While the focus is on Ukraine, Russia’s presence in the Sahel is steadily growing | Bruce Mutsvairo, Mirjam de Bruijn, Kristin Skare Orgeret

With Russian mercenaries invited to Mali as European forces withdraw, how worried should the west be about Russia’s increasing influence across Africa?

Even in the turbulent, conflict-wracked Sahel region of Africa, the recent military takeover in Burkina Faso was intriguing. Amid the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation, the decision by neighbouring Mali’s military-led government to invite fighters from the Wagner Group, widely seen as a paramilitary network of mercenaries with Russian connections, is causing growing concern in many western capitals.

Mali’s transitional government faces a rough road to recognition after the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) announced a strengthening of economic and diplomatic sanctions in January in response to the proposal to postpone elections until at least 2026.

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Trump risked disaster with Abbas praise in key Israel meeting, ambassador says

In new book, David Friedman recounts private meeting with Israeli president in which Trump also knocked Netanyahu – and how he says he turned his man around

Meeting then-Israeli president Reuven Rivlin in Jerusalem in May 2017, Donald Trump stunned advisers by criticising the then-prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for being unwilling to seek peace while Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, was “desperate” for a deal.

The comment “knocked everyone off their chairs”, David Friedman, Trump’s ambassador to Israel, writes in a new book.

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Don’t panic: why Ukraine doesn’t like western talk of imminent attack

Analysis: While Putin’s intentions remain unclear, Kyiv would rather it didn’t get classed as the next Kabul

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has again insisted that Russia does not currently have enough troops in place to mount a further invasion of Ukraine, a day after Boris Johnson travelled to Kyiv and said there was a “clear and present danger” of an imminent military campaign.

Even taken together, the troops currently massed on Ukraine’s border with Russia, on the annexed Crimea peninsula and in neighbouring Belarus, are “insufficient for a large-scale military operation”, said Kuleba in a briefing for foreign journalists on Wednesday.

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From eastern Europe we watch Ukraine in fear. Its fate could decide the continent’s future

Past trauma means we worry about Russia reclaiming its cold war sphere of influence and that the west will again abandon us

Two points about the Ukraine crisis are crystal clear. First, Vladimir Putin wishes to reimpose Russian control over Ukraine, whatever the price. His political dream of restoring the Soviet sphere of influence is echoed in a wishlist of “security guarantees” presented to western governments by Russia in December 2021. Nato, he maintains, should return to the pre-1997 state of affairs; Russia, apparently, need not.

Second, whatever Putin decides in the current crisis, there are real fears in central and eastern Europe that settled borders are now under threat. These fears are grounded in reason. What seemed unrealistic in the immediate post-cold war years is now again a real possibility. Questions about our collective safety and security have returned, along with memories of a traumatic and not so remote past.

Karolina Wigura is a historian of ideas, board member of the Kultura Liberalna Foundation in Warsaw and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin

Jarosław Kuisz is a political analyst and essayist, editor-in-chief of the Polish weekly Kultura Liberalna and a policy fellow at the University of Cambridge

Guardian Newsroom: Will Russia invade Ukraine? Join Mark Rice-Oxley, Andrew Roth, Luke Harding, Nataliya Gumenyuk and Orysia Lutsevych discussing the developments with Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday 8 February, 8pm GMT | 9pm CET | midday PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets here

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Biden says US is ‘ready no matter what happens’ as Russia escalates threat on Ukraine – as it happened

Donald Trump is being widely accused of “saying the quiet part loud”, when protesting that Mike Pence could have “overturned” his boss’s election defeat by Joe Biden.

Though he has appeared to admit Biden won before, Trump usually insists he won and his opponent stole the election through voter fraud – the “big lie” which animates rallies like one in Conroe, Texas, on Saturday.

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US to target Putin’s inner circle with sanctions in event of Ukraine invasion

Washington official says sanctions list will comprise oligarchs and their family members

Washington and its allies have prepared a list of Russian elites in or near Vladimir Putin’s inner circle who would be hit with economic sanctions if the Kremlin were to order an invasion of Ukraine, according to a US briefing.

The language in the briefing by a US official to Reuters is notably similar to that used on Sunday by the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, who said Britain would introduce legislation to allow banks, energy companies and “oligarchs close to the Kremlin” to be targeted by London, and makes clear the targeting is coordinated internationally.

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US urges North Korea to join direct talks after latest missile test by Pyongyang

  • Biden official: ‘We reiterate our call for diplomacy’
  • South Korean leader fears return to war threats of 2017

The US on Sunday made a direct appeal to North Korea to join direct talks with no preconditions about its nuclear and missile programs, after Pyongyang sent a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into space.

“We believe it is completely appropriate and completely correct to start having some serious discussions,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters.

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Joe Biden demands release of Mark Frerichs, US Afghanistan hostage

  • President marks second anniversary of engineer’s capture
  • Family says safe return should be Biden priority

Joe Biden on Sunday called for the release of Mark Frerichs, a US Navy veteran taken hostage in Afghanistan nearly two years ago.

Frerichs, a civil engineer and contractor from Lombard, Illinois, was kidnapped in January 2020 in the Afghan capital, Kabul. He is believed to be held by the Taliban-linked Haqqani network.

