Friday briefing: How will Ukraine fare this winter as Trump pushes for a controversial peace deal? ​

In today’s newsletter: After nearly four years of war, Ukraine is confronting deep fatigue, dwindling strategic options and fresh US pressure to accept terms that many see as a surrender in all but name

A week ago Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Ukrainians that they faced “a very tough choice – either the loss of our dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner”. The warning came as the Trump administration increased pressure on Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal that appears to secure all of Vladimir Putin’s war aims – a proposal European leaders have described as capitulation.

With the war about to enter its fourth winter, there seems no sign that either side has the capability to make a significant military breakthrough. Neither the incessant infantry grind on the eastern front, Moscow’s aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities, nor Kyiv’s long-range strikes on infrastructure inside Russia look likely to shift the equilibrium any time soon.

Politics | Keir Starmer says Labour “kept to our manifesto” over budget tax rises. The prime minister sought to rebuff claims Labour had broken its tax promises.

Workers’ rights | A flagship policy that would have given workers the right to claim unfair dismissal after their first day on the job is to be ditched by the government in favour of a six month-threshold.

US news | Donald Trump has said he will “permanently pause migration from all third world countries,” hours after the president announced that one of the two national guard members who were shot in Washington DC had died.

Hong Kong | Rescue operations inside the Hong Kong apartment complex that was engulfed by fire on Wednesday are “almost complete”, fire officials have said, as the death toll reached 94 early on Friday with scores more missing.

Ukraine | Vladimir Putin has said that the outline of a draft peace plan discussed by the US and Ukraine could serve as a basis for future negotiations to end the war – but insisted Ukraine would have to surrender territory for any deal to be possible.

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Putin insists Ukraine has to surrender territory for any deal to be possible

Russian president says latest draft peace plan ‘can be basis for future agreements’ if Kyiv gives up unspecified areas

Vladimir Putin has said that the outline of a draft peace plan discussed by the USand Ukraine could serve as a basis for future negotiations to end the war – but insisted Ukraine would have to surrender territory for any deal to be possible.

“In general, we agree that this can be the basis for future agreements,” Putin said, noting that the version of the plan discussed by Washington and Kyiv in Geneva had been shared with Moscow.

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Von der Leyen warns against ‘carving up’ of Ukraine amid crunch US-led talks

Commission president says undermining of sovereign European nation would ‘open the doors for more wars’

The European Commission president has warned against “the unilateral carving up of a sovereign European nation” as Europe scrambles to assert influence over the US’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine.

Speaking to European lawmakers in Strasbourg on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen said Russia showed “no signs of true willingness to end the conflict” and continued to operate in a mindset unchanged since the days of Yalta – the much-criticised and misunderstood 1945 summit to settle the postwar order.

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Von der Leyen warns against ‘carving up’ of Ukraine amid crunch US-led talks

Commission president says undermining of sovereign European nation would ‘open the doors for more wars’

The European Commission president has warned against “the unilateral carving up of a sovereign European nation” as Europe scrambles to assert influence over the US’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine.

Speaking to European lawmakers in Strasbourg on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen said Russia showed “no signs of true willingness to end the conflict” and continued to operate in a mindset unchanged since the days of Yalta – the much-criticised and misunderstood 1945 summit to settle the postwar order.

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As France prepares military expansion, how is Europe beefing up its armies?

European nations are rushing to bolster their defences amid Russia threat and uncertainty of US support

France will this week become the latest EU country to set out plans to expand its army, with Emmanuel Macron expected to announce on Thursday that military service will be restored – albeit on a voluntary basis – nearly 30 years after the end of conscription.

In the face of Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the US’s commitment to defending its transatlantic allies, Europe is rushing to bolster its defence industry and its deployment capability after radically cutting them back since the cold war.

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Mayors in England to get power to impose tourism tax on overnight visitors at ‘modest’ rate – UK politics live

Government announces overnight levy ahead of tomorrow’s budget

John McFall is standing down early as Lord Speaker in the House of Lords so that he can care for his wife, Joan, who has was Parkinson’s. According to Sam Blewett and Bethany Dawson in their London Playbook briefing for Politico, the main candidates to replace him are Michael Forsyth, a rightwing Scottish secretary in the final two years of the John Major government, and Deborah Bull, a crossbencher and former Royal Opera House creative director. They reports:

Labour isn’t expected to put forward a candidate as McFall’s previous political affiliation means it’s seen as another party’s turn to rule the roost, Noah [Keate] writes in to say. Forsyth has garnered support from some Labour grandees who like his traditional approach and aversion to modernization while Bull has being promoted by some female peers keen for a woman to take charge. One Tory peer described Forsyth as a “political animal” who may struggle to encourage a consensus across the chamber. A list of candidates’ register of interests and election addresses (up to 300 words) will be emailed to all peers on Dec. 1. Watch your inboxes!

