Monday briefing: How Russia pulled back from the brink of civil war

In today’s newsletter: Over the weekend, Russian mercenary group Wagner marched on Moscow – only to turn back at the last moment. Why did one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies turn on him – and how was bloodshed averted?

Good morning.

Months of simmering tension between the Russian military and the Wagner group, a Russian mercenary organisation, came to the boil over the weekend after the group’s leader, hitherto Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed to have seized control of all military sites in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

NHS | Britons die sooner from cancer and heart disease than people in many other rich countries, partly because of the NHS’s lack of beds, staff and scanners, a study has found. The UK “underperforms significantly”, in part because the NHS has been weakened by years of underinvestment, according to the King’s Fund health thinktank.

Strikes | The government is prepared to overrule and block the pay rises that public sector review bodies recommend, a senior minister has confirmed, as unions threaten to strike over the issue.

Tax | More than 180,000 people on low incomes were fined for not filing a tax return on time last year, even though they received so little that they had no tax to pay in the first place. Many of these people, already in severe financial difficulties, misunderstood the initial fine and were then subjected to further fines and interest.

Greece | The New Democracy Party has won a comfortable victory in Greece’s second election in five weeks. The centre-right party won 40.5% of the vote, giving them an outright majority and their leader, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, a second four-year term in office.

UK news | The musicians Fatboy Slim, Billy Bragg, and Olugbenga Adelekan of Metronomy – in a letter to home secretary Suella Braverman – have called for the government to allow the resumption of tests of confiscated pills at music festivals. A cross-party group of MPs have condemned the Home Office’s decision to block onsite drug testing as “shortsighted and dangerous”.

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China downplays Wagner rebellion as Russia’s ‘internal affairs’

Beijing says it supports Russia in maintaining national stability, without explicitly referring to Vladimir Putin personally

Chinese officials have described an aborted rebellion by the Wagner group of mercenaries as Moscow’s “internal affairs”, while one state media mouthpiece dismissed the divisions in Russia as an “illusion” being exploited by the west.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko held talks in Beijing on Sunday after the most serious challenge to president Vladimir Putin’s grip on power since he came to power in 2000.

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Wagner rebellion reveals ‘cracks’ in Putin government, says Blinken

Secretary of state says mutiny may help Ukraine counteroffensive after Yevgeny Prigozhin calls off advance on Moscow

A day after renegade Wagner mercenaries almost sparked a civil war in Russia, the top US diplomat has said the uprising showed “real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s government and may offer Ukraine a crucial advantage as it conducts a counteroffensive that could influence the outcome of the war.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said the upheaval triggered by the aborted advance on Moscow by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries on Saturday was far from over. Neither Prigozhin nor Putin have been heard from since coming to a last-minute agreement on Saturday to avert clashes near Moscow between mercenaries and regular Russian troops.

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The Wagner uprising: 24 hours that shook Russia

Driven by his feud with the defence minister, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion has petered out … for now

Last Thursday Yevgeny Prigozhin let rip on his favourite subject: the incompetence and vanity of Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu. Seated in front of a Wagner flag and sipping from a mug of tea, he called his bitter enemy a scumbag. Shoigu was a craven PR man and oligarch who had never held a weapon in his life, he raged.

The defence ministry had duped Vladimir Putin into last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin added. The decision had nothing to do with “denazification” or “demilitarisation”, or an imminent Nato attack on Russia – the official reasons for the war. It was all about Shoigu’s wish for a second “hero of Russia” medal, he claimed.

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‘Putin humiliated’: what the papers said about the Wagner rebellion in Russia

Newspapers around the world raced to cover fast-moving events inside Russia, with many assessing what it could mean for Vladimir Putin

The extraordinary uprising by the Wagner mercenary force so crucial to Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine has dominated headlines around the world and raised question marks about the Russian president’s grip on power.

The Sunday Times said “Putin humiliated by mutiny” alongside a main picture showing Wagner mercenaries training their rifles on the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, the southern Russian city key to the invasion of Ukraine.

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‘I hope he wins’: how tense Rostov-on-Don welcomed Prigozhin’s forces

In the southern Russian city, the Wagner group boasted of taking key buildings without firing a shot amid an uneasy calm

As forces from Wagner occupied key buildings in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don in Russia on Saturday, some local residents met them as heroes, bringing them water and sweets even as Russian president Vladimir Putin decried their armed insurrection as a “stab in the back”.

“Finally, we can welcome them home,” said Evgeny, 36, a supporter of the war who has been among those crowdfunding and ferrying goods into occupied Ukraine. “The army has been fighting incorrectly from the beginning and they put too much [pressure] on these guys. In Bakhmut, everywhere. And you see what happens? Our own army is trying to stop us from winning this war.”

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Russian TV airs Wagner rebellion briefly, then switches to documentary on caviar

Official TV usually ignores inconvenient news – during the 1991 coup attempt it showed a tape of Swan Lake. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s action was different

Russians who watched television on Saturday actually saw the reports about the attempted coup, as state news agencies covered the armed insurrection led by Yevgeny Prigozhin while downplaying the potential chaos threatening Russia.

