Johnsonism wins budget battle but will Sunakism win the war?

Analysis: chancellor left with little choice but to go PM’s way, though one passage of his speech was telling

Rishi Sunak may see himself as a future prime minister but this budget confirmed he is very much Boris Johnson’s chancellor.

Rumours about ructions between the pair have gripped Westminster for months. Sunak, who told last year’s Tory conference his party had a moral duty to fix the public finances, was known to be queasy about the government’s national insurance increase, for example.

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Budget 2021: what’s really going on in the UK economy?

Rishi Sunak will be looking at key indicators such as GDP growth, public debt levels and inflation as he draws up his autumn budget

Britain’s economic recovery from Covid is at growing risk from severe shortages of workers and materials, as well as mounting living costs for households, as Rishi Sunak prepares his budget and spending review.

Here are five key charts that will underpin the chancellor’s statement on Wednesday afternoon.

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Rishi Sunak will use budget to declare ‘age of optimism’

Chancellor to strike upbeat tone despite cost-of-living crisis, with spending pledges worth billions

Rishi Sunak will use his budget to insist the UK is entering an economic “age of optimism” despite a looming cost-of-living crisis, after making a deluge of promises to spend billions more on health, transport and skills.

In an attempt to strike an upbeat tone during his second budget on Wednesday, the chancellor will say his aim is to create a “new economy post-Covid”.

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Treasury could raise £16bn a year if shares and property were taxed like salaries

Exclusive analysis of 540,000 wealthiest individuals in the UK shows effects of low capital gains tax

The government could raise an extra £16bn a year if the low tax rates on profits from shares and property were increased and brought back into line with taxes on salaries.

Exclusive analysis of data on the 540,000 wealthiest individuals in the UK – the top 1% – shows how decades of low taxes on capital gains, a type of income mainly available to the wealthiest in society, is creating a new breed of “super-gainers”.

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Labour accuses Sunak of ‘smoke and mirrors’ budget due to lack of new money

Chancellor concedes only 20% of transport funding boost is new and other commitments in £26bn spending plans are recycled

Labour has accused Rishi Sunak of presiding over a “smoke and mirrors” budget after he conceded that just 20% of his biggest single spending commitment unveiled before the speech is made up of new money.

The Treasury has committed to almost £26bn of spending in a rush of announcements before Wednesday’s budget and spending review. It is expected to contain no tax cuts and the chancellor has sought to reassure anxious Tory MPs that he is a fiscal Thatcherite at heart.

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English cities to receive transport boost of almost £7bn in budget

Funding will be used to help ‘level up’ regions including Greater Manchester and West Midlands

Almost £7bn will be allocated in next week’s budget to “level up” urban transport in cities around England, the government has said.

City regions will receive a total of about £5.7bn in sustainable transport cash, while another £1.2bn will go towards improving bus services.

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