Grant Shapps dismisses significance of Tory-backed poll suggesting Labour on course for landslide election win – UK politics live

Defence secretary dismisses poll, saying things will change by time general election takes place

And here is some more comment on the YouGov poll on X from experts and commentators.

From Will Jennings, an academic and psephologist

At last, details of the @YouGov MRP. Bad for the Conservatives (unsurprisingly), but this is curious to say the least: “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”.

These results are actually *way better* for the government than the most recent standard YouGov poll, which would produce a 334 seat Labour majority according to Electoral Calculus. So something quite peculiar is going on...

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Up to 70 Tory rebels could abstain or back amendments to Rwanda bill

Lee Anderson could be one of ‘six Conservatives on the payroll’ ready to support the amendments

Conservative rebels have said as many as 70 MPs could back amendments or abstain from supporting Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda bill, telling the prime minister he will have “nowhere to go” if he does not toughen up the legislation.

A leading figure on the right wing of the party said at least three junior ministers and six Tories on the payroll, including a vice-chair of the party, had already informed the whips they were “sympathetic” to the amendments.

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UK government admits Rwanda has ‘issues with its human rights record’

Assessment comes despite claims by Rishi Sunak that Rwanda is safe when making case for asylum policy

The government has admitted that Rwanda still has “issues with its human rights record” despite claims by Rishi Sunak that it is a safe country.

Documents released on Thursday said that “while Rwanda is now a relatively peaceful country with respect for the rule of law, there are nevertheless issues with its human rights record around political opposition to the current regime, dissent and free speech”.

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Labour to table vote calling for release of Rwanda deportation plan documents

Party to ask for details of individual relocation costs and any payments to the Rwandan government

Labour will table a vote in parliament on Tuesday calling for the release of documents relating to the UK government’s Rwanda deportation policy amid claims from Conservative centrists that Rishi Sunak has promised to uphold international treaties.

The vote, which will be part of a humble address on the opposition day debate in the Commons, will ask for any documents that show the cost of relocating each individual asylum seeker to Rwanda as well as a list of all payments made or scheduled to be made to Rwanda’s government.

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Post Office minister set to update MPs on Horizon scandal compensation and convictions – UK politics live

Business minister Kevin Hollinrake to give statement on Horizon scandal and what the government plans to do

James Chapman, a former political editor of the Daily Mail who worked as special adviser for David Davis when he was Brexit secretary for about a year until he left convinced that Brexit was a terrible mistake, says he does not think the “back to square one” line really works as an attack line against Labour.

The trouble with Sunak’s latest slogan is that I suspect a large number of voters think Britain is so broken under the Tories that “going back to square one” sounds like a wholly positive idea

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Rwanda bill will ‘get the job done’ and stop small boat crossings, says David Cameron

Foreign secretary also said Iran was a ‘thoroughly malign’ geopolitical influence

A failure to tackle the issue of small boat crossings in the English Channel would be destructive to people’s faith in politicians and government, David Cameron has claimed.

In comments aimed at rebellious Tory backbenchers unhappy with Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation, Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, said it was the “best bill to get the job done”.

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France jails former doctor for 24 years over role in 1994 Rwanda genocide

Sosthene Munyemana is sixth person to be tried and convicted in France over involvement in slaughter of Tutsi minority

Former Rwandan doctor Sosthene Munyemana has been jailed for 24 years by a French court for his involvement in the 1994 genocide of Tutsis.

The 68-year-old former gynaecologist was on Wednesday found guilty of genocide, crimes against humanity and participation in a conspiracy to prepare these crimes.

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Rwandan politician who criticised Sunak’s bill fears for her safety

Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza has received threats after saying Rwanda was not a safe place to send refugees

A Rwandan opposition politician who publicly criticised the UK’s deportation deal this week fears for her safety after a presidential adviser condemned her for “waging war on her compatriots”.

Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, who wrote a column in the Guardian on Tuesday questioning her country’s treatment of refugees, said she has become concerned about the fallout from the criticism after the aide, an ally of Paul Kagame, wrote she was “maligning Rwanda” in international media.

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Scott Benton faces Commons suspension over lobbying to give Tories potential byelection headache – UK politics live

Commons standards committee recommends 35-day suspension for Scott Benton, who had Conservative whip suspended in April

Rishi Sunak has said that he is open to considering ways in which his Rwanda bill can be “improved”.

With Conservative rightwingers and centrists both wanting to amend the bill, in opposite directions, when it returns to the Commons in the new year, Sunak signalled that the government would be open to accepting some changes.

I’ve been very consistently clear, as have all ministers, if there are ways that the legislation can be improved, to be made even more effective — with a respectable legal argument and maintaining the participation of the Rwandans in the scheme — of course we would be open to that, who wouldn’t be?