Transport secretary Heidi Alexander rejected a rival proposal from Arora Group, saying Heathrow’s own plans were “the most credible and deliverable option”.

The Heathrow proposals involve building a 3,500-metre runway and require a new M25 tunnel and bridges to be built 130 metres west of the existing motorway.

Following a comparative assessment of the remaining proposals for Heathrow expansion, the government’s view is that the Northwest runway scheme brought forward by Heathrow Airport Limited offers the most credible and deliverable option, principally due to the relative maturity of its proposal, the comparative level of confidence in the feasibility and resilience of its surface access plans, and the stronger comfort it provides in relation to the efficient, resilient and sustainable operations of the airport over the long-term.

The HAL scheme is considered comparatively more mature in its approach to road infrastructure. While the HAL scheme requires major works to the M25, assessment indicates that the HWL scheme would also have a considerable impact on the M25.

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Seven killed in Kyiv as Russia hits Ukraine’s energy sector with missiles and drones

Wide-ranging assault included drones that crossed into Romanian and Moldovan territory

Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure overnight, killing seven and injuring 21 in Kyiv as a fresh round of US-brokered peace negotiations began in Abu Dhabi.

A total of 22 missiles, including four hypersonic Kinzhals, and 464 drones, were fired by Russia in attacks that principally targeted Kyiv and the surrounding area, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into Romania

Fighter jets track two uncrewed aircraft in first daytime breach of Romanian airspace since full-scale Ukraine war

Nato jets were scrambled to track two Russian drones that crossed into Romania on Tuesday in the deepest and first daytime incursion into the country’s airspace since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.

German Typhoon and Romanian F-16 fighter jets took off in pairs to follow the uncrewed aircraft. The first flew back into Ukrainian airspace, but the second was later found downed in Puieşti, about 70 miles from Ukraine.

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Jacob Zuma’s daughter accused of tricking men into fighting for Russia in Ukraine

South African police investigate allegations made against Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla by another of ex-president’s daughters

South African police are investigating allegations that a daughter of the former president Jacob Zuma tricked men into fighting for Russia in Ukraine by telling them they were travelling to Russia for a paramilitary training course.

Another of Zuma’s daughters, Nkosazana Zuma-Mncube, filed a police report on Saturday alleging that her sister Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla and two others, Siphokazi Xuma and Blessing Khoza, had recruited 17 men who are now trapped on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine.

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Disarray over leaked US-Russia peace plan is ideal scenario for Putin

Ukraine has been cornered into weighing terms it cannot accept and faces threat of losing its most important ally

The Kremlin has barely lifted a finger in recent days. It hasn’t needed to.

The 28-point US-Russia peace proposal, leaked to the media last week, has thrown Washington, Kyiv and European capitals into disarray, creating precisely the conditions Vladimir Putin has long sought: a negotiating table sharply tilted in the Russian president’s favour, with Ukraine cornered into weighing terms it cannot accept and the threat of losing its most important ally hanging over its head.

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US and Ukraine promise ‘updated’ peace framework after criticism of pro-Russian points in original plan

US-Ukraine statement comes hours after European countries propose their own alternative peace

The US and Ukraine said they had created an “updated and refined peace framework” to end the war with Russia, hours after European countries proposed their own radical alternative that omitted some of the pro-Russia points made in an original US-backed document that was leaked last week.

The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, emerged from a meeting in Switzerland late on Sunday with a Ukrainian delegation led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, saying he was “very optimistic” about the progress of the talks. A joint statement between the two countries said that any eventual deal would “fully uphold” Ukraine’s sovereignty.

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Safe haven to sanctions: how Jersey sheltered Roman Abramovich’s billions

Court papers show the island cautiously welcomed the oligarch – with London’s approval – before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

For decades the Channel Islands tax haven of Jersey has played a big role in moving fortunes made in some of the world’s most despotic countries into the west, attracting overseas oligarchs with a mix of low tax and high levels of financial secrecy.

