Category Archives: Science

Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

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Caution is sensible when so much is unknown

The race is on to understand the new variant identified by scientists in South Africa and Botswana, dubbed Omicron (the next Greek letter was “nu”, but this could have been mistaken for “new”). Fears include greater spread, worse disease or reduced effectiveness of treatments and vaccines.

Increased transmission can arise from two factors. First, there is an intrinsic advantage, with a heightened “basic reproduction number” R0; in a susceptible population, that is the average number of people each case infects, although after 20 months of pandemic this has become a notional concept. It was around 3 for the original wild-type virus, compared to around 6 for Delta and possibly rather more for Omicron.

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Scott Morrison repeats that Australians have ‘had a gutful of governments in their lives’; Peter Cundall dies at 94 – As it happened

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Gardening legend Peter Cundall dies aged 94 as PM repeats that Australians have had a ‘gutful of governments in their lives’. This blog is now closed

Hunt is asked whether states, like Queensland, will hold off opening state borders until at least 80% of kids aged five to 11 are vaccinated given today’s announcement.

Hunt:

There is no reason for that. The Doherty modelling was set out very clearly on the 80% rates for double dosed across the country for 16 plus, and what we have seen now is that in terms of the 12 to 15-year-olds, we have now had an extra 1.8 million vaccinations over and above the Doherty modelling. The Doherty modelling was based on an 80% national rate for double dosed and didn’t include 12 to 15-year-olds.

A bit over a fifth of all cases of Covid are actually in the under 12s. Indeed, some of the early data with Omicron suggests it may actually be higher for the Omicron variant ... While most kids to get fairly mild infection and only a limited number end up in ICU, is great, there are bigger impacts.

Unfortunately about one in 3,000 of the kids who get Covid actually end up with this funny immunological condition called multi-system inflammatory condition. Those kids can end up being very sick for months. It is not the same as long Covid but it has some things in common, and it has a whole range of symptoms where the kid is just not well. That is one of the things we are protecting against by vaccinating children...

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Omicron: what do we know about the new Covid variant?

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Scientists are racing to establish the variant’s transmissibility, effect on immune system and chance of hospitalisation or death

Three major issues will determine the magnitude of the impact of the new Omicron variant of the Covid virus will have on the nation and the rest of the planet. What is the transmissibility of this new Covid variant? How good is it at evading the antibodies and T-cells that make up a person’s immune defences? What are the chances it will trigger severe illness that could lead to the hospitalisation, and possibly death, of an infected person.

Scientists are struggling to find definitive answers to these critically important questions, although evidence already suggests Omicron has the potential to cause serious disruption. “The situation is very finely tuned and could go in many different directions,” says Prof Rowland Kao of Edinburgh University.

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Covid antiviral pill molnupiravir/Lagevrio set for UK at-home trials

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People most vulnerable to Omicron would reportedly be offered experimental pill within 48 hours of testing positive

The first at-home treatment for Covid-19 could reportedly be offered to UK patients before Christmas as an attempt to protect the most vulnerable from the Omicron variant.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that Sajid Javid is set to launch a national pilot of the Molnupiravir antiviral pill, marketed as Lagevrio.

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UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

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Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

The emergence of the Omicron variant shows that the world is “closer to the start of the pandemic than the end”, one of Britain’s most senior scientific figures has warned, as he lamented a lack of political leadership over Covid.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust who stepped down as a government scientific adviser last month, said the progress in combatting Covid-19 since its emergence was “being squandered”.

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Omicron proves we’re not in control of Covid – only global action can stop this pandemic

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If we keep allowing this virus to spread through unvaccinated populations, the next variant could be even more deadly

It’s almost two years since we first heard of Covid-19, and a year since the first Covid vaccines were rolled out. Yet this staggering progress is being squandered. We have drifted for months now, with richer countries, taking a very blinkered domestic focus, lulled into thinking that the worst of the pandemic was behind us. This variant reminds us all that we remain closer to the start of the pandemic than the end.