This is a damning report from the cross-party standards committee, clearly concluding that Scott Benton seriously breached parliamentary rules in flaunting his position as a parliamentarian in exchange for remuneration.

This is not an isolated case, but comes off the back of a wave of Tory sleaze and scandal.

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Rwanda bill ‘pushing at edge of the envelope’ but ‘within framework of international law’ says home secretary – UK politics live

James Cleverly says deportation bill contains ‘novel measures’ as MPs debate it

Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, a former lord chief justice of England and Wales, has said the government should not try to ignore the jurisdiction of the European court of human rights. In an interview for a podcast called the Judges, he said:

If you have subjected yourself to a court, and it was our voluntary decision to do so, then you have to take the rough with the smooth and if they’ve decided [the court] have this jurisdiction then you ought to follow it.

You can’t expect others to respect the law if you say you won’t respect the law of someone else.

You ought to actually be able, within a set period of time, say a fortnight, to investigate, decide, give him one right of appeal – why you should have more than one right of appeal I simply don’t understand – and remove them.” But, he concedes, it costs money.

Britain is a practical nation – always has been. People can’t afford Christmas. If they call an ambulance this winter – they don’t know if it will come. 6,000 crimes go unpunished - every day. Common sense is rolling your sleeves up and solving these problems practically, not indulging in some kind of political performance art.

This goes for stopping the boats as well. It’s not about wave machines, or armoured jet skis, or schemes like Rwanda you know will never work.

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Why the outcome of the Rwanda bill matters for Sunak – and the Conservatives

Defeat for flagship immigration plan in the Commons would present serious legal and political problems for the PM

A revolt by 29 Conservative MPs could be enough to defeat the government’s Rwanda bill at its first Commons hurdle – something that has not happened to a piece of government legislation since 1986.

The legislation was designed to overcome concerns raised by the supreme court, which ruled last month that the previous policy for deporting people to Rwanda violated domestic and international law.

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One Nation Tory MPs vow to drop support for Rwanda bill if there are amendments as ERG calls for it to be rewritten – as it happened

Damian Green says government must ‘stick to guns’ but chair of European Research Group calls for bill to be pulled and rewritten

Sunak says the PM had to balance competing interests during Covid.

Only he could do that, because only he saw all the competing arguments made by different cabinet ministers.

Your phone, you said, doesn’t retain, and nor do you have access to, text messages at all relating to the period of the crisis.

In addition, you said although on occasion you use WhatsApp to communicate around meetings and logistics and so on, you generally were only party to WhatsApp groups that were set up to deal with individual circumstances such as arrangements for calls, meetings and so on and so forth. You don’t now have access to any of the WhatsApps that you did send during the time of the crisis, do you?

I’ve changed my phone multiple times over the past few years and, as that has happened, the messages have not come across.

As you said, I’m not a prolific user of WhatsApp in the first instance – primarily communication with my private office and obviously anything that was of significance through those conversations or exchanges would have been recorded officially by my civil servants as one would expect.

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Tories warn Rishi Sunak that his Rwanda plan ‘will never be law’

As Tuesday’s crucial vote looms, MPs from both wings of the party say PM has tied his future to a bill that cannot succeed

• Read more: The UK’s deal with Rwanda must stay within the rule of law

Senior Tories from across the party are warning that Rishi Sunak’s emergency Rwanda plan will never become law in its current form, ahead of the most critical vote of his premiership.

Liberal Tories confirmed last night that, despite their desire to back the PM against the right, “serious concerns” remain about the plan and more reassurances will be required. Meanwhile, a self-styled “star chamber” of legal figures examining the proposals for the Tory right is understood to have found problems that are “extremely difficult to resolve”.

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Row brews between Home Office and Foreign Office on eve of UN refugee summit

Furore over the controversial Rwanda scheme labelled far from ‘helpful’ as Britain seeks to fulfil role in the international forum

Tensions between the Home Office and Foreign Office are said to be “strained” before the largest international gathering in years on the refugee crisis, with the UK’s contribution overshadowed by the row over Rwanda.

Headed by development minister Andrew Mitchell, the UK delegation at this week’s UN Global Refugee Forum will unveil what it describes as an “ambitious package” that includes delivering schooling to hundreds of thousands of refugee children.

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Tory right deliver legal rebuke to Sunak’s Rwanda plan

ERG lawyers conclude plans will not forestall court challenges, echoing concerns of goverment’s own legal team

Rishi Sunak has been dealt a fresh blow over his Rwanda legislation as a legal assessment for the Tory right has concluded that the prime minister’s plans are not fit for purpose.

