Why are wholesale gas prices falling and will it cut UK bills?

Falls could lower cost of government subsidies and reduce risk of power cuts this winter

Economic forecasters could be forgiven for reading the outlook for 2023 through their fingers as strikes, cost of living pressures and a potential global recession paint a gloomy picture. But wholesale gas prices have offered a sliver of optimism, with a sharp fall in recent days. Here’s why they are tumbling – and what it means for consumers.

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European gas prices fall to pre-Ukraine war level

Milder winter, alternative imports and energy reduction cuts demand after Russian invasion pushed up prices

European gas prices have dipped to a level last seen before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, after warmer weather across the continent eased concerns over shortages.

The month-ahead European gas future contract dropped as low as €76.78 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, the lowest level in 10 months, before closing higher at €83.70, according to Refinitiv, a data company.

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EU energy ministers reach agreement on gas price cap

Months of talks end with ‘dynamic cap’ deal after Germany persuaded by global reference-price condition

EU ministers have agreed a plan to cap the price of gas, ending months of argument over how to handle the cost of soaring energy prices after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe.

“Mission accomplished,” said the Czech minister for trade and industry, Jozef Síkela, who chaired talks between energy ministers, adding that negotiations had not been easy.

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Australia’s coal exporters made windfall gain of $45bn last year, report estimates

Report by Australia Institute finds a windfall profits tax could collect almost all this money for public use

Coal exporters from Australia reaped as much as $45bn in windfall gain in the 2021-22 year, with a similar bonanza likely this year, offering governments a budgetary boon for those willing to grasp it, the Australia Institute has said.

In a report released on Thursday, the institute’s economists said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent disruption to energy markets alone had delivered between $13bn and $23bn of gains to coalminers. All up, those gains totalled between $39bn and $45bn.

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Gas industry attempts to block price caps on fossil fuels shrugged off by Australian government

Crossbenchers express surprise at lack of direct lobbying from resource companies who may have been blindsided by ‘reasonable pricing’ test

Gas industry concerns that price caps on fossil fuels will damage investment and supply have been shrugged off by the majority of parliament, with lobbying efforts from fossil fuel companies unsuccessful in scuppering Labor’s plans.

Despite weeks of strong public criticism from coal and gas companies about the proposed price caps and increasingly apocalyptic claims of energy disasters if skyrocketing profits were reined in, the parliament will pass the government’s proposal on Thursday.

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Germany at risk of gas shortages as consumption cutting target missed

Country has scrambled to open up new sources of energy since start of Ukraine war

Germany is saving less gas than necessary to rule out shortages this winter, the head of the German grid agency has said, as the country missed its crucial target of a 20% cut in consumption last week amid dropping temperatures.

Germany, which used to draw about half of its natural gas needs from Russia before the start of the Ukraine war, has scrambled to open up new sources of energy during the last ten months.

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Energy users and ex-ACCC boss praise government for staring down ‘bullies of the gas industry’

Industry argues capping gas at $12 a gigajoule risks future investment but experts say price is top end of range forecast before invasion of Ukraine

Energy users and the former boss of the competition watchdog have congratulated the Albanese government for staring down the “bullies of the gas industry” in a bid to lower domestic energy bills.

The federal government last week announced an energy relief plan that would cap coal and gas prices and deliver $1.5bn in assistance to struggling lower-income Australians.

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Qatar’s gas output increase could cause catastrophic global heating, report says

If Qatar exploits all its reserves it will add 50bn metric tons of CO2 to atmosphere, more than entire annual emissions of whole world

Qatar’s longest lasting legacy following the World Cup won’t be football or even its human rights record – it will be the climate crisis, according to a new report warning that its huge expansion of gas extraction could push the planet into catastrophic global heating.

Should Qatar exploit all of its oil and gas reserves it will eventually add an enormous 50bn metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere once burned, which is more than the entire annual emissions of the whole world, the new research, shared with the Guardian, has found.

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Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak agree to increase gas exports from US to UK

Leaders announce partnership to reduce global dependence on Russian energy

Joe Biden has agreed a deal to ramp up gas exports from the US to the UK as part of a joint effort to cut bills and limit Russia’s impact on western energy supplies.

Sunak and Biden announced an “energy security and affordability partnership” and set up a joint action group, led by Westminster and White House officials, with the aim of reducing global dependence on Russian energy.

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Germany agrees 15-year liquid gas supply deal with Qatar

Racing to wean itself off Russian gas supplies, Germany is set to buy 2m tonnes of liquid gas from Gulf state

German firms have signed a 15-year deal to buy 2m tonnes of liquid gas from Qatar, sending out mixed signals over the priority Germany places on human rights in the Gulf and its commitment to a carbon neutral energy supply.

The deal was announced by state-owned Qatar Energy and deliveries will start from 2026. The gas will be sold by Qatar to the US company ConocoPhillips, which will then deliver it to the LNG terminal in Brunsbüttel, Qatar’s energy minister said in the capital, Doha.

