Record Covid cases in Russia and Ukraine complicate military plans

Spread of Omicron variant cited as another factor that could determine whether Moscow launches offensive

The Omicron variant is causing record numbers of new Covid infections in Russia and Ukraine, threatening to impact military calculations over Russia’s continued troop buildup.

Analysts have cited various factors as possible contributors to whether and how Russia will launch an assault on Ukraine, ranging from Vladimir Putin’s psychological state to the strength of the western response and even the firmness of the ground during a mild winter in the region.

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‘We want the truth’: families of ethnic Pamiris killed in Tajikistan call for justice as tensions rise

Urgent protection for minority groups facing increased repression needed in crisis connected to escalating clashes across central Asian ex-Soviet region, say human rights groups

Parents of men killed by Tajikistan forces have called on the international community to step in and urgently protect ethnic groups being targeted by the Tajik regime.

In a rare interview, families from the Pamiri ethnic minority have demanded that soldiers who killed their sons be brought to justice and urged the UN to prevent a new phase of conflict in Tajikistan, a landlocked country in central Asia.

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Ministers accused of failing to stem flow of Russian ‘dirty money’ into UK

Anti-corruption activists criticise government inaction in face of years of Kremlin provocation

Britain’s efforts to halt the flow of Russian “dirty money” into the UK have been called into question in the aftermath of a threat by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, to hit Kremlin-linked oligarchs with economic sanctions if Ukraine is attacked.

Labour and anti-corruption campaigners this week accused the government of failing to curtail Russian wealth and influence in Britain, despite years of provocative actions from the Kremlin.

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‘Almost invisible’: Germans lose patience with Olaf Scholz as he hesitates on Ukraine

The new chancellor has faced criticism abroad for his stance, and is now coming under fire at home

Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz is waving goodbye to the honeymoon period of his tenure, as his “inaudible” stance over the brewing crisis on the Ukrainian border is failing to impress not just Russia-hawks abroad but also more ambivalent voters at home.

Scholz, whose liberal-left “traffic light” coalition was sworn in less than two months ago, has been criticised by Kyiv and other east-central European capitals for sticking to his country’s restrictive stance on weapons export to crisis regions and looking slow to spell out the potential sanctions that could be triggered by a Russian invasion into Ukraine.

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Russia plans ‘very graphic’ fake video as pretext for Ukraine invasion, US claims

Officials say they have evidence of plot to mock up scenes of attack using corpses, Turkish-made drones and actors playing mourners

US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.

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Russia to expel German broadcaster after RT blocked in Germany

Deutsche Welle boss says retaliation by Moscow, including closure of its bureau, is ‘total overreaction’

Russia is to expel the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) in retaliation for a German ban on broadcasts by Russia’s RT.

The foreign ministry said the press credentials of DW’s correspondents would be revoked, its bureau in Russia closed, and its German-language broadcasts would be banned from Russian satellite television in the near future. It said this was the first stage of its “retaliatory measures”.

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‘We will defend our country’: Ukraine’s border guards brace for Russian assault

While some locals at Belarusian border see no cause for concern, troops and tanks are ready to swing into action

Standing next to the snowy Belarusian border, Vladyslav Gorban showed off Ukraine’s latest defences against Russian attack. New wooden posts topped with coils of gleaming razor wire ran alongside a slush-covered road. There was a shallow defensive ditch, dug some time ago, and a yellow and blue customs post. Plus a dog, used to sniff out narcotics.

Gorban, a border guard, admitted Russian tanks would be able to smash through this flimsy ensemble of barricades and continue towards Kyiv, 140 miles away. But he had a warning. “If the Russians come, they can expect a nasty surprise,” he said, hinting at the new portable anti-tank weapons sent by the UK to Ukraine’s embattled pro-western government.

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Xi-Putin summit: Russia inches closer to China as ‘new cold war’ looms

Fifty years after Nixon and Mao’s historic handshake, the geopolitical world order is again being reshaped

When the leaders of China and Russia meet in Beijing this Friday shortly before the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, observers of the bilateral relationship will be looking for insights into how this 21st century quasi-alliance is reshaping the postwar world order.

It was 50 years ago this month, on 21 February 1972, that the historic handshake between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong changed the geometry of the cold war. Historians called the visit “the week that changed the world”. It later influenced Washington’s subsequent movement towards détente with Moscow.

