Kremlin likely to spin ICC arrest warrant as proof west wants to remove Putin

Supporters of the invasion of Ukraine are portraying the court’s decision as a sign of western antagonism to Russia

The international criminal court’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin will probably be portrayed as a point of no return in Russia, where the Kremlin will spin the court’s decision as proof that the west is seeking nothing short of regime change.

While Putin has already been preparing his public for a long war, the arrest warrant will for the first time raise the concrete possibility that Russia’s leaders and other prominent supporters of the war could face justice at The Hague if they ever find themselves under arrest.

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Russia-Ukraine war: Putin’s ‘travel options extremely limited’ after international criminal court warrant – as it happened

Russian president accused of ‘unlawful deportation’ of children ‘from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation’

The state-owned Russian news agency RIA is reporting that Russia’s defence secretary, Sergei Shoigu, has presented state awards to the pilots of the Su-27 planes involved in the drone incident over the Black Sea for “preventing the violation of the borders of the special operation area by the American MQ-9 Reaper drone”.

More details soon …

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Putin’s alleged war crimes: who are the Ukrainian children being taken by Russia?

What we know about the children behind the indictment of Vladimir Putin and his children’s commissioner for abduction

Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

The international criminal court in The Hague has indicted the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and children’s commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, for the mass abduction of Ukrainian children.

This means there is now an international arrest warrant out for Putin, a reflection of the speed with which the international legal community has pursued allegations of war crimes during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Poland to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine in major escalation of military backing

Four Soviet-era MiG-29s to be sent as first instalment and could lead to other Nato members providing warplanes

Poland will become the first country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine in the next few days, marking a significant upward step in military backing for Kyiv ahead of an expected counter-offensive.

The precedent, involving four Soviet-era MiG-29s as a first instalment, could lead to other Nato members providing warplanes, a longstanding Ukrainian request.

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One person dead in FSB centre blast in Rostov-on-Don, Russian agencies say

Footage shows thick black smoke billowing from security service building near eastern Ukraine

At least one person has been killed and two people injured in a blast and fire at a building belonging to Russia’s FSB security service in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, according to officials quoted by Russian news agencies.

Footage captured on Thursday by Reuters showed thick black smoke billowing into the air near residential buildings and a shopping centre in Rostov, the capital of a region that adjoins parts of eastern Ukraine where battles with Russia are raging.

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Russia-Ukraine war: UN says Russia has committed ‘wide range’ of war crimes; Poland to transfer four MIG-29 planes to Ukraine – as it happened

War crimes in Ukraine include wilful killings, systematic torture and deportation of children, says UN report; Polish president says handover to come within days

Suspilne correspondents are reporting that explosions have been heard in Kherson this morning.

Oleh Synyehubov, governor of Kharkiv, reports that the Russian military destroyed and damaged private houses and infrastructure facilities in two settlements in the Kharkiv region overnight. The claim has not been independently verified.

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Russian soldier who confessed to killing Ukrainian civilian jailed over ‘fake news’

Daniil Frolkin handed 5.5-year sentence in move widely seen as attempt to silence other servicemen

A Russian soldier who confessed to killing a civilian in Ukraine last year has been sentenced to five and a half years in prison by a military court in Russia’s far east on charges of spreading “fake news” about the army.

In an interview with the independent news outlet Istories last August, Daniil Frolkin, 21, said he shot and killed a male civilian in Andriivka, a village near Kyiv that was occupied by Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion.

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Russia-Ukraine war: US says drone incident with Russia ‘is being investigated’ – as it happened

US secretary of state Antony Blinken says collision of Russian fighter jet with US drone was ‘reckless and unsafe action’

Thanks for following along – that’s it from me, Helen Sullivan, for today. My colleague Martin Belam will take you through the rest of the day’s news.

AFP has this flash of news, saying Russia has called on the US to halt what it calls its “hostile” flights, after the collision of a Russian fighter jet with a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that the Pentagon said was conducting a routine flight.

