In today’s newsletter: Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, explains the internal dynamics in Tehran, and what Israel and America may do next

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Good morning. For the first time, Iran has launched a direct attack against Israel from its own soil – and the Middle East stands closer to an all-out regional war than at any point since 7 October.

Tehran has claimed that it now views the exchange, prompted by an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, as over. The United States, meanwhile, said that it does not seek war with Iran. The crucial question is whether Benjamin Netanyahu feels the same way – and while two members of his war cabinet signalled on Sunday night that there would be no immediate response, there was no word from the prime minister himself.

Disability | The rollout of universal credit is on course to make thousands of working-age disabled people significantly poorer, a new report has warned. A single person with a long-term disability that prevents them from working is £2,800 a year worse off when they transfer to universal credit (UC), the Resolution Foundation said.

Sydney stabbings | The family of the Bondi Junction attacker have described his actions as “truly horrific”, offered condolences to the loved ones of the victims and expressed support for the police officer who ended the attack by shooting him dead. Police say Joel Cauchi had mental health problems and moved from Queensland to New South Wales a month before he killed six people in Sydney on Saturday.

Health | The British government was willing to risk infecting NHS patients to get “lower-priced” blood products, according to a document that campaigners claim proves state and corporate guilt in one of the country’s worst ever scandals. Internal company minutes produced by Immuno AG in 1976 say that “the British market will accept a higher risk of hepatitis for a lower-priced product”.

Childcare | England’s childcare system is falling behind those of much of the rest of the world, a UK charity for gender equality and women’s rights has said. A report by the Fawcett Society found that the English system was “crumbling” in comparison to other countries undergoing significant reform.

Theatre | Jamie Lloyd’s bombastic reimagining of Sunset Boulevard was the standout show at this year’s Olivier awards, with seven wins including best actress in a musical for Nicole Scherzinger. Mark Gatiss and Sarah Snook also won acting awards, while best new play went to James Graham’s football drama Dear England. See pictures from the ceremony.

Israel signals it will not immediately act alone, while US states it would not take part in any counter-offensive against Tehran

• Middle East crisis – live updates

Israel is weighing its response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone assault on its territory, signalling on Sunday night that it would not immediately act alone, but insisting its forces remained on high alert and that the leadership had approved both “offensive and defensive action”.

Two members of Israel’s three-man war cabinet made statements suggesting they were taking a longer-term view of the response to Iran’s first ever direct attack on Israeli soil. But the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had not declared a formal decision by late on Sunday.

Analysts suggest regime may be downplaying situation for fear conflict could spiral out of control

• Middle East crisis – live updates

If Iran is on the brink of war with Israel, and possibly the US, astonishingly little is being done by the regime to prepare its people for the coming struggle. That may be because Iran does not want an all-out conflict.

Even Iranian reporters have noticed the silence and how the rhetoric of imminent war is largely being stoked by US intelligence officials in Washington. One Iranian reformist newspaper had five reports on a possible imminent attack on Israel, including predictions of hundreds of cruise missiles raining down on Israel, entirely based on US news outlets, such as CBS, CNN, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.