Prigozhin’s 24-hour uprising was perhaps the most direct internal threat to the Kremlin since the 1991 Soviet coup attempt, when communist hardliners detained Mikhail Gorbachev and sought to seize control of the country.

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Ukrainians dared to dream that Wagner action could be the fatal blow in war

Kyiv’s long-awaited counter-offensive has been slow, but a mutiny in the Russian lines looked like changing it all

When news of a potential civil war in Russia circulated across the country, Ukrainians struggled to believe it was real. But by Saturday morning, as footage was shared online showing the Wagner mercenary troops with their tanks and armoured vehicles advancing towards Moscow, millions were glued to their mobile phones.

The Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has since called off the advance, but for 24 hours, Ukrainians dared to dream that the warlord’s action could be the fatal blow in the war.

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Wagner mutiny: how the world reacted

Ukraine said Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising reflected Russia’s ‘full-scale weakness’ as western allies watched closely

As Vladimir Putin responded with ire and defiance to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising, later halted by the Wagner chief to avoid “Russian bloodshed”, world leaders closely watched the biggest challenge yet to the Russian president’s decades-spanning rule.

Ukraine

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Putin accuses Wagner chief of treason and vows to ‘neutralise’ uprising

Russian president gives televised address as Yevgeny Prigozhin claims to have taken over city of Rostov

The Russian president has accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army, taking over at least one major Russian city as social media footage showed his mercenaries at the main headquarters of Russia’s southern military command.

In an emergency televised address on Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin said “the fate of our people is being decided”, accusing the Wagner group headed by Prigozhin of “armed mutiny” and vowing to “neutralise” the uprising.

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Even if Wagner rebellion fails, Putin’s presidency has never looked weaker

Images of tanks in streets of Moscow evoke memories of a faltering Soviet Union’s final months in 1991

For months Yevgeny Prigozhin has theatrically railed against Russia’s military leaders. He has lambasted the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of bungling and incompetence over the war in Ukraine.

In one video Prigozhin blamed Moscow for the deaths of soldiers from his Wagner mercenary unit. Their bodies were piled up behind him. In a letter, he challenged Shoigu to visit the bloody Ukrainian frontline for himself, where Wagner troops have been fighting and dying in the eastern city of Bakhmut.

Luke Harding’s “Invasion: Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival” is published in paperback by Guardian Faber

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Wagner chief accuses Moscow of lying to public about Ukraine

Yevgeny Prigozhin dismisses justification for war that Kyiv was planning 2022 attack on Donbas and Crimea

The Wagner head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine, in the latest sign of conflict between Vladimir Putin’s government and one of his most important allies.

In an explosive 30-minute video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin dismissed Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.

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Russia-Ukraine war: Russia fires at rescue workers in Kherson; drone attacks reported across Ukraine – as it happened

One person killed and seven injured while clearing mud, officials say; Air raids reported in Lviv, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia

Suspilne, Ukraine's state broadcaster, reports that yesterday Russia shelled 19 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, and that one person was injured in Orikhiv as a result. It cited the local authority. Zaporizhzhia is one of four Ukrainian regions that the Russian Federation claimed to annex late last year.

This is Martin Belam taking over the live blog in London. You can contact me at martin.belam@theguardian.com.

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Russian forces face shortage of tanks as counteroffensive creeps forward

Ukraine forces slowly pushing back Putin’s troops, claims Kyiv, aided by western hardware

Russia’s forces are suffering a shortage of tanks, the country’s defence minister has admitted, as Ukraine’s offensive in the south and east continued to push back the frontline with the help of western hardware.

Sergei Shoigu, on a visit to a military factory in western Siberia, said that production of armoured vehicles needed to be increased as Kyiv talked up the heavy losses being inflicted on the occupying enemy.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 476 of the invasion

Volodmyr Zelenskiy meets head of UN nuclear watchdog; US House of Representatives votes unanimously to call for return of detained US journalist

The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, has met President Volodomyr Zelenskiy to discuss risks to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant ahead of a planned visit to the facility on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy has praised Ukrainian troops in his nighttime address and singled out units operating near Bakhmut, saying “there is forward movement in various areas”.

Putin has claimed Ukrainian losses during the conflict are near “catastrophic” and that the counterattack had not been successful in any area. The Russian president made the claim during televised meetings with war correspondents and military bloggers. “This is a massive counteroffensive, using strategic reserves that were prepared for this task,” Putin said. “They lost over 160, we lost 54 tanks, and some of them are subject to restoration and repair.”

The US House of Representatives has voted unanimously on a resolution calling for Russia to immediately release imprisoned US journalist Evan Gershkovich.

Moscow has also flagged it may withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal, after Putin says he has been cheated by the west who have failed to deliver on a promise to help bring Russian agricultural goods to world markets.

A Russian missile strike on an apartment in Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine has killed 11 and injured more than 30 people, according to an updated casualty list provided by Volodymr Zelenskiy on Tuesday.

The US government has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $325m which includes artillery rounds, anti-aircraft systems and 15 new Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles. The UK Ministry of Defence has announced a $115m air defence package for Ukraine. Latvia has allocated another $460,000 in aid to Ukraine following the Kakhova Dam disaster.

