Covid mortality down dramatically since start of pandemic

New research shows global death rates among patients in intensive care have fallen from 60% to 36%

Death rates among people who end up in intensive care with Covid-19 have improved dramatically since the start of the pandemic thanks to advances in treatment, new research has found.

The proportion of those worst affected by the disease who die from it has fallen from 60% when it first appeared early last year to 36% by October, the study of global trends shows.

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Lagos traffic creating ‘life or death’ situations for women trying to reach hospital – report

Study of pregnant women travelling to health facilities found journeys took up to four times longer than online maps suggested

The heavy traffic and bad roads of Lagos have been baffling online mapping tools with potential “life and death implications” for people trying to reach the city’s hospitals, research has found.

Researchers looked at cases of pregnant women trying to reach hospital in Nigeria’s most populous city, infamous for its roads, and found they faced a journey of up to four times longer than computers and satellites suggest, which mean the models for access to healthcare facilities are also out of kilter.

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A Bosnian winter: families bid to reach Europe’s heart – in pictures

Through mud and ice, parents and children from Afghanistan and elsewhere attempt the desperate crossing into Croatia. Few make it. Most are reportedly pushed back, time and again, often brutally. The Guardian followed some migrants on their exhausting journeys

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Coronavirus live news: EU tightens rules for foreign visitors; first Covid vaccines arrive in South Africa

South African president hails chance to ‘turn the tide’; EU steps up guidance on non-essential travel from outside bloc; parts of China to suspend religious gatherings

China reported the fewest new coronavirus cases in a month as imported cases overtook local infections, official data showed on Tuesday, suggesting the country’s worst wave since March 2020 is being stamped out ahead of a key holiday.

Reuters: Thirty cases were reported in the mainland on Feb. 1, the National Health Commission said in a statement, down from 42 cases a day earlier and marking lowest total since 24 cases were reported on 2 January.

The commission said 18 of the new cases originated overseas, overtaking locally transmitted cases for the first time in about a month. Out of the 12 local cases, northeastern Heilongjiang province accounted for eight while the neighbouring Jilin province reported the remaining four.

The rainforest city of Manaus in the north-west of Brazil was the first in the country to be struck by the pandemic. The virus rapidly spread, and by October last year it was estimated that 76% of the population had been infected – a number higher than the theoretical threshold for herd immunity. Yet, in January 2021, cases surged and the health system was once again overwhelmed, with hospitals running out of oxygen and doctors and nurses required to carry out manual ventilation.

Related: Covid-19: what can we learn from Manaus? – podcast

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Tokyo Olympics: definitely going ahead unless cancelled again?

Billed as a celebration of humankind’s victory over coronavirus, Games could fall foul of pandemic for a second time

The Olympic rings have been spruced up and are once again overlooking Tokyo Bay. Countdown clocks have been reset, telling passersby there are just 171 days to go until the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games begin.

They are supposed to build excitement in the host city and among sports fans around the world. But Japan’s Olympic dream is quickly turning sour in the face of the worst global health crisis for a century.

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Twitter suspends hundreds of Indian accounts after government demand

Government claimed accounts of news sites, actors and activists sought to foment violence amid farmer protests

Hundreds of Indian Twitter accounts including those belonging to news websites, activists and actors were suspended for more than 12 hours on Monday after the government said users were posting content inciting violence.

The move came in the wake of weeks-long protests by Indian farmers against a new farm bill. The protests turned violent last week when riot police were sent in. One demonstrator was killed and hundreds of people were injured including police officers.

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US tariffs on Scotch whisky ‘have cost £500m in lost exports’

Single malt sales to US have fallen more than third since retaliatory regime was imposed, says industry body

Losses to Scotch whisky exports after tariffs were imposed by the US have reached £500m, according to an industry body.

New figures suggest exports of single malt Scotch whisky have fallen by more than a third – amounting to more than £500m – since a 25% tariff was imposed in October 2019.

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Saved by the Bell actor Dustin Diamond dies aged 44

The actor, who played Screech in the high-school sitcom, had recently been diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer

Actor Dustin Diamond, best known for playing Screech on high school sitcom Saved by the Bell, has died at the age of 44.

Diamond had been diagnosed last month with stage 4 small cell carcinoma, or lung cancer, and been in treatment ever since. His representative Roger Paul confirmed the news of his death.

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Fears army will tighten grip in Myanmar after Aung San Suu Kyi detained

Civilian leader urges the public to protest against any return to a military dictatorship

Myanmar has been placed on knife edge, with activists fearing a further clampdown after the military detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other civilian leaders in early morning raids and took direct control of the country in a coup.

A statement attributed to Aung San Suu Kyi said the military, which directly ruled Myanmar for more than 50 years, was trying to reimpose a dictatorship. “I urge people not to accept this, to respond and wholeheartedly to protest against the coup by the military,” it said. It is not possible to verify the message.

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Zoomed to fail? Cracks appear in Pacific Islands Forum as Covid pulls nations apart

Pacific diplomacy hinges on in-person discussion but web-only meetings have fed a growing dispute over the forum’s leadership and purpose

In the Pacific, it is all about the talanoa: the conversation and the consensus.

For the 50 years of the Pacific Islands Forum (beginning life as the South Pacific Forum), meetings have always happened in person, and it is the power of the leaders being together that has given the forum its rare ability to find common ground.