Bill Cash, who chairs the “star chamber” of lawyers for the European Research Group, wrote in the Daily Telegraph that “at present” the legislation is not “sufficiently watertight to meet the government’s policy objectives” such as circumventing individual legal challenges by people seeking to remain in the UK.

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Home Office ordered to give full cost of Rwanda deportation plan

Top civil servant summoned to give ‘full and frank’ answers after costs of scheme rose from £140m to £290m

The Home Office has been ordered to disclose the full costs of Rishi Sunak’s secretive deal to deport migrants to Rwanda, as insiders told of turmoil within the department over the controversial policy.

Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary of the Home Office, will be hauled before the public accounts committee on Monday, after the initial costs of the scheme rose from £140m to £290m.

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‘Cloak and dagger tactics’: Tories paid Rwanda an extra £100m for asylum deal

Ministers criticised after civil servant tells MPs payment was made in April after £140m had already been sent

UK ministers have been accused of using “cloak and dagger” tactics after a leading civil servant revealed in a letter that they had paid Rwanda a further £100m to send asylum seekers there.

Sir Matthew Rycroft, the Home Office’s top civil servant, told MPs the payment was made in April after £140m had already been sent. He added that a further payment of £50m was expected next year.

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Rishi Sunak claims new Rwanda asylum bill will prevent legal challenges

Prime minister holds emergency press conference to try to regain control over immigration debate as Tory rebellion grows

Rishi Sunak was forced into a desperate defence of his new Rwanda asylum law as he battled to hold together the fractured Conservative party amid speculation that he could face a challenge to his position.

The prime minister told an emergency Downing Street press conference that he would “finish the job” of getting his controversial deportation plan off the ground despite criticism from the Tory right and anxiety among centrist MPs.

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Rishi Sunak accused of giving Rwanda millions ‘for nothing in return’

PMQs clash comes as Suella Braverman expected to heavily criticise government’s immigration plans

Rishi Sunak’s government has been accused by Keir Starmer of giving Rwanda “hundreds of millions of pounds for nothing in return” following the signing of a deportation treaty.

In a clash at prime minister’s questions, the Labour leader mocked the treaty, signed on Tuesday, saying the Rwandan government of President Paul Kagame had seen the prime minister coming “a mile off”.

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Wednesday briefing: Inside the Home Office’s new Rwanda plan – and why it might not work

In today’s newsletter: James Cleverly has signed a treaty aimed at fixing its deportation plan, but there are questions whether its safeguards will change the supreme court’s mind

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Good morning. Whoever it was that bequeathed the Conservative government its current dog’s dinner of a policy on immigration and asylum, be in no doubt: the people in charge now are going to do things differently! After setting out draconian new limits on legal migration on Monday, home secretary James Cleverly yesterday turned to irregular migration and the small boats crisis.

In Kigali, he signed a new treaty with the Rwandan government that is supposed to help overcome the supreme court’s recent decision that the existing Rwanda deportation plans are unlawful. Next, the government will proceed with the second part of its plan to fix the Rwanda scheme: legislation that could prevent new court challenges. As he finalises plans that could be published tomorrow, Rishi Sunak must decide whether he wants to infuriate his party’s moderate MPs or those rallying around Suella Braverman on the right.

Israel-Hamas war | The UN’s top aid official has said the Israeli military campaign in southern Gaza has been just as devastating as in the north, creating “apocalyptic” conditions and ending any possibility of meaningful humanitarian operations. Meanwhile, the UN heard accounts of sexual violence during the 7 October attacks by Hamas in a meeting where speakers accused women’s rights activists and UN officials of not doing enough to address the crimes.

Climate | Many of the gravest threats to humanity are drawing closer, as carbon pollution heats the planet to ever more dangerous levels, scientists have warned. Five important natural thresholds already risk being crossed, according to the Global Tipping Points report, and three more may be reached in the 2030s if the world heats 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Nuclear leaks | Sellafield, Europe’s most hazardous nuclear site, has a worsening leak from a huge silo of radioactive waste that could pose a risk to the public, the Guardian revealed. Concerns over safety at the crumbling building have caused diplomatic tensions with countries including the US, Norway and Ireland.

Covid inquiry | The mystery of Boris Johnson’s Covid-era WhatsApp messages has taken another twist before the former prime minister begins his evidence to the inquiry today, after it was reported that nearly six months of messages could not be retrieved. A spokesperson for Johnson blamed a “technical issue”.

NHS | Thousands of junior doctors are to stage new strike action in England after failing to reach a deal with the government in talks over pay. They will walk out for 72 hours from 7am on 20 December, and again for six days from 3 January.

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