Ukrainian forces have been confirmed to have liberated the village of Neskuchne on Tuesday after Reuters journalists were able to reach the area. Russia has yet acknowledge any gains.

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Putin denies Zelenskiy’s claims of counteroffensive success for Ukraine

President admits Russia has lost 54 tanks in the opening assaults but insists Ukraine’s losses are greater

Vladimir Putin has denied Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s claims of early success in Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive, which has seen Kyiv’s troops regain some territory, while admitting that Russia had lost 54 tanks in the opening assaults.

In a televised meeting with military bloggers, Russia’s president conceded that his forces had taken losses but insisted that Ukraine had lost 25% to 30% of its foreign-supplied military vehicles including 160 tanks.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 472 of the invasion

Putin and Zelenskiy tussle over Ukraine’s counteroffensive narrative; water levels begin to recede in flooded regions near destroyed Kakhovka dam

Russian president Vladimir Putin said Ukraine had begun its counteroffensive against Russian troops but that efforts “so far have failed” after Moscow said it repelled several Ukrainian assaults. However, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy made no formal announcement of specific developments on the battlefield, but praised the “heroism” of his country’s soldiers fighting “tough battles”.

Water levels are gradually receding in parts of southern Ukraine that were flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, according to officials. Meanwhile, evidence is growing that the dam was blown up after seismic data showed there was a blast at the site in the early hours of Tuesday. Norsar, the Norwegian Seismic Array, said signals from a regional station in Romania pointed to an explosion at 2.54am. Norsar did not draw conclusions on who was responsible.

The US said Russia appeared to be deepening its defence cooperation with Iran and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones that it is using to strike Ukraine. Citing newly declassified information, the White House said the drones were built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea and then used by Russian forces against Ukraine.

The Wagner group has been accused of stoking “anarchy” on Russia’s frontlines after one of the Kremlin’s military commanders claimed Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries had kidnapped and tortured his soldiers during the battle for Bakhmut. In a video posted online, Lt Col Roman Venevitin also accused Wagner soldiers of stealing arms, forcing mobilised soldiers to sign contracts with Wagner, and attempting to extort weapons from the Russian defence ministry in exchange for releasing kidnapped soldiers.

Iceland announced it would suspend work at its embassy in Russia as of 1 August, the first country to do so, and asked Russia to limit its operations in Reykjavik. “The current situation simply does not make it viable for the small foreign service of Iceland to operate an embassy in Russia,” foreign minister Thordis Gylfadottir said.

Russia will start deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus after the facilities are ready on 7-8 July, Putin told his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko on Friday in a meeting in Sochi, Russia.

Nato allies on Friday condemned Russia’s decision to withdraw from the treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe (CFE).

Hungary said on Friday it had received a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russia, a release that Ukraine welcomed while expressing concern that it had not been informed.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has thanked Joe Biden for his $2.1bn (£1.6bn) security assistance package. In a tweet, Zelenskiy said the contribution is “more important than ever” since the Kakhovka dam collapse.

The Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, told Zelenskiy on Friday that Japan will offer emergency humanitarian aid worth about $5m (£3.9m) after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, a Japanese government spokesperson has said.

Ukraine’s domestic Security Service (SBU) said on Friday it had intercepted a telephone call proving a Russian “sabotage group” blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric station and dam in southern Ukraine. A one-and-a-half minute audio clip on its Telegram channel of the alleged conversation featured two unidentified men who appeared to be discussing the fallout from the disaster in Russian. One of the men said “Our saboteur group is there. They wanted to cause fear with this dam. It did not go according to the plan. More than they planned.”

The Kremlin on Friday accused Ukrainian forces of killing civilian victims of flooding caused by the collapse of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine in repeated shelling attacks, including one pregnant woman. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the purported attacks “barbaric”. Russia did not provide any evidence to back up its claims.

Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said on Friday that Crimea’s water supply will not be affected by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, and the peninsula had enough water reserves for 500 days. A canal from the destroyed reservoir fed drinking water to the peninsula. Kyiv cut access to the canal in 2014, after Russia illegally seized Crimea and claimed to annex it.

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Pro-Ukraine group of partisans captures Russian soldiers

Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion say they ‘will hand captured soldiers to Kyiv’

A pro-Ukraine group of Russian partisans has said it captured several soldiers during a cross-border raid into southern Russia and will hand them over to Ukrainian authorities.

The Russian Volunteer Corps made the claim in a video statement released on Telegram on Sunday after a raid into the Russian region of Belgorod.

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‘We will succeed’: Zelenskiy says Ukraine ready to launch counteroffensive

Ukraine’s president hints at concern over a possible Trump return in 2024 in Wall Street Journal interview

Ukraine’s president has declared his country’s military is ready to launch a long-awaited counteroffensive and hinted at concern about the possibility of Donald Trump retaking the White House.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, giving an interview to the Wall Street Journal, suggested that a significant attack could come soon and said he hoped a change in the US presidency would not impact military aid to Kyiv.

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