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This is from James Johnson, a Tory pollster (who worked for Theresa May in No 10) whose firm JL Partners carried out polling in Wakefield, on who ought to be taking the blame for the byelection defeats.
PM Media has just snapped this.
Boris Johnson has said he will “listen” to voters but will “keep going” after the Tories suffered a double by-election defeat.
Continue reading...Labour takes Wakefield and Lib Dems snatch Tiverton and Honiton, piling pressure on Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson has faced a double hammer blow to his authority after the Conservatives lost the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton byelections on the same night, prompting the party co-chair Oliver Dowden to resign.
Labour took Wakefield, while the Liberal Democrats overturned a 24,000-plus majority to snatch Tiverton and Honiton.
Continue reading...Loss of Wakefield, and Tiverton and Honiton could push backbench Tories towards restarting efforts to oust PM
Voting has closed for two crucial byelections, in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton, the results of which could play a pivotal role in Boris Johnson’s political future.
Defeat in both of what were previously Tory-held seats could reignite a challenge to the prime minister from disgruntled Conservative MPs, particularly if the Liberal Democrats overturn a 24,000-plus majority in Tiverton and Honiton.
Continue reading...Helen Hurford, Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton, blames media for stopping public from moving on from Partygate
The Conservative candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has blamed the media for preventing the public from “moving on” from Partygate and twice declined to say that Boris Johnson was honest.
In an interview with the Guardian, Helen Hurford acknowledged the party faced a very tight battle to retain the previously ultra-safe seat and criticised what she called the media’s “persistent regurgitating of Partygate”. Asked if she believed Boris Johnson was fundamentally honest, Hurford twice refused to say.
Continue reading...Anger grows before West Country byelection as farmers say they will be left poorer and unable to compete with foreign producers
Boris Johnson’s hopes of surviving as prime minister have been dealt a serious blow after farmers and environmentalists condemned his government’s post-Brexit food strategy as a disaster for people in the countryside – with less than two weeks to go before a key rural byelection.
In an interview with the Observer, the president of the National Farmers Union, Minette Batters, said ambitious proposals to help farmers increase food production, first put forward last year by the government’s food tsar, Henry Dimbleby, had been “stripped to the bone” in a new policy document, and meant farmers would not be able to produce affordable food.
Continue reading...With Sinn Féin set to become the biggest party at Stormont for the first time, O’Neill says the results mark a ‘new era’ for ‘our politics and for our people’
The elections to the Northern Ireland assembly are quite different to most UK elections. Members of the assembly are elected to 18 multi-member constituencies by single transferable vote.
Each constituency has five representatives, totalling 90 overall. Voters assign preferences to candidates on a ballot slip. If a candidate gets enough first-preference votes, they win a seat, and if not, second and then third preferences – and so on – are counted until all seats are filled.
Because of this, multiple counts are needed in each constituency, which means results can take a while to compile. It is possible for the first count not to result in the award of a seat. Another consequence is that it is not clear whether a party has increased or decreased its total seats in a constituency or overall, until all seats have been awarded.
By the terms of the Good Friday agreement the government of Northern Ireland is shared between the two main communities: nationalists, who favour closer ties with the Republic of Ireland, and unionists, for whom Northern Ireland’s position in the UK is more important. The largest party in the assembly appoints the first minister, and the largest party from the other community appoints the deputy first minister.
Some parties with cross-community support or whose supporters do not identify strongly with either community think this arrangement perpetuates divisions, but in practice since 1998 the largest party has always been from the unionist community and the second-largest from the nationalist.
Continue reading...PM insists ‘mixed’ results also included some ‘remarkable gains’ for Conservatives; Labour, Lib Dems and Greens celebrate key wins
One of the trickiest contests for Labour is in Sunderland, where it risks losing control of the council for the first time since it was founded in 1974, says the Guardian’s North Of England correspondent Josh Halliday.
Labour has a majority of only six councillors on the 75-seat authority, meaning it could easily fall into no overall control when ballots are counted.
There are enough clues on the doorstep and judging by the scale of the postal vote, that’s gone extremely well and we’re getting a big turnout. That said, neither party can be overly confident about which way many seats will go.
Partygate doesn’t come up as much as you’d think and for those who have brought it up they’ve said things like ‘You’re all as bad as each other’ or ‘that’s politics’.
Continue reading...As the final votes are counted, heavy Conservative losses are tempered by a mixed picture for Labour while Lib Dems and the Greens perform well. The SNP continues to dominate in Scotland and Plaid Cymru gain seats in their heartlands and beyond
Local elections: live coverage
Northern Ireland election: live results
On 5 May all councils in Scotland and Wales held elections for all of their councillors. In England, the picture is more complex. Many parts of England held no election at all. Others held elections for a third of seats as part of a four-yearly cycle in which a third of lower-tier seats are elected each year, with the upper-tier being chosen in the fourth year. In other areas there is a “unitary” council, being elected in its entirety.
Continue reading...Labour and Lib Dem sources say turnout appears to be low in possible sign of Tory voters staying away
The Conservatives are braced for a nerve-shredding 24 hours after voting closed in local elections across the UK, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats expecting to make gains.
Taking place against the backdrop of the cost of living crisis, the first nationwide polls since Partygate will be widely read as a test of whether Boris Johnson has become an electoral liability.