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Ukraine crisis: Russia criticises US military moves as ‘destructive step’

Moscow says US deployments in eastern Europe increase tensions, as Nato says Russia has moved 30,000 troops to Belarus

The US decision to deploy more than 3,000 US troops in Germany, Poland and Romania is a “destructive step” that makes it harder to reach a compromise over Ukraine, Russia’s deputy foreign minister has said, as Moscow continues to build up its forces.

Alexander Grushko said the move by the US president, Joe Biden, would “increase military tension and reduce scope for political decision”, and would “delight” Ukrainian authorities, who would continue sabotaging the Minsk agreement “with impunity”. The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 were designed to reach a political settlement in the east of Ukraine, including greater autonomy.

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While the focus is on Ukraine, Russia’s presence in the Sahel is steadily growing | Bruce Mutsvairo, Mirjam de Bruijn, Kristin Skare Orgeret

With Russian mercenaries invited to Mali as European forces withdraw, how worried should the west be about Russia’s increasing influence across Africa?

Even in the turbulent, conflict-wracked Sahel region of Africa, the recent military takeover in Burkina Faso was intriguing. Amid the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation, the decision by neighbouring Mali’s military-led government to invite fighters from the Wagner Group, widely seen as a paramilitary network of mercenaries with Russian connections, is causing growing concern in many western capitals.

Mali’s transitional government faces a rough road to recognition after the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) announced a strengthening of economic and diplomatic sanctions in January in response to the proposal to postpone elections until at least 2026.

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Don’t panic: why Ukraine doesn’t like western talk of imminent attack

Analysis: While Putin’s intentions remain unclear, Kyiv would rather it didn’t get classed as the next Kabul

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has again insisted that Russia does not currently have enough troops in place to mount a further invasion of Ukraine, a day after Boris Johnson travelled to Kyiv and said there was a “clear and present danger” of an imminent military campaign.

Even taken together, the troops currently massed on Ukraine’s border with Russia, on the annexed Crimea peninsula and in neighbouring Belarus, are “insufficient for a large-scale military operation”, said Kuleba in a briefing for foreign journalists on Wednesday.

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Ukraine crisis: Biden to deploy more US troops to eastern Europe

More than 3,000 troops headed to Germany, Poland and Romania after talks between Washington and Moscow failed to ease tensions

Joe Biden will deploy more than 3,000 US troops in Germany, Poland, and Romania, as Russia continues to build up its forces around Ukraine, and after talks between Washington and Moscow failed to bring any breakthrough or easing of tensions.

Nearly 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne division will be going to Poland, a headquarters unit from the 18th Airborne Corps will move to Germany, and a 1,000-strong army armoured unit is being transferred from Germany to Romania.

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‘Clear and present danger’: Boris Johnson warns of imminent Russian campaign in Ukraine – video

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would end in a humanitarian, political and military disaster for Russia and the world, Boris Johnson has warned as he stood alongside the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Kyiv, saying the UK would be judged by the level of help it gave to Ukraine

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Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster, says Boris Johnson in Kyiv

PM joins Volodymyr Zelenskiy to spell out consequences of Russian aggression and declare UK will be judged by the level of its support

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would end in a humanitarian, political and military disaster for Russia and the world, Boris Johnson has warned as he stood alongside the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Kyiv, saying the UK would be judged by the level of help it gave to Ukraine.

On a flying visit to the Ukrainian capital, he denied the US and the UK were exaggerating the scale of the Russian threat, saying they were not trying to “big up” the intelligence. “The grim reality” was that Russian troops were “massing on Ukraine’s border. This is a clear and present danger,” he said, addingthat the troop concentration was “perhaps the biggest demonstration of hostility to Ukraine in our lifetimes”, saying it dwarfed the Russian forces mounted before the invasion in 2014.

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From eastern Europe we watch Ukraine in fear. Its fate could decide the continent’s future

Past trauma means we worry about Russia reclaiming its cold war sphere of influence and that the west will again abandon us

Two points about the Ukraine crisis are crystal clear. First, Vladimir Putin wishes to reimpose Russian control over Ukraine, whatever the price. His political dream of restoring the Soviet sphere of influence is echoed in a wishlist of “security guarantees” presented to western governments by Russia in December 2021. Nato, he maintains, should return to the pre-1997 state of affairs; Russia, apparently, need not.

