Islamist groups in Middle East will emerge from Gaza war weakened

Hamas, Hezbollah and other militia are enfeebled – but Palestine is likely to stay at forefront of global politics

The ceasefire due to come into force on Sunday, barring a major last-minute problem, will cement massive and rapid changes across the Middle East and may seal a significant defeat for the Islamist militant groups that have been powerful actors in the region for years.

Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and assorted Shia Muslim militia in Iraq and Syria will all emerge from the conflict considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in Yemen are stronger – though this may not last. The Islamic State remains a shadow of its former self.

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‘A stern message’: how return of Trump loomed over Gaza ceasefire negotiations

US president-elect demanded a deal – while success against Iran and Hezbollah gave Israeli PM room to make one

The phone call from Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, surprised the aides of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Calling from Doha in Qatar last Friday evening, after Shabbat had already begun, Witkoff announced he was coming to Israel and would meet Netanyahu. Overruling the suggestion of Netanyahu’s aides that they could meet once the Jewish day of rest was over, Witkoff, 67 – a billionaire lawyer and real estate developer – insisted brusquely that they meet in the morning.

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Israel-Gaza war live: Ceasefire deal ‘on brink’, says US, but Gaza residents face fresh evacuation orders

Deal reported to involve release of 33 Israeli hostages alongside a partial Israeli troop withdrawal

In Oslo today, Norway is hosting a meeting of the global alliance for the implementation of the two-state solution.

Norway’s foreign ministry Espen Barth Eide is quoted by the Anadolu news agency making opening remarks in which he said that a ceasefire in Gaza would only be the beginning of the necessary process.

The time has come to take practical measures that advance the two-state solution, address the root causes of this conflict and directly confront the legality of the Israeli occupation and its ongoing violation of international law.

While we are waiting for a ceasefire, it is important to stress that it will not be acceptable for any entity to govern Gaza but the legitimate Palestinian leadership and the government of the State of Palestine.

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Wednesday briefing: What a Gaza ceasefire might look like

In today’s newsletter: With reports of a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations, a look at what the detail includes – and what its obstacles are

Good morning. After months of false starts, Israel and Hamas are close to agreeing a ceasefire that would involve the release of hostages and a major influx of aid into Gaza. Last night, both sides appeared to have accepted the outlines of a deal, with Reuters reporting that once Israel delivers maps showing how its forces will withdraw from Gaza, Hamas will give its response.

“It’s closer than it’s ever been before,” US secretary of state Antony Blinken said yesterday. “But, right now, as we sit here, we await final word from Hamas on its acceptance, and until we get that word, we’ll remain on the brink.”

Economy | UK inflation unexpectedly fell in December, handing some breathing space to the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, after a week of turbulence in financial markets. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the consumer prices index eased to 2.5%, below a reading of 2.6% in November.

UK politics | Tulip Siddiq has resigned as a Treasury minister after accepting the furore over her close ties to her aunt, the ousted prime minister of Bangladesh now accused of corruption, had become a distraction. An investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing but said a lack of records meant that it was not possible “to obtain comprehensive comfort” over properties linked to Sheikh Hasina.

South Korea | South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has been arrested and is being questioned over his ill-fated declaration of martial law last month, anti-corruption investigators said on Wednesday, bringing to an end an early-morning standoff outside his official residence in Seoul.

Health | Doctors are proposing a “radical overhaul” of how obesity is diagnosed worldwide amid concerns that a reliance on body mass index may be causing millions of people to be misdiagnosed. Relying only on BMI is “ineffective” because it is not a direct measure of fat and does not provide information about a person’s health, a report by the Lancet commission said.

Comedy | The comedian and actor Tony Slattery has died aged 65 after a heart attack, his partner has announced. Slattery was known for his improvisations on the popular comedy show Whose Line Is It Anyway?, as well as his appearances on Just a Minute and Have I Got News for You.

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Families cautiously optimistic that Israeli hostages may soon be free

Relatives watch and wait as talks to broker ceasefire between Israel and Hamas continue in Qatar

The families of Israeli hostages held captive for 15 months in the Gaza Strip have voiced cautious optimism their loved ones may soon be free as talks to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas continued in Qatar.

