Is the worst of the pandemic behind us? Here’s what scientists know | Devi Sridhar

A second wave of coronavirus cases would be disastrous – but there are ways to prevent this happening

Over the weekend, there were no new deaths from coronavirus in London, Scotland or Northern Ireland. Slowly, the number of hospitalisations and deaths is falling across the UK. Rather than celebrating these early signs that the worst of the pandemic could be behind us, however, some scientists are warning of a second wave of infections – an increase in coronavirus cases in the coming weeks or months, which could occur even after a sustained fall in the number of cases. 

These warnings often refer back to the 1918 flu pandemic. That outbreak killed tens of millions of people when it returned the following winter in a deadlier form after the first outbreak had been controlled. But there’s a confusing lack of consensus from scientists about whether we’ll see a second wave of coronavirus cases. Although the future is uncertain, we can imagine four scenarios for what might come next. 

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How would a coronavirus vaccine work and will we even get one? – video explainer

Science editor Ian Sample explains how vaccines work, runs through some of the main obstacles to creating one for coronavirus and preparing it for public use, and tells us which scenario he thinks is most realistic in the next 18 months 

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Surgisphere: mass audit of papers linked to firm behind hydroxychloroquine Lancet study scandal

Questions continue for Surgisphere and CEO Sapan Desai as universities deny knowledge of links to firm behind Lancet’s now-disputed blockbuster study

Dozens of scientific papers co-authored by the chief executive of the US tech company behind the Lancet hydroxychloroquine study scandal are now being audited, including one that a scientific integrity expert claims contains images that appear to have been digitally manipulated.

The audit follows a Guardian investigation that found the company, Surgisphere, used suspect data in major scientific studies that were published and then retracted by world-leading medical journals, including the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine.

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Coronavirus live news: New Zealand ‘Covid-19 free’ as UK travel quarantine rules begin

New Zealand has zero active cases; Global cases pass 7 million, deaths pass 400,000; Chile deaths jump after new fatalities added. Follow the latest updates

The Ryanair boss, Michael O’Leary, has delivered his withering verdict on Britain’s quarantine rules, which came into force today: “British people are ignoring this quarantine. They know it’s rubbish.”

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Related: Ryanair boss: Britons know quarantine rules are rubbish

The Philippines has reported 579 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 today, and eight deaths. Malaysia has reported seven new confirmed cases, and no deaths.

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Brazil stops releasing Covid-19 death toll and wipes data from official site

Government accused of totalitarianism and censorship after Bolsonaro orders end to publication of numbers

The Brazilian government has been accused of totalitarianism and censorship after it stopped releasing its total numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths and wiped an official site clean of swaths of data.

Health ministry insiders told local media the move was ordered by far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, himself – and was met with widespread outrage in Brazil, one of the world’s worst-hit Covid-19 hotspots, with more deaths than Italy and more cases than Russia and the UK.

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What is the coronavirus R number and is it rising in the UK?

Research suggests the average number of people one person infects may be increasing – but opinions differ as to why

With models suggesting that R could have risen above 1 in some parts of the UK, we look at what that means and how concerned we should be:

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Breakthrough close on coronavirus antibody therapy: reports

Scientists say injection of cloned antibodies could help treat people already infected, while vaccine development continues

Scientists working on coronavirus treatments may be close to a breakthrough on an antibody treatment that could save the lives of people who become infected, it has been reported.

An injection of cloned antibodies that counteract Covid-19 could prove significant for those in the early stages of infection, according to the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.

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‘It’s psychologically easier’: how anti-vaxxers capitalised on coronavirus fears to spread misinformation

While many believe a Covid-19 vaccine will be a ‘ticket out’, experts are concerned getting people to take it is the real challenge

When Susan had a baby daughter, she was not planning on having her vaccinated. It didn’t seem abnormal to her – most of her mothers’ group didn’t vaccinate either.

“I had friends who believed in natural healing, healthy food, being vegan, eating raw food. I just didn’t think that vaccines were necessary.” 

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WHO advises public to wear face masks when unable to distance

Over-60s should use medical-grade masks and all others three-layer fabric ones, health body says

People over 60 or with health issues should wear a medical-grade mask when they are out and cannot socially distance, according to new guidance from the World Health Organization, while all others should wear a three-layer fabric mask.

The announcement on Friday marks a significant change of stance by the WHO, which until now has been reluctant to advocate the wearing of masks by the public because of limited evidence that they offer protection.

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Coronavirus live news: Sweden sees third consecutive day of over 1,000 new cases; virus ‘under control’ in France

Brazil death toll passes Italy; New York urges protesters to get tested; Turkey announces weekend lockdown in 15 cities

The commander of US forces in Japan has accused China of using the coronavirus crisis as a cover for a surge in naval activity to push territorial claims in the South China Sea.

In a telephone interview with the Reuters news agency, Lieutenant General Kevin Schneider said there had been a surged of activity by China, with navy ships, coast guard vessels and a naval militia of fishing boats in harassing vessels in waters claimed by Beijing.

Peru is beginning the second phase of its economic reopening on Friday, even as its ongoing coronavirus outbreak showed little signs of slowing, with 4,284 new confirmed cases reported on Thursday.

The president, Martin Vizcarra, announced the second phase of lockdown easing on Thursday, after his council of ministers approved a presidential decree calling for the restart of economic activity.