There is a lot we need to learn about the Omicron variant. Whether or not this is a pandemic-changing variant – one that really evades our vaccines and treatments – remains to be seen. Research will tell us more in the coming days and weeks, and we must watch and follow the data closely while giving the brilliant scientific teams time to get the answers. Although I am very worried about countries with limited access to vaccines, I am cautiously hopeful that our current vaccines will continue to protect us against severe sickness and death, if we are fully vaccinated.

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Omicron cases climb amid Sydney cluster; Qld to quarantine Adelaide travellers – as it happened

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South Australia announces rule changes for interstate arrivals as ACT records first case of variant. This blog is now closed

Just noting we are still waiting on the SA press conference to begin.

There’s a press conference with the South Australian premier, Steven Marshall, and CHO Nicola Spurrier at 9.45am SA time (so roughly half an hour from now).

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Does the Omicron variant mean Covid is going to become more transmissible?

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As new strain dampens idea pandemic might be diminishing, what does the future hold for coronavirus?

When scientists predicted, months ago, that Covid-19 could be entering an endemic phase, many felt ready for the crisis period of the pandemic to be over. The tantalising suggestion that coronavirus might, at some foreseeable point, be just another seasonal cold felt welcome. But the emergence of the Omicron variant, just weeks before Christmas, shows this is not guaranteed to be a smooth or quick transition.

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Covid booster shots significantly strengthen immunity, trial finds

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Jabs offer far higher protection than that needed to prevent hospitalisation and death, Cov-Boost trial lead says

Covid booster shots can dramatically strengthen the body’s immune defences, according to a study that raises hopes of preventing another wave of severe disease driven by the Omicron variant.

In a study published in the Lancet, researchers on the UK-based Cov-Boost trial measured immune responses in nearly 3,000 people who received one of seven Covid-19 boosters or a control jab two to three months after their second dose of either AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine.

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How probable is it Omicron Covid variant will take hold in UK?

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Analysis: UK’s early vaccine deployment and use of different vaccines from South Africa mean it’s too soon to say

Omicron is causing consternation around the world, with the variant found to be behind an exponential rise in Covid cases in South Africa. Yet with just 42 cases confirmed in the UK so far, and most European countries seeing numbers in the double rather than triple figures, could this be a tentative sign the variant may fail to take hold outside southern Africa? The bottom line is, it is too soon to say.

One issue is that there are important differences that make it difficult to compare the situations in South Africa and beyond.

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Covid: scientists find possible trigger for AstraZeneca jab blood clots

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Experts hope better understanding of rare side effect of vaccine could help ‘turn the tide’ on pandemic

Scientists believe they may have found the trigger behind the extremely rare blood clot complications stemming from the Oxford/AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine.

According to a team of researchers from Cardiff and the US, the reaction can be traced to the way the adenovirus used by the vaccine to shuttle the coronavirus’s genetic material into cells binds with a specific protein in the blood, known as platelet factor 4 (PF4).

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Covid limits migration despite more people displaced by war and disasters

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IOM report finds 9m more people displaced globally but mobility restricted due to pandemic, with vaccination proving a key factor


The coronavirus pandemic had a radical effect on migration, limiting movement despite increasing levels of internal displacement from conflict and climate disasters, the UN’s International Organization for Migration said in a report on Wednesday.

Though the number of people who migrated internationally increased to 281 million in 2020 – 9 million more than before Covid-19 – the number was 2 million lower than expected without a pandemic, according to the report.

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Covid-19 variants may not evolve to be less dangerous, says Neil Ferguson

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Senior UK scientist says extent of threat posed by Omicron will not be clear until end of year

People should not assume that Covid will evolve to become a milder disease, a senior scientist has warned, adding that the threat posed by the Omicron coronavirus variant will not be clear until the end of December.

Prof Neil Ferguson, head of the disease outbreak analysis and modelling group at Imperial College London, told MPs on Wednesday that while evolution would drive Covid to spread more easily the virus might not become less dangerous.

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When did Omicron Covid variant arrive in UK and is it spreading?

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Analysis: scientists are working full tilt to answer these vital questions that may give clues as to what is to come

As new cases of Omicron continue to emerge in the UK, scientists are working full tilt to answer two vital questions: when did the variant arrive and is it spreading?

