Labor’s confidence going into Saturday’s election is tempered by gnawing anxiety about the underlying polling data

• Polls tracker; Election guide; Interactive seat explorer
• Party policies; Micro parties explained; Full election coverage
• Listen to the latest episode of our new narrative podcast series: Gina
• Get our afternoon election email, free app or daily news podcast

Australia’s major parties are headed for a historically low primary vote, continuing a downward trend of several decades, according to the latest from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker. Labor leads the Coalition 51.5-48.5 on the two-party-preferred measure according to our latest average, although there is still uncertainty in the polling.

The two-party-preferred vote has been trending towards a repeat of the last election, but this masks a more than two-point primary vote drop for both major parties. The votes lost by the major parties have gone “everywhere”, according to pollsters who spoke to Guardian Australia. Our model estimates the support for independents and minor parties is four points higher than at the last election.

Sign up for the Afternoon Update: Election 2025 email newsletter