Continue reading...The prime minister fails to feature on a number of Tory flyers for the 5 May polls, but his opponents are putting him front and centre
After his ratings plunged in the wake of “partygate” and as his government faces demands to act over the cost of living, it may be a surprise to discover that Boris Johnson’s face can be found on leaflets for the forthcoming local elections. Unfortunately for the prime minister, it is not his own party’s literature that features his image.
The Observer has seen Conservative leaflets circulated in London, the Midlands and the north of England in recent weeks. None of them shows Johnson, once regarded as the Tory politician able to reach voters that no one else in his party could.
Continue reading...Labour and Lib Dems call for full transparency as it emerges Sue Gray’s report may just summarise findings
Boris Johnson is facing calls to ensure all evidence on the Downing Street parties is published with the Sue Gray inquiry, as it emerged the pivotal report is likely to amount to a concise summary of findings.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats called on Friday for the report to be published along with its accompanying evidence – including emails and witness accounts – to give full transparency around more than 15 alleged parties under investigation by Gray, a senior civil servant.
Continue reading...Last week’s byelection result laid bare the growing anger felt towards the PM – both from outside and within his own party
Shortly after Owen Paterson resigned as the Tory MP for North Shropshire in early November, Helen Morgan, who had been trounced when she stood as Liberal Democrat candidate at the last general election, rang her party’s HQ in London with a message that took senior officials by surprise.
“She told us that we really had a chance in the byelection, that we had to throw everything at it. Initially there was a lot of scepticism,” said a party official. “Nobody really believed it.”
Continue reading...Helen Morgan wins a stunning victory for the Lib Dems in a byelection called after environment secretary Owen Paterson resigned
The Liberal Democrats have won a stunning victory in the North Shropshire byelection, taking what had previously been a safe Conservative seat by nearly 6,000 votes, capping a disastrous few weeks for Boris Johnson.
Helen Morgan, the Lib Dem candidate, took 17,957 votes, ahead of the Conservatives’ Neil Shastri-Hurst, on 12,032, a majority of 5,925. Labour’s Ben Wood was third, with 3,686 votes.
Continue reading...Poll reveals huge public cynicism, with just 5% of respondents believing politicians work for public good
Trust in politicians to act in the national interest rather than for themselves has fallen dramatically since Boris Johnson became prime minister, according to figures contained in a disturbing new study into the state of British democracy.
The polling data from YouGov for the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) shows a particularly sharp fall in trust in the few weeks since the Owen Paterson scandal triggered a rash of Tory sleaze scandals.
Continue reading...Bereaved families, Labour and Lib Dems all condemn health secretary, accusing him of insensitivity
Sajid Javid has provoked a wave of anger from families of the victims of Covid after he said people must no longer “cower” from the virus.
The health secretary announced on Saturday that he had made a “full recovery” from Covid-19 after falling ill eight days ago, and said: “Please, if you haven’t yet, get your jab, as we learn to live with, rather than cower from, this virus.”
Continue reading...Former Speaker says party has become reactionary and xenophobic under its current leadership
• The blue wall: what next for the Tories after shock defeat?
John Bercow, the former Tory MP and Speaker of the House of Commons, has delivered an extraordinary broadside against Boris Johnson and the Conservative party as he announces he has switched his political allegiance to Labour.
In an explosive interview with the Observer, Bercow says he regards today’s Conservative party as “reactionary, populist, nationalistic and sometimes even xenophobic”.
Continue reading...Sarah Green takes formerly safe Buckinghamshire seat despite senior Tories’ canvassing
The Liberal Democrats have pulled off an extraordinary victory in the Buckinghamshire constituency of Chesham and Amersham, taking the formerly safe seat from the Tories in a byelection.
In a shock result, Lib Dem Sarah Green secured 21,517 votes, leaving the Conservative Peter Fleet trailing with 13,489, and giving the Lib Dems a majority of 8,028.
Continue reading...All the latest news and results as counts continue in England and Scotland after Thursday’s elections
Scotland’s first list results are out, with Central Scotland declaring the following:
First list declaration out - for Central Scotland, it's Leonard (Lab) Kerr (Con), Lennon (Lab), Simpson (Con), Griffin (Lab), Gallacher (Con), Mackay (Green). So three Labour, three Tory, and one Green.
Asked whether it was realistic to have a referendum in the first half of parliament, Nicola Sturgeon said that while getting through the pandemic has to come first, it looks as though it is “beyond any doubt that there will be a pro-independence majority in Scottish parliament”.
She told BBC News: “By any normal standard of democracy that majority should have the commitments it made to the people honoured.
Continue reading...Chinese newspaper said countries that boycott 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics over treatment of Uighurs would face retaliation
The Liberal Democrats have warned China against “international bullying” after a call by UK MPs for countries to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics was met by a warning of potential sanctions.
Last week, Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, joined with the Labour MP and former Foreign Office minister Chris Bryant in demanding that the government and the British Olympic Association act over the mass repression of the Muslim Uighur population in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, which campaigners say constitutes genocide.
Continue reading...Results suggest public are deeply unhappy with the government’s handling of Covid and Brexit
The public are deeply unhappy with the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the Brexit negotiations, a damning new poll suggests.
The poll predicts that if a general election were held tomorrow neither the Conservatives nor Labour would win an outright majority. Disturbingly for Boris Johnson, the survey says the Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority they won in December 2019.
Continue reading...