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Turkey has made its mind up about our Nato membership, says Finland

Swedish prime minister also said he hopes Sweden’s accession will be ratified by Ankara after May elections

Finland’s president, Sauli Niinistö, has said he expects his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to tell him whether Turkey is endorsing the Nordic country’s Nato membership application when the two meet in Ankara later this week.

“It was known that once President Erdoğan has made his decision concerning ratification of Finland’s membership of Nato, he would wish to meet and fulfil his promise directly from president to president,” Niinistö told Reuters on Wednesday.

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Russian downing of US drone marks escalation of confrontation near war zone

Russia’s and China’s ‘signalling’ to US aircraft in international airspace is nothing new, but downing a craft is a worrying development

On any given day around Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, Russian and Nato aircraft and naval vessels, manned and unmanned, buzz around in close proximity, a constant recipe for a superpower crisis along the edges of a war.

The stakes are raised by the fact that both sides have thousands of nuclear warheads as a weapon of last resort, and the risks are raised considerably by reckless behaviour.

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Russia says it does not recognise Hague court amid reports of arrest warrants

International criminal court prosecutor is said to be preparing to formally open two war crimes cases

Moscow has said it does not recognise the jurisdiction of the international criminal court in The Hague, after reports that the court is expected to seek its first arrest warrants against Russian individuals over the war in Ukraine.

“We do not recognise this court; we do not recognise its jurisdiction,” Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told journalists in Moscow on Tuesday morning.

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Russian soldier who hid from Ukrainian forces for six months arrested

The 42-year-old serviceman had reportedly been hiding in abandoned buildings after liberation of Kharkiv

A Russian soldier who had reportedly been hiding for about six months in abandoned buildings after the liberation of the Kharkiv region has been arrested by Ukrainian police.

The soldier, a 42-year-old serviceman from the 27th Russian Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was taken into custody on Monday as regional police officers patrolled villages in the Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi area.

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ICC to issue first arrest warrants linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Two war crimes cases to be opened over abduction of Ukrainian children and targeting of civilian infrastructure

The prosecutor at the international criminal court will formally open two war crimes cases and issue arrest warrants for several Russians deemed responsible for the mass abduction of Ukrainian children and the targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, according to reports on Monday.

The New York Times and Reuters news agency reported that the prosecutor, Karim Khan, would ask pre-trial judges to approve arrest warrants on the basis of evidence collected so far. If successful, it would be the first time ICC warrants have been issued in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Ukrainian and Russian casualties mount as battle for central Bakhmut rages

Ukrainian general says it is using opportunity to kill as many Russian troops as possible and wear down its reserves

Fierce fighting is raging for control of the centre of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, forces from both sides of the conflict have said, as casualties continue to mount in the longest and bloodiest battle of Russia’s war.

Russia ratcheted up its efforts to take Bakhmut in early February after months of intense fighting around the town, and has since inched into the small city’s suburbs. Ukraine’s forces are now fighting off attacks from the north, east and south. Their only road out, to the west, is under Russian artillery fire.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 383 of the invasion

ICC expected to open two war crimes cases; Xi Jinping planning to visit Putin in Moscow and also to speak to Zelenskiy

The international criminal court intends to open two war crimes cases tied to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will seek arrest warrants for several people, the New York Times reported citing sources unauthorised to speak publicly. The cases are the first international charges to be brought forward since the start of the conflict, the newspaper reports.

Britain declared that the UK’s security hinged on the outcome of the Ukraine war in an update to its foreign policy framework published on Monday. The UK will invest an extra £5bn in the armed forces over two years and increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

Britain’s Royal Navy said it was escorting a Russian frigate and tanker in waters close to the UK having shadowed the vessels through the Channel on Sunday morning.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, is planning to visit Russia as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, according to Reuters. Xi also plans to speak with Volodymyr Zelenskiy for the first time since the start of the war, according to the Wall Street Journal. China’s president is to speak virtually with his Ukrainian counterpart, probably after a visit to Moscow next week, the paper reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Negotiations began on Monday between UN officials and Russia’s deputy foreign minister on a possible extension to a deal allowing the safe export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, the Russian diplomatic mission in Geneva said.

