Where’s the red wave? Five key takeaways from the US midterms

Democrats appear to have surprised even themselves, though a Republican majority in the House seems likely

As results in America’s crucial midterm elections continue to come in, an unexpectedly mixed picture has emerged.

Many observers across the political spectrum were expecting a surging Republican performance certain to take back the House and perhaps to capture the Senate. But instead Democrats have beaten expectations. Congress may still fall to the Republicans – with the House very likely changing hands – but it is now far from certain or by how big a margin.

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Fetterman defeats Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race, giving Democrats a boost

Victory overturns a Republican-held Senate seat and increases his party’s chances of retaining control of chamber

The Democratic party received a huge boost in Pennsylvania in the early hours of Wednesday morning, when John Fetterman won the state’s US Senate race to increase his party’s chances of retaining control of the chamber.

Fetterman was declared the winner over Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor, six hours after the polls closed, overturning a Republican-held Senate seat to bolster Democrats’ chances of retaining the chamber.

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Midterm elections 2022: US voters head to polls as Republicans fight to take Senate control – live

Millions across the country vote while Florida state department tells DoJ that federal election monitors won’t be permitted

Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and host of the podcast America Explained, and he writes for the Guardian today to argue that the future of American democracy is at stake in the midterm elections:

Never before in American history has there been an organized movement which was only one vote away from having the motivation and opportunity to make that election America’s last. Never that is, until now. Today’s anti-democratic movement is propelled not by genuine controversy or scandal, but rather by their commitment to ending competitive elections in the United States. There is no other way to interpret their belief that only one side, the Republicans, can legitimately be considered to win, and the plans that they hold to make this belief a reality.

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Voters hold political fate of US in their hands as they cast midterm ballots

Voters across the US described a range of urgent concerns, from reproductive rights to anxieties about the economy and crime

Millions of Americans took to the polls on Tuesday for the 2022 midterm elections, a series of bitter contests that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress for the next two years, as well as key state and local offices. The outcome could also help determine whether 2020 election deniers gain more political power, and potentially set the stage for still more discord among an increasingly fractious electorate.

Voters across the US described a range of urgent concerns, whether over the ongoing assault on reproductive rights or anxieties about the economy and crime. Many also described a heightened level of worry about possible challenges to accurate election results and the disenfranchisement of voters, including protracted litigation that could sow dangerous distrust in the US’s electoral system.

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Ukraine urges US to ‘stay united’ as potential Republican win threatens aid

Prominent Republican party figures have signalled they would aim to reduce military support for Ukraine

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has urged the US to stay united in its support amid worries about the consequences of a Republican win in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

If the US Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the colossal financial and military support provided to Ukraine under the Democrats could falter.

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Biden makes final plea for high stakes midterms: ‘Next year will shape our lifetimes’

In his final speech before election day, the president attacked Republicans on the economy but also offered a hopeful note

Joe Biden rallied with fellow Democrats on Monday night, delivering a message of optimism and determination in the face of widespread concerns about his party’s showing in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Addressing a boisterous crowd in Maryland, Biden stressed the high stakes of the races that will determine control of the US Congress for the next two years. Painting a grim picture of a Republican-controlled Congress, Biden predicted that the opposing party would use their majorities to roll back Americans’ rights and dismantle social welfare programs.

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Midterms live: Biden says Maga Republicans ‘some of the darkest forces’ in US history – as it happened

President to speak in Maryland while predecessor travels to Ohio, amid surge in early voting

Volker Türk, the new United Nations high commissioner for human rights, yesterday urged Twitter owner Elon Musk to make respect for human rights central to the social media platform, amid savage cuts to the tech company’s staff under its new chief.

In an open letter, Türk said that reports of the new owner laying off the platform’s entire human rights team were “not, from my perspective, an encouraging start”.

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Kari Lake closes campaign office over envelope with white powder – reports

Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate’s staffer opened the envelope and is under medical supervision, spokesperson says

Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake closed a campaign office after an envelope containing “suspicious white powder” was delivered to the premises on Saturday, according to reports.

A member of the candidate’s staff unwittingly opened the envelope and is now under “medical supervision”, campaign spokesperson Colton Duncan told CNN.

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Republicans and Democrats make last arguments as midterms loom

Democrats frame election as referendum on US democracy while Republicans say they will better address economic woes

US political leaders from both sides of the aisle on Sunday made their closing arguments to voters two days before the hotly contested midterm elections, with several top Democrats framing the election as a referendum on American democracy.

President Joe Biden accused Republicans of reveling in political violence, saying hundreds of the party’s candidates for state, federal and local office were “election deniers, who say that I did not win the election, even though hundreds of attempts to challenge have all failed, even in Republican courts”.

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US far-right group sparks legal firestorm over drive to monitor drop-box voting

Melody Jennings of Clean Elections USA teamed up with True the Vote for project that echos Trump’s false claims about 2020

A far-right group run by a Christian pastor has sparked a legal firestorm by spearheading a drive to aggressively monitor drop-box voting for fraud in Arizona and other states, in an echo of Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election results were rigged.

