildings in Iran belonging to the Basij, the volunteer police arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and buildings belonging to internal security forces. Police stations and IRGC headquarters in the Kurdish regions of north-western Iran were also razed by strikes, Kurdish media reported.

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Britain not ruling out future strikes on Iran missile sites, officials indicate

‘We just don’t know what will happen,’ western officials say, as UK bases prepare for arrival of US heavy bombers

Britain has not ruled out participating in future strikes against Iranian ballistic missile launch sites, officials have indicated.

US heavy bombers are expected to reach UK bases at Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands and Fairford in Gloucestershire in the next few days, from where they are expected to attack Iran’s underground “missile cities”.

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