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Vitamin K could help fight coronavirus, study suggests

Scientists in Netherlands explore possible link between deficiency and Covid-19 deaths

Patients who have died or been admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 have been found to be deficient in a vitamin found in spinach, eggs and hard and blue cheeses, raising hopes that dietary change might be one part of the answer to combating the disease.

Researchers studying patients who were admitted to the Canisius Wilhelmina hospital in the Dutch city of Nijmegen have extolled the benefits of vitamin K after discovering a link between deficiency and the worst coronavirus outcomes.

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Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials

Retraction made after Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in data

The Lancet paper that halted global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 because of fears of increased deaths has been retracted after a Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in the data.

The lead author, Prof Mandeep Mehra, from the Brigham and Women’s hospital in Boston, Massachusetts decided to ask the Lancet for the retraction because he could no longer vouch for the data’s accuracy.

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Unreliable data: how doubt snowballed over Covid-19 drug research that swept the world

A vast database from a little-known company called Surgisphere has influenced rapid policy shifts as the world seeks treatments for Covid-19. But as researchers began to examine it more closely, they became increasingly concerned

Dr Carlos Chaccour had just woken up in Barcelona when he opened his laptop to read the latest Covid-19 research.

Usually, he would start the day by meditating, but that was proving difficult in the middle of a global pandemic.

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WHO to resume hydroxychloroquine trial after earlier halt over safety concerns

Questions raised over study claiming drug linked to higher rate of mortality and heart problems in Covid-19 patients

The World Health Organization will resume clinical trials of an anti-malaria drug researchers hope may treat Covid-19, after a study of the drug published in May by a major medical journal prompted them to halt trials due to safety concerns.

The paper, published in the Lancet, said hydroxychloroquine was associated with higher mortality rates and higher rates of heart problems in Covid-19 patients in hospitals around the world. The finding prompted the World Health Organization’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, to announce the hydroxychloroquine arm of its Solidarity global clinical trial would pause while the study and other findings were reviewed.

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How were medical journals and WHO caught out over hydroxychloroquine?

Studies under microscope after Guardian investigation reveals flaws with data from US company Surgisphere

Some scientific papers stop the world in its tracks. In the middle of a raging pandemic, a study in the world’s leading global health journal that seemed to prove President Trump wrong to laud the drug hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 was always going to have a massive impact. It did. When the paper flagged a higher risk of death on the drug, trials were stopped all over the world, including one by the World Health Organization.

Now it’s in danger of unravelling.

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‘We were packed like sardines’: evidence grows of mass-event dangers early in pandemic

Research appears to back up stories of people who believe they got coronavirus at events UK government allowed to go ahead

The last major football match played in England before all sport was suspended because of the coronavirus crisis was the European Champions League showpiece between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid. It was a thrilling contest that transfixed 54,000 people under the floodlights of Anfield.

But now that match, along with many other mass events that the government allowed to go ahead as the pandemic spread in March, is coming under renewed scrutiny as evidence grows of the lethal danger to which people were exposed. They include rugby matches, horse races, musical concerts and dog shows attended, in total, by hundreds of thousands of Britons.

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Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.

A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.

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Coronavirus live news: India evacuates Covid-19 patients ahead of cyclone as Brazil deaths pass 30,000

Yemen aid funding falls short by US$1bn; Zoom profits double; global cases pass 6.3m. Follow the latest updates

China reported one new coronavirus case and four new asymptomatic Covid-19 cases in the mainland on 2 June, the country’s health commission said.

The National Health Commission said the one confirmed case was imported involving a traveller from overseas. Mainland China had five confirmed cases, all of which were imported, and 10 asymptomatic cases for 1 June.

China does not count asymptomatic patients, those who are infected with the coronavirus but not exhibiting symptoms, as confirmed cases.

Total number of infections to date in the mainland stands at 83,021. The death toll remained unchanged at 4,634.

Dan Collyns brings you this action-packed update from Bolivia:

“Thanos is beating us” warned a Bolivian government minister in a live televised press conference on Monday as he called for his compatriots to comply with sanitary measures and lockdown restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Mientras tanto, en bolivia pic.twitter.com/5VPR4sDoX3

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Brazil poised to overtake Italy as country with third-highest death toll – as it happened

Sweden death rate now higher than France; Pakistan records largest single day rise in new infections; global deaths pass 380,000. This blog is now closed

We’ve launched a new blog at the link below:

Related: Coronavirus live news: Germany reveals major stimulus plan as global cases grow by 100,000 a day

At least three people were reported dead as coronavirus-hit Mumbai appeared to escape the worst of Cyclone Nisarga Wednesday, the first severe storm to threaten India’s financial capital in more than 70 years, AFP reports.

The city and its surrounds are usually sheltered from cyclones - the last deadly storm to hit the city was in 1948. Authorities had evacuated at least 100,000 people, including coronavirus patients, from flood-prone areas in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat ahead of Nisarga’s arrival.

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Coronavirus live news: cases in Africa pass 150,000; Germany lifts travel warning for Europe

Wuhan doctor who worked with whistlebower dies; Abu Dhabi closes borders; Dr Fauci says he hasn’t spoken to Trump in two weeks

In England, an official study has found that black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) people are up to 50% more likely to die after being infected with Covid-19.

The report, published today by Public Health England (PHE), reveals that people of Bangladeshi ethnicity had around twice the risk of death than people of white British ethnicity.

It’s Simon Murphy here covering the global live blog while my colleague, Damien Gayle, takes a break.

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