Heavy election defeat could lead to Tory lurch to right, analysis shows

With another two-point slip from current polling, about 40% of Tory MPs would come from populist right

A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.

A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.

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May election is ‘worst kept secret in Westminster’, says senior Labour MP

Emily Thornberry says country is desperate, and Labour is ready, for general election

Labour is talking up the prospect of a May 2024 general election, with the shadow cabinet minister Emily Thornberry saying it was “the worst kept secret in Westminster” that a contest would be called then.

Thornberry told Sky News on Thursday that the government’s decision to announce a budget in early March – the earliest date in 13 years apart from during the pandemic – “seems to confirm” that May is the most likely date.

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Blair was keen to relocate Wimbledon FC to Belfast in late 1990s, papers show

Then PM thought move ‘would be excellent’ but Northern Ireland secretary Mo Mowlam was sceptical

Newly released state papers show that the former prime minister Tony Blair backed proposals for Wimbledon FC to move to Belfast but his Northern Ireland secretary Mo Mowlam was more sceptical.

Previously confidential state papers include a note from 1997 described as “following up earlier informal discussions about the possibility of an English Premier League football club relocating to Belfast”.

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Labour plans thousands of nursery places in English primary schools

Party has asked former Ofsted head Sir David Bell to find new ways to increase levels of childcare

Labour is considering creating thousands of nursery places inside existing primary schools in England and has tasked the former Ofsted head Sir David Bell with finding new ways to increase levels of childcare.

In the latest evolution of Labour’s policy in an area that still has a widespread shortage of spaces, plus a lack of affordability and staffing, Bell will advise on potential ways to tackle this, with detailed policies set out nearer the election.

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Jeremy Hunt fuels election speculation as 6 March spring budget announced

Chancellor has asked the OBR to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances to be presented to parliament

Jeremy Hunt has announced that a spring budget expected to feature a host of tax cuts will be held on 6 March, fuelling speculation over an early general election.

While government sources insisted nothing should be read into the date, it is the earliest the set-piece fiscal event has been held in 13 years of Conservative government – apart from 2021 when the Treasury was trying to kickstart the economy after Covid.

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How a spring UK budget could fire the starting gun for an early election

UK economic prospects are bleak but an agenda-setting fiscal event such as sweeping tax cuts in March offers another roll of the dice

To grasp the nettle, or wait in the hope that things somehow miraculously improve. This is the choice Rishi Sunak will be weighing for the next general election, as the Conservatives limp towards the finishing line of another challenging year.

After Jeremy Hunt announced the government would hold an earlier than anticipated budget, with a date set for 6 March, the possibility of a poll in May, in the afterglow of some electioneering tax cuts, is clearly being given considerable thought.

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Pint of wine anyone? UK looks to bring back ‘silly measure’

Winemakers question plan as government champions Brexit ‘freedom’ to allow old-fashioned size

The poet Robert Burns imagined a man toasting his lover with a “pint o’ wine”, and Winston Churchill was perhaps the most famous proponent of the pint bottle for champagne. Now, Rishi Sunak’s government has spied a “Brexit opportunity” to legalise the sale of wine by the pint once more – if it can persuade anyone to make the bottles.

Still and sparkling wine will be sold in 200ml, 500ml and 568ml (pint) sizes in 2024, alongside existing measures, under new rules, the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) announced on Wednesday. It said the change was made possible by Brexit.

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David Trimble was ‘extraordinarily rude’ to Tony Blair at Good Friday talks

Newly released 1999 briefing by Irish civil servant reveals lack of trust during tense peace negotiations

David Trimble was “extraordinarily rude” to Tony Blair during tense negotiations about the implementation of the Good Friday agreement, accusing the then prime minister of laying a “crude trap” for unionists, one Irish official wrote of the encounter in 1999.

The meeting between Blair and Trimble, the leader of the Ulster Unionist party, took place in Belfast as the British prime minister and Ireland’s taoiseach Bertie Ahern met all the Northern Ireland parties to discuss the steps that needed to be taken to implement the peace accord.

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Tories to promise help for first-time buyers in effort to lure voters, say reports

Conservatives also reportedly planning to cut inheritance tax in three months’ time, as party struggles badly in polls

The Conservatives could introduce a series of pre-election giveaways with measures to support first-time buyers and scrap inheritance tax, according to reports.

With the Tories struggling badly in the polls and an election almost certain next year, the Times said the government is to promise to cut the upfront cost of a home for first-time buyers.

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End government by WhatsApp, urges former GCHQ head

Sir David Omand tells parliamentary inquiry the platform should be restricted to ‘background mood music’

The former head of GCHQ has called for an end to the government handling crises over WhatsApp, saying the platform might suit gossip and informal exchanges but is inappropriate for important decision-making.