Melody Jennings, who runs Clean Elections USA, has teamed up with the conservative group True the Vote, which has a track record for making debunked charges of voting fraud. Together they are promoting a project to hunt for alleged drop-box fraud, which Jennings boasted in multiple interviews on Steve Bannon’s podcast War Room and the MG Show, a conspiratorial QAnon program.

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‘He was chosen’: the rightwing Christian roadshow spreading the gospel of Trump

Part Trump rally, part religious service, and much conspiracy theory thrown in – on the eve of the midterms, Ed Pilkington visits the ReAwaken America tour

“There is a man by the name of Donald,” the voice on the recording says. “God said, ‘You have been determined through your prayers to influence this nation … I will open that door that you prayed about, and when it comes time for the election you will be elected.”

Three thousand people are packed into an overflowing auditorium, many with arms raised and eyes closed in prayer. The recording to which they are listening is from April 2013 and of Kim Clement, a late South African preacher, as he prophesies the first coming of Donald Trump.

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Ohio’s partisan supreme court election could decide abortion’s future in state

The midterms include key elections to the state’s highest court as the judicial system becomes increasingly politicized

In Ohio, a highly partisan fight over three state supreme court seats could determine the political direction of the court on a slew of important issues – particularly abortion.

With the US supreme court increasingly handing issues such as voting rights, abortion, gun rights and gerrymandering back to the states, state supreme court races are becoming more important than ever.

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We need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tatters

Decades of bailouts have convinced some that the Fed will always come to the rescue – but this only papers over the fundamental flaws of the US economy

With the Federal Reserve leading the world’s central banks in a tightening cycle of interest rate rises, the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2006, commentators across the political spectrum are noting the fondness of the Fed chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, for his legendary predecessor, Paul Volcker. On the left, the comparison is fearful; on the center and on the right, it’s one of admiration. But circumstances don’t really support the comparison.

On taking office in October 1979, Volcker declared “the standard of living of the average American has to decline” as a consequence of the war against the chronic inflation of the 1970s. He quickly set to work making that happen by driving interest rates up towards 20% and creating the deepest US recession since the 1930s.

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Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midterms

History shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm, and Democrats seem likely to follow that pattern

With just a few days left before polls close in America’s crucial midterm elections, Republicans appear better positioned than ever to regain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate as well.

History shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, and despite some optimistic signs over the summer, Democrats now seem likely to follow that pattern on 8 November.

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Twitter’s mass layoffs, days before US midterms, could be a misinformation disaster

Internal chaos at the company – and the decimation of its staff – has created ideal conditions for falsehoods and hateful content

The mass layoffs at Twitter that diminished several teams, including staff on the company’s safety and misinformation teams, could spell disaster during the US midterm elections next week, experts have warned.

The company has laid off around 50% of its workforce, according to news reports; a figure that Musk and others have not disputed, amounting to an estimated 3,700 people.

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Democrat John Fetterman gets boost from Oprah Winfrey in key Senate race – live

In less than an hour, Twitter employees expect official notification of whether or not they will keep their jobs under Elon Musk’s ownership.

A bloodbath is expected, and Twitter’s headquarters in San Francisco has been closed today while the news is delivered and employees digest their fates, or, as Musk may prefer, let the news “sink in”.

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US adds 261,000 jobs in October as unemployment rate rises slightly

Final jobs report before midterms shows unemployment rate at 3.7%, a day after Federal Reserve announced further raise hike

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October, the labor department announced on Friday in its last snapshot of the health of the employment market before next week’s midterm elections.

The latest report confirmed the remarkable strength of the US jobs market. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, still close to a 50-year low. The news comes after the Federal Reserve once again raised interest rates in a bid to slow investment and bring down inflation, a move that economists and the Fed predict will eventually cost jobs.

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Paul Pelosi released from San Francisco hospital after hammer attack

Husband of House speaker Nancy Pelosi underwent successful surgery for a fractured skull and other injuries after assault

Paul Pelosi, the husband of House speaker Nancy Pelosi, has been released from the San Francisco hospital six days after being attacked by a man wielding a hammer in the couple’s home.

The House speaker said in a statement on Thursday: “Paul remains under doctors’ care as he continues to progress on a long recovery process and convalescence. He is now home.”

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Chuck Schumer insists Democrats can hold or expand Senate majority – as it happened

In Pennsylvania, Chris McGreal reports that a major pro-Israel group is facing criticism for backing Republicans who denied the 2020 election, but not a Democratic candidate who would make history if elected:

More than 240 Jewish American voters in Pittsburgh have signed a letter denouncing the US’s largest pro-Israel group for backing extremist Republican election candidates while spending millions of dollars to oppose a Democrat who would be Pennsylvania’s first Black female member of Congress.

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‘Get ready’: Trump’s third White House run appears a matter of when not if

Flurry of reports suggests former president will move swiftly after midterms, as soon as 14 November – but who will challenge him?

As the midterm elections loom and Republican hopes of retaking Congress rise, it appears to be a matter of when, not if, Donald Trump will announce his third White House run.

The former president has trailed another campaign ever since his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, a contest Trump refused to concede, pursuing the lie about electoral fraud which fueled the deadly attack on Congress and his second impeachment.

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