Moscow does not object to renewing a deal allowing the safe export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports but only for a period of 60 days, half the term of the previous renewal, Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin said.

The Italian government has said Russian mercenary group Wagner is behind a surge in migrant boats trying to cross the central Mediterranean as part of Moscow’s strategy to retaliate against countries supporting Ukraine, Reuters reports. Yevgeny Prigozhin responded: “We have no idea what’s happening with the migrant crisis, we don’t concern ourselves with it.”

The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Vladimir Putin and a staunch supporter of the war in Ukraine, met Russia’s president to discuss the war, according to reports.

Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said on Monday that relations between Russia and China were a major factor supporting global stability in the world today, Reuters reports, citing Russian state-owned news agency Tass.

Russian forces fired two rockets at a school in Avdiivka, according to the head of the office of the Ukrainian presidency, Andriy Yermak. One local resident was killed in the attack. Yermak also reported on Telegram that one civilian was killed and four people were injured in a rocket attack on Znob-Novhorodske in Sumy region.

Zelenskiy has awarded the Hero of Ukraine to Oleksandr Matsievskyi, a soldier who was executed by machine gun fire on camera after being captured by Russian soldiers. Zelenskiy said: “Today I conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine upon Oleksandr Matsievskyi, a soldier. A man whom all Ukrainians will know. A man who will be remembered forever. For his bravery, for his confidence in Ukraine and for his ‘Glory to Ukraine!’”

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Ukraine identifies PoW killed by Russians as Oleksandr Igorevich Matsievskyi

Combatant seen in graphic 12-second clip circulated on Telegram had initially been wrongly named Tymofiy Shadura

Ukraine’s security services have concluded that the prisoner of war killed by Russian soldiers in a clip that spread quickly across Ukraine and much of the world is Oleksandr Igorevich Matsievskyi, bringing an end to the dispute over his identity.

In the graphic 12-second clip that first circulated on Telegram last Monday, a detained combatant is seen standing in a shallow trench smoking a cigarette. The soldier, in uniform with a Ukrainian flag insignia on his arm, says “Glory to Ukraine” and is then apparently shot with automatic weapons by a group of Russian soldiers.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine ‘buying time’ in Bakhmut – as it happened

Both sides claim hundreds of enemy troops killed in past 24 hours. Follow all the latest developments

The Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar, said on Sunday that he believed the deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported via the Black Sea will be extended from its 18 March deadline.

The initiative, brokered between Russia and Ukraine by the UN and Turkey last July, was intended to prevent a global food crisis by allowing Ukrainian grain blockaded by Russia’s invasion to be exported safely from three ports.

Zakharova’s statement is noteworthy and supports several of ISW’s longstanding assessments about deteriorating Kremlin regime and information space control dynamics. The statement supports several assessments: that there is Kremlin infighting between key members of Putin’s inner circle; that Putin has largely ceded the Russian information space over time to a variety of quasi-independent actors; and that Putin is apparently unable to take decisive action to regain control over the Russian information space.

It is unclear why Zakharova – a seasoned senior spokesperson – would have openly acknowledged these problems in a public setting. Zakharova may have directly discussed these problems for the first time to temper Russian nationalist milbloggers’ expectations regarding the current capabilities of the Kremlin to cohere around a unified narrative – or possibly even a unified policy.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Bakhmut ‘killing zone’ hampering Wagner – as it happened

UK Ministry of Defence says capture of city has become ‘highly challenging’ for the mercenary group

Russian forces have made progress in the frontline hotspot of Bakhmut, a key target of Moscow’s months-long campaign in eastern Ukraine that has resulted in many casualties, the Associated Press reported.

Their assault , however, will be difficult to sustain without further harsh losses, UK military officials said in an assessment on Saturday.

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