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Threat of Myanmar coup was never far away

Analysis: Despite her popularity Aung San Suu Kyi never had leverage to curb military’s power

Since her election as Myanmar’s de facto leader in 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi’s position has always been a precarious one. For all the international celebration of Myanmar’s transition to democracy after half a century of military rule, in reality the power of the military barely diminished at all. The threat of a coup, the fallback position of the military for decades, had always lingered.

For the past five years, Aung San Suu Kyi has governed Myanmar on the basis of a 2008 constitution drawn up by the military themselves. It enshrined military power, allowing them to appoint 25% of seats in parliament, and preserve their interests while curbing some of the crucial powers of the democratically elected leader of the government.

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Syria: dozens killed in weekend of violence

At least 24 people killed and scores more injured in series of attacks in rebel-held areas of country

At least 24 people have been killed and scores wounded across parts of rebel-held Syria after a weekend of violence that included several car bomb attacks.

Eleven people died and 30 more were injured in the town of Azaz, when a car bomb detonated on Sunday near a building used by Turkish-backed fighters as an administrative headquarters. Pictures from the scene showed black smoke rising from the mangled remains of the car, damaged buildings and a street covered in debris from the explosion.

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Worker at H&M supply factory was killed after months of harassment, claims family

Fashion brand to investigate the death of 20-year-old Jeyasre Kathiravel, reportedly killed by supervisor at Natchi Apparels

The family of a young garment worker at an H&M supplier factory in Tamil Nadu who was allegedly murdered by her supervisor said she had suffered months of sexual harassment and intimidation on the factory floor in the months before her death, but felt powerless to prevent the abuse from continuing.

H&M said it is launching an independent investigation into the killing of Jeyasre Kathiravel, a 20-year-old Dalit garment worker at an H&M supplier Natchi Apparels in Kaithian Kottai, Tamil Nadu, who was found dead on 5 January in farmland near her home.

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Navalny prosecutors seek three-and-a-half-year jail term

Putin spokesman says Moscow will ignore US pleas for opposition leader to be freed in wake of protests

Russian state prosecutors are poised to jail the opposition leader Alexei Navalny for three-and-a-half years, with the Kremlin shrugging off US complaints about his case on Monday ahead of a crucial court hearing on Tuesday.

Navalny – who was jailed after flying back to Moscow last month – faces the prospect of a lengthy spell behind bars. Vladimir Putin’s press spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow would ignore statements from the Biden administration, following Sunday’s mass pro-Navalny protests.

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Silver price hits eight-year high – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Neil Wilson of Markets.com suggests that large investors may also be driving the silver price rally, rather than it simply being caused by retail traders.

He also warns that such speculation is risky, and usually ends badly for some of those who get caught up:

The fact that such a large and liquid market as silver can be targeted by retail investors says much about the shift we are witnessing, though despite appearances this morning it’s going to a lot harder to squeeze silver shorts as the market is so much deeper and more liquid.

We should also note that some bigger smart money may have be front-running this trade to piggyback the rally and further fuelling the move up. (George Soros: “When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.”)

Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian has tweeted that GameStop and silver are not the same kind of short squeeze trade (as some WallStreetBets posts have also been pointing out).

El-Erian also cautions that the silver squeeze could undermine the squeeze on hedge funds who shorted GameStop’s shares, as the GME trade depends on keeping retail investors on board (rather than selling to the hedge funds).

.#GameStop and #silver are not the same for those pursuing the short squeeze trade
The silver market is much larger;
Existing shorts are smaller;
Some of the #HedgeFunds that are short #GME are said to be long silver
Bottom line: A dissimilar trade that eats away at #GME gains https://t.co/TMfpkr7QDE

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Biden and Harris to meet Republican senators to push for Covid aid package – live

The group of Senate Republicans who will meet with Joe Biden today have proposed their own $600 billion coronavirus relief package.

A package of that size would be about one-third as large as the relief legislation that Biden has proposed.

This is Joan Greve in Washington, taking over for Martin Belam.

Here’s what the blog is keeping an eye on today: The president and the vice-president will meet with a group of Republican senators to discuss a coronavirus relief bill.

Related: Biden promised bold action. Will his efforts to compromise get in the way?

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World needs to kick its coal habit to start green recovery, says IEA head

Energy watchdog’s Fatih Birol says shift away from coal in key regions needs to be made a global priority

Dependency on coal in key parts of the world is preventing a global green recovery from taking off, and the shift away from coal needs to be made a global priority, the head of the world’s energy watchdog has said

Coal still forms a key part of China’s energy system, and plans are in train for further coal-fired power plants in the country. India is also heavily dependent on coal, and despite increasing its renewable energy generation has shown little sign of reducing its use of the fossil fuel.

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Germany considering Russian and Chinese vaccines to boost Covid inoculation drive

Health minister’s comments come before summit on country’s sluggish programme

Germany should use the Russian and Chinese coronavirus vaccines if they win EU approval, the health minister has said, as the French president said Europe must step up its vaccine roll-out and several European countries began easing restrictions.

Speaking ahead of an emergency summit with vaccine manufacturers to tackle the country’s sluggish rollout, Jens Spahn said that if a vaccine “can be considered safe and effective, regardless of what country it has been produced in, then it could help”.

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French minister criticises UK’s ‘risky’ Covid vaccine strategy

Clément Beaune says French would not accept such risks, as he defends EU’s slower progress

Britain has taken “a lot of risks” in its Covid vaccination programme that would be intolerable to the French public, France’s Europe minister, Clément Beaune, has said in defence of the EU’s record on vaccines.

With 14% of the UK adult population having received a first jab, compared with 3% of people across the 27 EU member states, there is growing discontent in the bloc.

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