Sir David Omand, who ran the UK intelligence service before becoming the permanent secretary of the Home Office and the Cabinet Office, criticised the way government was conducted in the pandemic and said future crises should be handled with “proper process”.

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Italian woman facing removal from UK despite ‘permanent residency’ card

Silvana one of potentially thousands who were unaware of need to apply for post-Brexit EU settlement scheme

An Italian environmental technology investor who has lived in the UK for 14 years has discovered she could be removed despite getting a “permanent residency” card after Brexit.

She is one of potentially tens of thousands of EU citizens who were unaware the Home Office changed the rules in 2019 requiring them to apply for a different scheme, called EU settlement.

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Labour to crack down on ‘dodgy’ candy stores in push to revive high streets

Party says American-style sweetshops – some under investigation for tax evasion – are ripping off public

A Labour government will launch a crackdown on “dodgy” candy stores if it wins the next election, as part of plans to revitalise Britain’s high streets.

There are more than 20 of the US-themed sweet stores on Oxford Street, London, alone. Many of them appeared during lockdown as high-street stalwarts closed down and landlords faced the prospect of long-term empty shops.

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Labour reportedly considering offshoring asylum seekers’ claims

Keir Starmer mulling ‘detailed plans’ to outsource process overseas as alternative to Rwanda plan

Labour is reportedly considering a scheme that would see asylum seekers’ claims processed elsewhere.

Keir Starmer is mulling “detailed plans” for an offshoring scheme as he seeks to deter Tory attacks on Labour’s alternative to the Rwanda plan, the Times said on Monday.

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England has ‘twice as many empty homes as families stuck in B&Bs’

There are 121,327 in short-term housing, while 261,189 homes are empty long-term, say Lib Dems

England has more than twice as many long-term empty homes this Christmas as there are children living in temporary accommodation, the Liberal Democrats have said, calling this a stark indication of a “broken” housing market.

The numbers of families without a permanent home and in short-term housing, whether hotels and B&Bs or temporary rental properties, has hit a record high this year, with the latest statistics showing it now affects 121,327 children, according to data collated by the House of Commons library.

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Rwanda bill will ‘get the job done’ and stop small boat crossings, says David Cameron

Foreign secretary also said Iran was a ‘thoroughly malign’ geopolitical influence

A failure to tackle the issue of small boat crossings in the English Channel would be destructive to people’s faith in politicians and government, David Cameron has claimed.

In comments aimed at rebellious Tory backbenchers unhappy with Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation, Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, said it was the “best bill to get the job done”.

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Reform UK leader gives ‘guarantee’ that it won’t step aside for Tories at election

Richard Tice assures senior members of his party in writing that he will not revive Brexit party’s 2019 deal with Conservatives

The leader of Reform UK has given “cast-iron guarantees” to senior members of his rightwing populist party that it will not step aside for the Conservatives at the forthcoming general election.

The Tories were able to win a majority in 2019 after Reform’s previous incarnation, the Brexit party, did not field any candidates against them in return for Boris Johnson’s commitment to leave the EU by 2020 before pursuing a Canada-style trade deal.

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Britain to send patrol ship to Guyana amid Venezuela border dispute

HMS Trent will take part in exercises with Guyana as tensions over mineral-rich Essequibo region raise anxieties

A Royal Navy patrol ship will be sent to Guyana in a show of British support for the Commonwealth country.

The South American country is in a dispute with Venezuela over a mineral-rich border region.

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James Cleverly apologises for ‘appalling’ date rape drug joke at No 10 event

Home secretary said secret of a long marriage was sedating spouse on the same day a new policy on spiking was announced

James Cleverly has apologised for joking about spiking his wife’s drink with a date rape drug in comments made at a Downing Street reception.

The home secretary’s remarks came just hours after the Home Office announced plans to crack down on spiking, when someone puts drugs into another person’s drink or directly into their body without their knowledge or consent.

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Sadiq Khan backs sending 4x4s due for scrappage under Ulez to Ukraine

London mayor had claimed law stopped him allowing vehicles beneath emissions standards to be donated to war effort

Sadiq Khan has pledged to send 4x4s and other vehicles to Ukraine that would otherwise be scrapped under the Ulez scheme.

The mayor of London has asked the transport secretary, Mark Harper, to enable people to donate suitable vehicles to Ukraine through scrappage schemes.

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Two former health secretaries join calls for new law on assisted dying

Senior Conservative and Labour figures said they would back changes to legislation on the issue in England and Wales

Two former health secretaries on Saturday night became the latest senior figures to join the growing demands for a new attempt to legalise assisted dying, as a prominent Tory said he is willing to champion the legislation in parliament.

With both former Conservative minister Stephen Dorrell and Labour’s Alan Milburn stating they back changing the law in England and Wales, the Observer understands that a Labour government would make time and expert advice available for an assisted dying bill should MPs back it in a free House of Commons vote.

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