While at first glance those queries may seem less important than those around vaccine effectiveness or disease severity, the answers may give important clues as to what is to come.

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Omicron Covid variant ‘present in Europe at least 10 days ago’

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Two cases of new Covid variant found in Netherlands predate last week’s alert from South Africa

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 was present in Europe at least 10 days ago and already appears to be spreading in the Netherlands and elsewhere.

“We have found the Omicron coronavirus variant in two test samples that were taken on November 19 and 23,” the Dutch health ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. “It is not yet clear whether these people had also visited southern Africa,” the ministry added.

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How dangerous is the Omicron variant?

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The Omicron variant of Covid has prompted governments around the world to reintroduce border restrictions, with Australia shutting the border to southern Africa and delaying the reopening date for international students and visa holders. The federal government has called for calm, describing the variant as ‘manageable’, but what do we actually know about it?


Laura Murphy-Oates speaks to medical editor Melissa Davey about what scientists have discovered so far about Omicron and our evolving approach to combating Covid variants

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What does appearance of Omicron variant mean for the double-vaccinated?

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We find out how much protection Covid vaccines may offer amid speculation new variant could be more resistant

The emergence of Omicron has prompted widespread speculation that it may be more resistant to Covid-19 vaccines than existing variants, including Delta. But what does that mean for the average double-vaccinated person?

All the vaccines currently available in the UK work by training the immune system against the coronavirus spike protein – the key it uses to infect cells by binding to the ACE2 receptor. Omicron possesses more than 30 mutations in this protein, including 10 in the so-called “receptor-binding domain” (RBD) – the specific part that latches on to this receptor. Delta has two RBD mutations.

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How bad will the Omicron Covid variant be in Britain? Three things will tell us | Devi Sridhar

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A new variant identified in southern Africa is causing global panic – but its real impact will be shown by the data scientists are racing to establish

Omicron, the name of the new Covid-19 variant that is sending worrying signals from southern Africa, sounds like something from Transformers. It has caused panic across the world, among governments, the public and the stock markets. After adding a number of southern African countries to the red list, the UK government has reimposed mandatory masks in England from Tuesday, and will require anyone travelling to the country from abroad to take a PCR test. Omicron is probably the first variant to have scientists worried since Delta became the predominant strain in every country last summer. But how bad it is? What does it mean for future lockdowns – and future deaths?

Scientists are waiting on three pieces of data before they will be able to tell what effect this new variant will have over the next six to 12 months. The first is how infectious Omicron is. Can it outcompete Delta? Earlier this year we saw another worrying variant, Beta, that luckily faded away as a result of a selective advantage in Delta that allowed it to transmit faster between people. Limited data from South Africa shows that Omicron is very infectious, but whether it will become the predominant strain remains to be seen.

Prof Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh

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Travel firms scramble to rearrange holidays amid new Covid measures

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Swiss skiing holidays in doubt as country joins Spain in tightening travel rules to contain Omicron variant

Tour operators are scrambling to rearrange Swiss skiing holidays after the country joined Spain in tightening travel restrictions amid rising concerns about the spread of the new Omicron Covid variant.

From Saturday night, Switzerland mandated 10 days of quarantine for all new arrivals, in effect wrecking skiing holidays in the Swiss Alps until further notice. Travel firms are also wrestling with Spain’s ban on non-vaccinated arrivals that will affect British holidaymakers from Wednesday 1 December.

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Nobel-winning stock market theory used to help save coral reefs

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Portfolio selection rules on evaluating risk used to pick 50 reefs as ‘arks’ best able to survive climate crisis and revive coral elsewhere

A Nobel prize-winning economic theory used by investors is showing early signs of helping save threatened coral reefs, scientists say.

Researchers at Australia’s University of Queensland used modern portfolio theory (MPT), a mathematical framework developed by the economist Harry Markowitz in the 1950s to help risk-averse investors maximise returns, to identify the 50 reefs or coral sanctuaries around the world that are most likely to survive the climate crisis and be able to repopulate other reefs, if other threats are absent.

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