Second, whatever Putin decides in the current crisis, there are real fears in central and eastern Europe that settled borders are now under threat. These fears are grounded in reason. What seemed unrealistic in the immediate post-cold war years is now again a real possibility. Questions about our collective safety and security have returned, along with memories of a traumatic and not so remote past.

Karolina Wigura is a historian of ideas, board member of the Kultura Liberalna Foundation in Warsaw and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin

Jarosław Kuisz is a political analyst and essayist, editor-in-chief of the Polish weekly Kultura Liberalna and a policy fellow at the University of Cambridge

Guardian Newsroom: Will Russia invade Ukraine? Join Mark Rice-Oxley, Andrew Roth, Luke Harding, Nataliya Gumenyuk and Orysia Lutsevych discussing the developments with Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday 8 February, 8pm GMT | 9pm CET | midday PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets here

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Moscow warns Ukraine may ‘destroy itself’ as Russia and US clash at UN

At a UNSC meeting, Russian diplomat Vasily Nebenzya claimed Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk pact could end in ‘worst way’

Ukraine will be responsible for its own destruction if it undermines existing peace agreements, a senior Russian diplomat has warned at a UN security council debate on the crisis.

The warning from Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, during a combative council session, came on a day of continued high-level diplomacy aimed at defusing the Ukraine crisis. The state department confirmed it had received a response from Moscow to a document the US delivered in Moscow last week, formally outlining areas where the Biden administration believes the two countries could find common ground. US officials would not disclose the contents of the Russian letter, saying they would not “negotiate in public”.

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US to target Putin’s inner circle with sanctions in event of Ukraine invasion

Washington official says sanctions list will comprise oligarchs and their family members

Washington and its allies have prepared a list of Russian elites in or near Vladimir Putin’s inner circle who would be hit with economic sanctions if the Kremlin were to order an invasion of Ukraine, according to a US briefing.

The language in the briefing by a US official to Reuters is notably similar to that used on Sunday by the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, who said Britain would introduce legislation to allow banks, energy companies and “oligarchs close to the Kremlin” to be targeted by London, and makes clear the targeting is coordinated internationally.

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Ukraine crisis live: face-off expected at UN security council meeting; US makes list of Russian elites to face sanctions

Washington to address ‘Russian aggression’, which Moscow dismisses as ‘PR stunt’; US prepares list of Russians linked to Vladimir Putin’s inner circle

The US and the UK, home to leading financial centres, are clearly gearing up to announce a coordinated effort to target members of the Russian elite with economic sanctions if the Kremlin orders an invasion of Ukraine.

The language from today’s US briefing – that economic sanctions will target Russian elite members “in or near the inner circles of the Kremlin” – is almost identical to that used by British foreign secretary Liz Truss on Sunday.

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Polar bears move into abandoned Arctic weather station – photo essay

Photographer Dmitry Kokh discovered polar bears living in an abandoned weather station in Kolyuchin, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Federation, while on a trip to Wrangel Island, a Unesco-recognised nature reserve that serves as a refuge to the animals

I had dreamed about photographing polar bears for a long time. Some time ago my hobby, wildlife photography, ceased to be just a hobby and turned into a large part of my life. And if you devote so much time to an activity then your goals should be ambitious. Most of all I like to take pictures of large marine animals, whether on land or under water. Not everyone knows, but zoologists classify polar bears as marine mammals since they spend most of their time on ice floes away from land. And their paws even have webbing.

There are only a few places on the planet where polar bears can be found in large numbers. One of them is Russia’s Wrangel Island, a nature reserve under Unesco protection that is often called a polar bear maternity ward. The place is very inaccessible, which may be bad for tourists but is great for the animals.

Polar bears living in an abandoned weather station in Kolyuchin, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Federation

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Kyiv urges Russia to pull troops back from Ukraine border

Call comes after Nato stresses need for EU countries to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas

Kyiv has urged Moscow to pull back its troops from Ukraine’s border and continue dialogue with the west if it is “serious” about de-escalating tensions that have soared amid fears of a Russian invasion.

“If Russian officials are serious when they say they don’t want a new war, Russia must continue diplomatic engagement and pull back military forces it amassed along Ukraine’s borders and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” Kyiv’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted on Sunday.

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