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Annual UK energy bills would have hit £4,279 without emergency support, Ofgem says

Regulator raises cap for start of 2023 by £730 but government limits typical bill to £3,000 from April

The energy regulator Ofgem has said its price cap will reach £4,279 from January – but households will be shielded by the government’s emergency intervention to keep a lid on bills.

Ofgem said the cap, which is adjusted every quarter, will increase by £730 for the three months from the start of next year. However, the government’s energy price guarantee (EPG) will limit typical household bills to £2,500. Analysts had expected the cap to sit at about £4,200.

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Russian oligarchs and companies under sanctions are among lobbyists at Cop27

The heavy presence of lobbyists from Moscow suggests Russia is using the climate talks to drum up business

Russian oligarchs and executives from multiple companies under international sanctions are among the lobbyists currently attending Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Among those at the pivotal climate talks are the billionaire and former aluminium magnate Oleg Deripaska, who is under UK sanctions, and the billionaire Andrey Melnichenko, the former head of the Russian fertiliser company the EuroChem group, who has been targeted with individual sanctions by the European Union which he disputed, calling them “absurd and nonsensical”.

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Germany keen to discuss natural gas pact with UK amid supply risk

Officials interested in deal that would allow two countries to bail each other out in event of shortages

Germany is keen to talk to Britain about a solidarity pact that would allow Europe’s largest consumers of natural gas to bail each other out if an extreme cold snap were to create shortages this winter, German officials have said.

Such an agreement could be mutually beneficial for both London and Berlin, the German civil servant in charge of rationing in the case of a supply crisis told the Guardian in an interview.

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Thousands left without natural gas in Lithgow and Bathurst amid cold snap

Recent flooding is believed to have caused the pipeline outage in central-west NSW and is hampering repair

It could take weeks to completely fix a pipeline outage that has left more than 20,000 New South Wales residents without natural gas during an unseasonal cold snap, with recent flooding believed to have caused the outage as well as hampering its repair.

Residents in the central-west towns of Bathurst, Lithgow and Wallerawang woke up on Thursday to find their homes without natural gas, a day after snow fell in the region and a temperature of 1C was recorded in Lithgow. The towns of Portland and Oberon are also affected.

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Tanya Plibersek to reassess 18 proposed oil and gas projects to consider their climate change impact

Queensland environment group had asked federal minister to revisit decisions made going back to 2011

Federal environment officials have agreed to look again at 18 proposed new coal and gas projects after a Queensland environment group submitted requests to have the effects of climate change considered.

None of the 18 projects has been approved under the country’s environment law, but have been through a process where the environment minister determines the nature and scale of their likely impacts.

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West accused of double standards over oil and gas exploration in DRC

Calls by countries such as UK and US to halt auction for drilling permits in the world’s second-largest rainforest branded ‘galling’

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has criticised the west for pressuring it to halt oil and gas exploration in the Congo basin rainforest, while continuing to search for fossil fuels in their own countries.

The Congo basin, more than half of which is located in DRC, is the last rainforest on Earth that sucks in more carbon than it releases and is second only to the Amazon in size. The DRC announced in July that oil and gas permits in parts of the rainforest would be auctioned off. The blocks up for sale include areas in Virunga national park, as well as critically endangered gorilla habitats and the world’s largest tropical peatlands, which store the equivalent of three years of the world’s fossil fuel emissions.

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Rishi Sunak will keep ban on fracking in UK, No 10 confirms

PM said he stood by Tories’ 2019 manifesto policy when asked in Commons, in rebuff to Liz Truss

Fracking will in effect remain banned under Rishi Sunak’s government, his spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday, saying the new prime minister was committed to the policy in the 2019 manifesto.

The confirmation came after the prime minister told the Commons that he “stands by” the manifesto, which put a moratorium on shale gas extraction.

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Peak power: hydrogen to be injected into UK station for first time

Exclusive: Joint venture with Centrica is aimed ultimately at reducing carbon intensity at the site

Hydrogen will be injected into an emergency gas-fired power station for the first time in a pilot backed by the owner of British Gas.

Centrica has invested in an industry joint venture which will trial using hydrogen at an existing “peaking plant” at its Brigg station in Lincolnshire, the Guardian can reveal.

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After eight rounds, is there space for further EU sanctions on Russia?

Baltic states and Poland have a long shopping list, but host of others seen as cautious of new measures

Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

Since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been subjected to the heaviest sanctions of any country in the world.

A fossil fuel superpower, Russia is no longer able to export coal to the European Union and will soon lose 90% of its oil sales to the bloc. In the other direction, the EU has banned the export of hundreds of goods to Russia, from hi-tech military kit and semiconductors that could aid Russia’s military, to makeup, handbags and clothes that may turn a handsome profit for Russian entrepreneurs.

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Tory MPs mull backing Labour attempt to force binding fracking vote

Opposition motion drafted to make it very difficult for government to ignore or allow mass abstentions

Labour will attempt to force a binding vote on fracking on Wednesday, as Tory MPs mull backing a bid which would allow the opposition to put down a bill banning shale gas extraction.

The motion submitted by Labour for its opposition day debate is drafted to make it very difficult for the government to ignore the vote or allow mass abstentions.

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