It is a secrecy that extends to Jersey’s relationship with the UK government. As a crown dependency, Jersey has its own parliament, but belongs to the king. The relationship between the two jurisdictions remains something of a black box, with very little public information on how the big decisions are made, or to what extent Westminster is consulted.

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Trump says Ukraine deal is not ‘final offer’ as officials gather for Geneva summit

US president signals potential room for adjustments after Zelenskyy says proposals force Ukraine to choose between national dignity and losing the US

Donald Trump said on Saturday that his “peace plan” was “not my final offer”, after a furious backlash from Ukrainians who described it as reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 Munich agreement with Adolf Hitler.

The US president told reporters during brief remarks at the White House: “We’d like to get to peace. It should’ve happened a long time ago … we’re trying to get it ended, one way or the other we have to get it ended.”

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Farage’s views on Russia likely to be further tested after jailing of Nathan Gill

It would be expedient for Reform to take Labour’s advice and disavow ‘Putin talking points’

The discovery of a pro-Russian asset, Nathan Gill, at the heart of a British political party reads like the plot of a John Le Carré novel.

Russia was long known to have been trying to interfere in foreign politics with online bots and cyber-disinformation over the past decade.

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Trump may yet impose a Ukraine deal – but it threatens to be a disaster for Kyiv

Ukraine could be forced into an agreement but plan as it stands seems too bizarre for Zelenskyy to sell to his public

We’ve been here before: the Trump administration announces a roadmap towards peace in Ukraine that seems to be dramatically skewed towards Moscow’s demands; Volodymyr Zelenskyy gets on the phone to alarmed European allies; they quickly call Trump to message him that the whole idea is unworkable; the plan quietly dies. Rinse and repeat.

This time it feels a bit different, however. Reports on Friday suggested the US has threatened that if Ukraine does not sign a hastily concocted peace plan, Washington could withdraw intelligence-sharing and other support critical to the Ukrainian war effort.

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Reform UK’s former Wales leader jailed for taking bribes for pro-Russia speeches

Police say Nathan Gill received at least £40,000 while he was an MEP from Oleg Voloshyn, an alleged Russian asset

Reform UK’s former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, has been jailed at the Old Bailey for 10 and a half years for taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia when he was an MEP.

Gill, a member of the Ukip and Brexit party blocs led by Nigel Farage in the European parliament, had pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery between 6 December 2018 and 18 July 2019.

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Europe calls for role in Ukraine talks amid reported US-Russian peace deal

Foreign ministers express misgivings about draft US-Russian peace plan favourable to Putin

Europeans must be involved in any attempt to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia, the continent’s top diplomats said after reports of a US-Russia plan favourable to Kremlin interests emerged.

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, welcomed any “meaningful efforts” to end the war, but said Ukrainian and European input was needed for any plan to work.

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Any Ukraine peace plan needs Kyiv and Europe ‘on board’, says EU – Europe live

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas leads reaction as reports circulate about a secret plan between Moscow and Washington to end the war

Meanwhile over in Poland, the Belarusian charge d’affaires in Warsaw received a note requesting the extradition of two Ukrainian citizens suspected of sabotage on rail on behalf of Russia, a foreign ministry spokesperson told state news agency PAP.

Czech president Petr Pavel said he was following the news of the train collision “with great concern,” as he expressed his sympathy with all injured in the crash (10:21).

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Allegations about Farage’s conduct as schoolboy ‘disturbing’, says No 10 – UK politics live

The Guardian spoke to more than a dozen contemporaries of Farage at Dulwich college, a public school in south London

Healey is now taking questions.

Q: How close are are we to war?

It is Labour that is the party of defence.

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Moscow passes laws to boost defences against Ukrainian strikes

Vladimir Putin authorises the guarding of fuel sites by reservists, internet blackouts and tighter sentencing for acts of sabotage

Russia has passed sweeping laws to bolster its defences at home against Ukrainian drone strikes and sabotage operations, reflecting the Kremlin’s expectation of a protracted war with Ukraine.

Almost four years into Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine – a full-scale invasion he expected to last only weeks – Moscow is being targeted almost daily by Ukrainian drones striking energy facilities, while Ukrainian operatives have assassinated a number of high-profile Russian military figures deep inside the country.

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