Lib Dems hopeful of more election gains if Tory drift to right continues

Officials predict further gains if next Conservative leader focuses on winning back voters from Reform UK

The Liberal Democrats could take dozens more seats from the Conservatives at the next general election if the Tories select a leader who keeps pushing them to the right, Lib Dem officials believe.

The prediction came as Ed Davey prepared to attack the Conservatives in his leader’s speech to the Lib Dem conference, saying he wants his party to supplant them at “the top table of our politics”.

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Suella Braverman criticised by Labour over ‘deeply divisive’ migration speech – as it happened

Home secretary argued that ‘uncontrolled’ migration poses ‘existential challenge for institutions of the west’

The Sun is carrying a story today saying Rishi Sunak’s “decision to stall the net zero ban on selling new petrol cars has seen him catch up eight points in the polls”. It is based on the results of this Deltapoll poll.

For a more considered view, it is worth reading this article in the i by Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading psephologist. He says the impact of the net zero speech on the polls has been much more modest. Here is his conclusion.

Whatever the popularity of the measures, if, as has been alleged, Mr Sunak’s motivation was to try to reduce Labour’s lead, it looks as though he has so far reaped little reward. Four polls of voting intention conducted after last Wednesday’s announcement have so far been published. Between them they put Labour’s lead on 17 points – just a point below the polling average shortly before last week’s drama.

Moving the polls is, it seems, just as difficult as dealing with climate change.

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HS2 may end up as ‘total waste of money’, warns IFS thinktank – UK politics live

Comments from Paul Johnson of Institute of Fiscal Studies come as Downing Street hints at delay to work on second phase of rail link

Around 20,000 university workers are out on strike this week at more than 50 universities across the UK, despite a dramatic last-minute scaling back of industrial action.

Strikes had been set to go ahead at 142 UK universities this week as part of a long-running dispute over pay and working conditions, but it emerged last week that two thirds of branches of the University and College Union (UCU) had declined to take part.

Davey said the Lib Dem commitment – dating back to 1992 – to raise income tax by 1p to improve public services is unsustainable in the current economic climate. Originally the money raised was earmarked for education, but at the last election the party said it would use it to fund the NHS.

Speaking from Bournemouth to broadcast studios, Davey suggested the burden should instead fall on companies making “huge profits” while people struggle with the cost of living.

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Shapps says ‘outside reality’ not to reconsider HS2 as Labour says it cannot make decision without more information – UK politics live

Grant Shapps says Rishi Sunak ‘prepared to take difficult long-term decision’ when asked about future of HS2 rail project

In Manchester, the first buses to be brought back into public control in England since deregulation in the 1980s have begun their first services.

Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said the Labour party “would love to see HS2 being built in full” but that it was “not going to make decisions about national interest projects that involve tens of billions of pounds without all of the information being available”.

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Lib Dems would double shared parental pay and increase leave

Munira Wilson told party’s conference many men could not afford to spend time with their babies

The Liberal Democrats have said they would double statutory shared parental pay (ShPP) and extend the amount of leave new parents can take if the party form the next government.

Speaking at the party’s autumn conference in Bournemouth, education spokesperson, Munira Wilson, said not enough men were taking leave, while many “simply can’t afford” to spend time with their babies.

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No kicks, coughs or slip-ups as party conferences go online

Attendees of this year’s virtual gatherings may be spared any gaffes, but at what cost?

Utter the phrase “conference season” to a Westminster veteran and don’t be surprised if their initial reaction is a shudder. For regular attendees of the annual party gatherings, which kick off next weekend, they raise the prospect of lengthy policy sermons and curled cheese sandwiches by day, followed by sweaty bars and third-hand gossip by night.

Related: Keir Starmer's conference challenge is to avoid the shadow of past leaders | Zoe Williams

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