Will Covid-19 become less dangerous as it evolves?

Analysis: experts warn that viral evolution is not a one-way street and a continuing fall in virulence cannot be taken for granted

The pandemic has been awash with slogans, but in recent weeks, two have been repeated with increasing frequency: “Variants will evolve to be milder” and “Covid will become endemic”. Yet experts warn that neither of these things can be taken for granted.

Those stating that viruses become less deadly over time often cite influenza. Both of the flu viruses responsible for the 1918 Spanish flu and 2009 swine flu pandemics eventually evolved to become less dangerous. However, the 1918 virus is thought to have become more deadly before it became milder. And other viruses, such as Ebola, have become more dangerous over time.

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Could microclots help explain the mystery of long Covid? | Resia Pretorius

My lab has found significant microclot formation in long Covid patients. Unfortunately, these are missed in routine blood tests

One of the biggest failures during the Covid-19 pandemic is our slow response in diagnosing and treating long Covid. As many as 100 million people worldwide already suffer from long Covid. That staggering number will eventually be much higher, if we take into account that diagnoses are still inadequate, and that we still do not know what the impact of Omicron and future variants will be.

Patients with long Covid complain of numerous symptoms, the main ones being recurring fatigue and brain fog, muscle weakness, being out of breath and having low oxygen levels, sleep difficulties and anxiety or depression. Some patients are so sick that they cannot work or even walk a few steps. There is possibly also an elevated risk of stroke and heart attacks. One of the biggest sources of concern is that even mild and sometimes asymptomatic initial Covid-19 infection may lead to debilitating, long-term disability.

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New studies reinforce belief that Omicron is less likely to damage lungs

Six research groups’ findings all suggest variant multiplies more in throats and causes less serious disease

A growing body of evidence indicates that the Omicron Covid variant is more likely to infect the throat than the lungs, which scientists believe may explain why it appears to be more infectious but less deadly than other versions of the virus. Six studies – four published since Christmas Eve – have found that Omicron does not damage people’s lungs as much as the Delta and other previous variants of Covid. The studies have yet to be peer-reviewed by other scientists.

“The result of all the mutations that make Omicron different from previous variants is that it may have altered its ability to infect different sorts of cells,” said Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London.

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Two years of coronavirus: how pandemic unfolded around the world

In December 2019 the WHO was told of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. These charts show how Covid-19 has spread across the world since then

Two years ago today, as New Year’s Eve fireworks lit up skies across the world, news reached the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of “pneumonia” in Wuhan, China, the cause of which was unknown.

There had been several cases in December and possibly as far back as November in the region. But the subsequent WHO announcement was the first time that the world at large was made aware of its existence.

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Covid: how long are people infectious and how do isolation rules vary?

The US has cut the self-isolation period to five days, while in England it is seven with negative tests

The US has announced it is cutting the recommended self-isolation time with Covid to five days. How long are people with Covid infectious for, and why do the rules vary between countries?

What are the rules for self-isolation in the UK?

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Data appears to support claims that Omicron is less severe in South Africa

Scientists warn, however, that lower severity of cases is not fully understood and may not occur elsewhere

South Africa has reported data on Covid cases driven by the Omicron variant that appears to give added impetus to claims the country is experiencing a lower severity of disease.

“In South Africa, this is the epidemiology: Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe,” said Prof Cheryl Cohen of the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), one of the authors of the study.

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Omicron is exploding – but scientists are better prepared than for any past variant | Manon Ragonnet-Cronin

We’re making progress in the arms race against the virus, but work in the lab must be supported by public health measures

It’s beginning to feel a lot like last Christmas. Case numbers of a new Covid variant are exploding across the UK, and the prime minister is cautioning that restrictions may be called for. But while the threat of Omicron likely surpasses that of previous variants, our tools to track and combat the virus have also advanced since last year.

The world was alerted to Omicron by the Botswanan and South African scientists who first sequenced the novel variant on 24 November, and it was designated as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization two days later. It was immediately obvious to them that they had something alarming on their hands when they saw the large number of mutations in the Omicron genome.

Dr Manon Ragonnet-Cronin is an MRC Fellow at Imperial College London and a member of the Imperial College Covid-19 response team

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Is there any good news at all on Omicron? Yes, there are small signs of hope

Analysis: scientists are only starting to understand new Covid mutation but there is encouraging news from the laboratory, South Africa and on antiviral drugs

It’s hard to find much good news among the waves of grim statistics that have washed over the nation since the emergence of Omicron.

Once again, the NHS is threatened and again, the prospect of a new year lockdown looms. We seem to have gained nothing in the battle against Covid-19 during the past 12 months.

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Omicron likely to accelerate death rate in Europe, says health agency

EU risk assessment advises against Christmas mixing owing to new Covid variant’s high transmissibility

Christmas get-togethers may need to be downsized as Omicron is now “very likely” to increase the death toll in Europe even if it proves to be less severe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has said.

The new Covid variant’s high transmissibility means that more people are forecast by the EU agency to be admitted to hospital or killed this winter than previously projected.

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Will Omicron kill Christmas? How science stacks up in boosters v Covid variant battle

Analysis: UK faces grim winter if vaccines offer poor overall protection, but if the virus has weak powers to evade immunity, hospital cases can be contained

Two competing forces will determine Omicron’s impact on the nation over the next few weeks. The power of booster jabs to give last-minute protection against Covid-19 will be pitted against the new variant’s ability to elude existing immunity. The outcome will decide whether our festive season is going to be muted or miserable.

If enough arms are jabbed with booster vaccines, while Omicron turns out to have poor powers to evade immunity, then there is hope hospital cases will be contained and the NHS will be protected. Severe restrictions in the new year – including the prospect of lockdowns – could be avoided.