“The reports suggesting a potential deal to secure the release of our loved ones offer a glimmer of hope, though we remain cautious,” a statement from the families released by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum headquarters said on Tuesday. “Our hearts are filled with both hope and apprehension as we await concrete developments. In these sensitive times, it is our shared responsibility to exercise care and consideration.”

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Afghans evacuated by US in chaos of withdrawal are languishing in foreign camps, documents reveal

Exclusive: records show evacuees with pending applications to enter US ‘forced to remain in limbo’ in at least 36 countries, some in ‘untenable conditions’

Afghan citizens who fled the country with American assistance after the US’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan remain stranded in third countries, new documents shared exclusively with the Guardian suggest, some at prison-like facilities and many with no clarity about their prospects for resettlement.

US officials won’t say exactly how many Afghans remain at such sites, where they were taken after the withdrawal that involved hundreds of thousands fleeing for their lives during the Taliban’s lightning takeover in 2021. Some advocates estimate that “hundreds” remain stranded in temporary facilities in up to three dozen countries.

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Biden insists US is ‘winning’ on world stage – what would losing look like?

The president defended his record on Ukraine, Gaza and Afghanistan but foreign policy successes have been few

On paper, few US presidents could boast the foreign policy bona fides of Joe Biden, a veteran statesman with nearly a half-century of experience before he even stepped into office.

But as his term comes to an end, critics have said that the president will leave a legacy of cautious and underpowered diplomacy, as even allies have conceded that the administration is still grasping for a cornerstone foreign policy success.

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Israel-Gaza war live: Progress made in ceasefire and hostage release talks, officials say, but deal not yet reached

Israel claims not to have seen ‘final’ draft of agreement designed to end war as some officials optimistic deal is close

At least 46,584 Palestinian people have been killed and 109,731 injured in Israeli attacks on Gaza since 7 October 2023, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement on Monday.

At least 19 Palestinians were killed in the last 24 hours, the ministry said.

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UK should back tough Trump sanctions on Iran, report says

Former top UK official believes intensifying economic pressure on Tehran would erode internal support for regime

The UK should back Donald Trump’s expected maximum economic sanctions against Iran as part of an effort to encourage nationals to end their support for the current regime in Tehran, Mark Sedwill, the former cabinet secretary, argues in a report published on Monday.

He writes: “It is not for the west, let alone the UK, to determine who rules Iran. That is for the Iranian people. But we can make clear that the right choice will bring benefits just as the wrong one will bring more of the same.”

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Italy releases Iranian man wanted by US over drone attack in Jordan

Mohammad Abedini detained on US warrant three days before Italian journalist Cecilia Sala was arrested in Iran

Italy has released an Iranian citizen wanted by the US over a drone attack in Jordan that killed three Americans a year ago, after the Italian justice minister asked a court to revoke his arrest.

Mohammad Abedini has already returned to Iran, Iranian state TV said on Sunday afternoon.

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Ministers from 17 countries meet for Saudi talks on speeding aid to Damascus

Riyadh meeting also discussed keeping pressure on Syria’s new leadership to meet commitment to inclusive transition

Ministers from 17 Middle East and western countries have met in Riyadh to discuss how to speed aid to the new Syrian government while keeping pressure on the caretaker leadership to meet its commitment to run an administration representative of all religions and ethnic groups.

The meeting on Sunday came as protesters in Syria called on the west to move faster on lifting economic sanctions, and so persuade more refugees to return from Europe and the states surrounding the country.

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Somalia and Ethiopia agree to restore diplomatic ties after year-long rift

Somalia severed relations over sea access agreement Ethiopia signed with separatist region of Somaliland

Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to restore diplomatic representation in their respective capitals, more than a year after Somalia severed ties over a sea access agreement landlocked Ethiopia signed with the separatist northern Somali region of Somaliland.

In a joint statement after an unexpected visit by Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, both countries committed to “restore and enhance bilateral relations through full diplomatic representation in their respective capitals”.

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Sudan’s army recaptures Wad Madani from rebel Rapid Support Forces

Strategic city fell into control of RSF, which has been accused of genocide by the US, in December 2023

Sudan’s military and its allies have taken back a strategic city from the rebel Rapid Support Forces, officials said.