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China’s ambassador to US warns of possible military conflict over Taiwan

Unusually explicit reference to prospect of war comes as tensions over island’s future continue to rise

China’s ambassador to the US has said the two countries could face a “military conflict” over the future of Taiwan, in an unusually explicit reference to the prospect of war.

“The Taiwan issue is the biggest tinderbox between China and the United States,” Qin Gang told the US public broadcaster National Public Radio (NPR), on Friday. “If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in the military conflict.”

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Russia remains open but ‘not optimistic’ over Ukraine talks

Moscow unhappy with rejection of demand for veto over Ukraine’s potential Nato membership

Russia has said it is willing to continue talks with the US over European security, but is not optimistic about their prospects after Washington and Nato allies again rejected a key part of the Kremlin’s proposed new order for post-cold war security.

Tensions have soared in recent weeks as Russia massed more than 100,000 soldiers and heavy weapons at its border with Ukraine, raising fears of an invasion.

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US weapons arrive in Ukraine as Biden faces test over allies’ unity – live

Joe Biden will meet with several CEOs this afternoon to discuss Democrats’ Build Back Better Act, the $1.75tn spending package that includes massive investments in healthcare, childcare and climate initiatives.

“This afternoon, I’m meeting with CEOs who support passing my Build Back Better Agenda to discuss how it’ll invest in American workers, grow our economy, and lower inflation in the long-term,” Biden said on Twitter.

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Why are Germany and France at odds with the Anglosphere over how to handle Russia?

Analysis: Differing views over Russia within Nato alliance resurface in Ukraine crisis

Can the western alliance against Russia over its buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border hold together? It is a question that politicians and diplomats are increasingly grappling with amid fears that Germany and, to a lesser extent, France are in danger of dividing from the US and the UK, not only over how to respond to any future Russian act of aggression in Ukraine, but also in their assessment of the imminence of the threat.

Every effort is being made to minimise the differences within the Nato alliance, including through regular calls such as the one led by Joe Biden on Monday, but they may be impossible to avoid since they reflect not just different short-term assessments on intelligence, but a deep fissure going back decades about what Germany and France, as opposed to the Anglosphere, regard as the best way to handle Russia.

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Biden warns Russia of ‘enormous consequences’ if it invades Ukraine – live

Staff turnover in the Biden administration is nowhere near what it was under Donald Trump, when senior aides came and went as through a revolving door in a hurricane.

Nonetheless, the press always likes a bit of speculation about who might be in and who might be out, and here comes the Washington Post with an exhaustive examination of how Ron Klain, Joe Biden’s chief of staff, has not had the smoothest first year in the job.

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US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply

Officials working with global suppliers to avoid European gas crisis if flow from Russia is cut as Biden says he would consider personal sanctions against Putin

The US has helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut, in an effort to blunt Vladimir Putin’s most powerful economic weapon.

As fears of an invasion of Ukraine have grown, US officials said on Tuesday that they had been negotiating with global suppliers, and they were now confident that Europe would not suffer from a sudden loss of energy for heating in the middle of winter.

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Ukraine: US offers Putin summit with Biden in effort to stop slide to war

Move comes amid ‘frank and substantive’ talks in Geneva and announcement by Russia of new military exercises

The US has offered to hold a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin as a last-ditch effort to stop the slide to a new war in Europe, as Russia continued to build up its forces along the Ukraine border and announced new naval exercises in the Black Sea.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said Washington and its allies were also ready to respond in writing next week to Russian demands on the future of Nato and European security, which Moscow has said must be addressed to avoid it taking “military measures”. But, speaking in Geneva where he held talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Blinken repeated the US and Nato position there could still be no compromise on the central issue of the right of Ukraine and other countries to join Nato in the future.

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Biden warns Russia will ‘pay a heavy price’ if Putin launches Ukraine invasion – as it happened

Here’s where the day stands so far:

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Biden warns Russia will ‘pay heavy price’ if it invades Ukraine – video

Joe Biden sought to clarify US policy on a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine after his remarks about how the Nato alliance might respond to a 'minor incursion' triggered alarm in Kyiv. Biden told reporters at the White House: 'If any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion. Let there be no doubt if Putin makes this choice, Russia will pay a heavy price'

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US accuses Russia of conspiring to take over Ukraine government

Treasury imposes sanctions on four current and former Ukraine government officials it says involved in alleged conspiracy

The US has alleged that Russian intelligence is recruiting current and former Ukrainian government officials to take over the government in Kyiv and cooperate with a Russian occupying force.

The US Treasury on Thursday imposed sanctions on two Ukrainian members of parliament and two former officials it said were involved in the alleged conspiracy, which involved discrediting the current government of the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

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Joe Biden thinks Russia will attack Ukraine – but will face a ‘stiff price’

US president alarms government in Kyiv by saying Nato was divided on how to respond to ‘minor incursion’

Joe Biden has said he thinks Russia will attack Ukraine, warning that Moscow would face a “stiff price”, but he admitted Nato was divided on how to respond if there is only a “minor incursion”.

The White House was forced to issue a hasty clarification to that last point, saying that any movement of Russian forces over the border would be treated as invasion.

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What have Ukraine talks achieved, and is war now more likely?

Russia calls talks a ‘dead end’ and it becomes clear that troop build-up is not a bluff to achieve other ends

The Guardian’s world affairs editor assesses the outcome of three rounds of talks this week about the fate of Ukraine, involving Russia, the US, Nato and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Did the talks achieve anything?

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