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As Covid mutates, the vaccine makers are adapting too

Focus on the exciting potential of T-cell immunity is spurring the sector on to create a new generation of jabs

The speed at which scientists worked to develop the first Covid jabs was unprecedented. Just nine months after the UK went into lockdown, 90-year-old Margaret Keenan officially became the first person in the world outside a trial to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. But the virus is mutating, and the emergence of the Omicron variant last month is already focusing attention on the next generation of jabs.

So what do we know about the new Covid-19 vaccines? One change is with delivery mechanisms, such as San Francisco firm Vaxart’s vaccine-in-a-pill, and Scancell’s spring-powered injectors that pierce the skin without a needle. But the biggest development is in T-cell technology. Produced by the bone marrow, T-cells are white blood cells that form a key part of the immune system. While current vaccines mainly generate antibodies that stick to the virus and stop it infecting the body, the new vaccines prime T-cells to find and destroy infected cells, thus preventing viral replication and disease. (The current vaccines also produce a T-cell response, but to a lesser extent.)

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Scientists use ostrich cells to make glowing Covid detection masks

Japanese researchers use bird antibodies to detect virus under ultraviolet light

Japanese researchers have developed masks that use ostrich antibodies to detect Covid-19 by glowing under ultraviolet light.

The discovery, by Yasuhiro Tsukamoto and his team at Kyoto Prefectural University in western Japan, could provide for low-cost testing of the virus at home.

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Two hippos test positive for Covid at Antwerp zoo

Staff at zoo in Belgium investigating cause of infections, which could be first reported cases in species

Two hippos at Antwerp zoo in Belgium have tested positive for Covid-19 in what could be the first reported cases in the species, staff said.

Imani, aged 14, and Hermien, 41, have no symptoms apart from runny noses, but the zoo said they had been put in quarantine as a precaution.

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Omicron: what do we know about the new Covid variant?

Scientists are racing to establish the variant’s transmissibility, effect on immune system and chance of hospitalisation or death

Three major issues will determine the magnitude of the impact of the new Omicron variant of the Covid virus will have on the nation and the rest of the planet. What is the transmissibility of this new Covid variant? How good is it at evading the antibodies and T-cells that make up a person’s immune defences? What are the chances it will trigger severe illness that could lead to the hospitalisation, and possibly death, of an infected person.

Scientists are struggling to find definitive answers to these critically important questions, although evidence already suggests Omicron has the potential to cause serious disruption. “The situation is very finely tuned and could go in many different directions,” says Prof Rowland Kao of Edinburgh University.

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Covid: scientists find possible trigger for AstraZeneca jab blood clots

Experts hope better understanding of rare side effect of vaccine could help ‘turn the tide’ on pandemic

Scientists believe they may have found the trigger behind the extremely rare blood clot complications stemming from the Oxford/AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine.

According to a team of researchers from Cardiff and the US, the reaction can be traced to the way the adenovirus used by the vaccine to shuttle the coronavirus’s genetic material into cells binds with a specific protein in the blood, known as platelet factor 4 (PF4).

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Omicron variant found around world as more nations tighten travel rules

US among more than 50 nations bringing in stricter border controls as variant is identified in 24 countries

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 has been identified in new countries around the globe, including the US, west Africa, the Gulf and Asia, as American authorities indicated they would further tighten border controls over concerns that the new strain may be more transmissible.

Underscoring the fast spread of the variant, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa – where Omicron was first detected – said it had now been found in five out of nine provinces, and accounted for 74% of the virus genomes sequenced in November.

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Covid-19 variants may not evolve to be less dangerous, says Neil Ferguson

Senior UK scientist says extent of threat posed by Omicron will not be clear until end of year

People should not assume that Covid will evolve to become a milder disease, a senior scientist has warned, adding that the threat posed by the Omicron coronavirus variant will not be clear until the end of December.

Prof Neil Ferguson, head of the disease outbreak analysis and modelling group at Imperial College London, told MPs on Wednesday that while evolution would drive Covid to spread more easily the virus might not become less dangerous.

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Omicron Covid variant ‘present in Europe at least 10 days ago’

Two cases of new Covid variant found in Netherlands predate last week’s alert from South Africa

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 was present in Europe at least 10 days ago and already appears to be spreading in the Netherlands and elsewhere.

“We have found the Omicron coronavirus variant in two test samples that were taken on November 19 and 23,” the Dutch health ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. “It is not yet clear whether these people had also visited southern Africa,” the ministry added.

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Covid: UK aims for 500,000 jabs a day in bid to outpace Omicron variant

Ministers to ramp up vaccinations to 3.5m a week as minimum gap for boosters is halved to three months

Ministers are targeting a return to half a million UK Covid jabs a day as the waiting time for boosters was cut to three months in a bid to outpace the Omicron variant that scientists believe is already spreading in the community.

Confirmed Omicron cases rose to 11 in England and Scotland on Monday, with scientific advisers braced for hundreds more to be detected in the next week or so.

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Travel firms scramble to rearrange holidays amid new Covid measures

Swiss skiing holidays in doubt as country joins Spain in tightening travel rules to contain Omicron variant

Tour operators are scrambling to rearrange Swiss skiing holidays after the country joined Spain in tightening travel restrictions amid rising concerns about the spread of the new Omicron Covid variant.

From Saturday night, Switzerland mandated 10 days of quarantine for all new arrivals, in effect wrecking skiing holidays in the Swiss Alps until further notice. Travel firms are also wrestling with Spain’s ban on non-vaccinated arrivals that will affect British holidaymakers from Wednesday 1 December.

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