The recapture of Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira province, took place more than a year after it fell to the RSF. Wad Madani had previously been a haven for displaced families in the early months of the war.

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Gaza death toll 40% higher than official number, Lancet study finds

Analysis estimates death toll by end of June was 64,260, with 59% being women, children and people over 65

Research published in the Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was about 40% higher than numbers recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions, using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis.

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Lebanon elects Joseph Aoun as president after two-year vacancy

Army commander’s election increases confidence that ceasefire with Israel will hold

Lebanon’s parliament has elected the army commander Joseph Aoun as the country’s new president, ending a more than two-year vacancy and increasing confidence that a ceasefire with Israel will hold.

Aoun received 99 out of 128 votes in the 13th attempt by a deeply divided parliament to elect a new head of state after the departure of the former president Michel Aoun, who is no relation, in October 2022. Aoun was the favoured candidate of international powers such as Saudi Arabia, France and the US, which enjoyed good relations with him in his role as head of Lebanon’s armed forces.

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Kurdish general urges Trump to leave US troops in north-east Syria

Exclusive: SDF leader says removal of 2,000-strong force would leave door open for Islamic State resurgence

The leader of the Kurdish forces that control north-eastern Syria has called on Donald Trump to maintain a US military presence in the region, warning that a retreat would risk a resurgence of Islamic State in the country.

Gen Mazloum Abdi, the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said IS had increased its strength in the desert after seizing arms from the collapsed Assad regime, while the Kurdish forces were coming under increased pressure from Turkey and its Syrian proxies.

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British IS members in Syria should be allowed home, says Trump’s counter-terror pick

Sebastian Gorka says letting people in prison camps return to Britain would benefit the ‘special relationship’ with US

British nationals being held in Syrian prison camps for fighting on behalf of Islamic State should be allowed to return to the UK, Donald Trump’s incoming counter-terrorism chief has said.

Any country that wants to be a “serious ally” to the United States should commit to the international fight against the extremist group by repatriating its citizens, according to Sebastian Gorka.

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Quaker group pulls NYT ad over paper’s refusal to let it call Israel’s Gaza bombing ‘genocide’

Organization said paper’s refusal ‘outrageous attempt to sidestep the truth’, choosing ‘silence over accountability’

The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC), a Quaker organization that advocates for peace, said on Monday the group cancelled a planned advertisement in the New York Times in response to the paper refusing to allow it to refer to Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide.

“The refusal of The New York Times to run paid digital ads that call for an end to Israel’s genocide in Gaza is an outrageous attempt to sidestep the truth,” said Joyce Ajlouny, general secretary for the AFSC, in a press release. “Palestinians and allies have been silenced and marginalized in the media for decades as these institutions choose silence over accountability. It is only by challenging this reality that we can hope to forge a path toward a more just and equitable world.”

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Inclusive transition best path to lifting of Syria sanctions, says UN special envoy

Geir Pedersen tells security council the HTS administration has great opportunities but also risks making missteps

A credible process leading to a new transitional government involving all strands of Syrian society is the best way for the country’s caretaker administration to secure a smooth lifting of sanctions, the UN special envoy Geir Pedersen has told the UN security council.

Giving his assessment of how the government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was meeting its commitment to inclusiveness, Pedersen said it had tremendous opportunities but also risked making missteps.

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Gaza Cola launched by Palestinian activist to rebuild destroyed hospital

Sales of fizzy drink from London hoped to raise money and send a message to big firms ‘investing in armed trade’

Gaza’s healthcare is on the brink of “total collapse”, according to the UN, because of the targeting of hospitals by Israel. While it is still impossible to say how much time and money it will take to rebuild, one Palestinian activist has plans to piece one small part of it back with the help of a soft drink.

Osama Qashoo, the creator of Gaza Cola, hopes to use profits from his Coca-Cola alternative, recently launched in London, to rebuild al Karama hospital, which used to stand in northern Gaza. “It’s been reduced to rubble for no just reason, like all of these hospitals in Gaza,” according to the 43-year-old film-maker, human rights advocate and, now, fizzy-drink maker.

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