Brinkmanship, nerves and 176 civilian deaths: the Iran air disaster

There are suspicions in the west, denials in Tehran, grim echoes for Ukraine, and grief spread far and wide

It was still dark when Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 took off on Wednesday from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini airport. Onboard were 176 people. Most were returning home after holidays spent with families and friends in Iran. They were couples, newlyweds, students.

A mother and a daughter – Sahar Hagjjoo and her eight-year-old child Elsa – posed for a photograph together after taking their seats. A sweet one, with the pair relaxed, smiling, a little tired from the early start. Everyone on the plane would have known of the strained diplomatic circumstances swirling before them.

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Man who tackled London attacker with tusk says Trump is ‘feeding terror’

Exclusive: Darryn Frost tells of fighting terrorist with narwhal tusk and of dangers of US policy

The man who used a narwhal tusk to tackle the London Bridge terrorist Usman Khan has accused Donald Trump of “feeding terror” with his belligerent Middle East policy, warning it will breed more murderous attackers like the one he and others faced.

In his first interview since Khan killed two people and injured several more at a criminal justice conference on 29 November, Darryn Frost said the US president’s decision to assassinate General Qassem Suleimani would cost lives and added: “The next generation of terrorists will rise as a direct result of these actions and we must condemn them now.”

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Iran plane crash: Ukraine’s president calls on US and allies to share evidence – live

Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss investigation with US secretary of state Mike Pompeo

The head of Iran’s Civil Aviation body has told reporters that authorities examining the contents of the Flight 752’s black box today at a laboratory at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport.

The will attempt to assess whether it is possible to reconstruct and analyse the information inside the country, according to Iran’s IRNA news agency.

A British-Iranian woman jailed in Iran has had panic attacks since tensions between the country and the US escalated, her husband has said.

Richard Ratcliffe said the fallout from Donald Trump’s assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani was taking a toll on the mental health of his wife, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

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Why did Trump order the killing of Iran’s Qassem Suleimani? – video explainer

Qassem Suleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad, was widely considered to be the most powerful man in Iran after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – and Iran's leading military figure. 

Suleimani’s assassination has plunged the Middle East into a crisis that seems likely to lead to further escalation between Washington and Tehran. The Guardian's Middle East correspondent Martin Chulov examines what motivated Donald Trump to order the assassination

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Trump pulls back for now but game of chicken with Tehran far from over

Neither Tehran nor Washington want a war but the campaign of maximum pressure and the impulse for revenge mean they remain on collision course

The safety net that prevented a new Middle East catastrophe overnight has always been there. Neither the US nor Iran wants to go to war with each other. But it is a failsafe that has been tested too fecklessly too many times – and there is no reason to assume it will continue to hold indefinitely.

The fact there have been no confirmed reports of casualties from Iran’s missile strikes on military bases in Iraq may be due to early warning systems or the fact that Iraq’s government was tipped off so Americans and Iraqis had enough time to take cover. But the intention seems to have been to keep the strike limited and proportional.

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The optics of Trump’s announcement: America stands ready to strike

President flanked by cabinet members and backed by eight military officers sent a clear message

As concern swelled about a potential military confrontation with Iran, Donald Trump appeared at the White House on Wednesday to deliver a notably non-provocative message, emphasizing that no Americans had been killed in Iranian missile strikes the night before.

But the choreography of the announcement, with Trump flanked by cabinet members and backed by eight military officers, communicated a clear subtext: America stood ready to strike.

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Dialled down: Iran’s phoned-in attack just enough to ease tensions

Despite first direct military action against US in 40 years, Iran’s action results in toned down rhetoric on both sides

The call had been expected any time since Friday. And when it finally came, the acting Iraqi prime minister knew what to expect. Just before 2am in Baghdad, Adel Abdul Mahdi listened to a message from Tehran informing him that Iranian rockets were airborne and heading his country’s way.

Related: Trump backs away from further military confrontation with Iran

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‘Wrong then, wrong now’: US clash with Iran echoes march to Iraq war

As a new Republican president seeks re-election, senior figures in Washington warn history may be repeating itself

A Republican president facing a tough re-election campaign and widely viewed as hopelessly out of his depth. Bureaucrats itching to turn US military firepower on a Middle Eastern regime they claim without evidence is plotting an imminent attack. Compliant sections of the media that put flag-waving jingoism ahead of skeptical scrutiny.

So it was in late 2002, when President George W Bush’s administration built unstoppable momentum towards invading Iraq, promising to destroy weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that never existed. Nearly two decades later the potential target is not Iraq but Iran, with many of the same concerns over false pretexts and official lies.

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Iran’s assault on US bases in Iraq might satisfy both sides

Tehran can show it has retaliated over the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, while US may shrug off limited nature of strike

The “severe revenge” Iran promised for the death of Qassem Suleimani was heralded on Wednesday morning by at least two waves of short-range missile attacks on bases in Iraq hosting US and coalition personnel.

The attacks will provide an opportunity for hawks inside the Donald Trump administration to ratchet up the conflict with Iran – but also potentially a pathway out of the crisis.

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Iran: Suleimani funeral crush death toll rises to more than 50 – latest updates

Mourners are crushed in city of Kerman during procession for general killed by US drone strike

British ships and helicopters have been placed on standby in the Middle East in case there is a further military escalation of the Iran crisis, the defence minister told MPs in the Commons.

Ben Wallace said the UK had taken “urgent measures” to protect British nationals and interests in Iraq and other nearby countries should Iran retaliate after the assassination of Suleimani.

Related: British ships put on standby in Gulf, minister tells MPs

Iranian military forces have said they are prepared to use medium- to long-range missiles to attack US bases in the Middle East, in revenge for the assassination of Suleimani.

According to a report by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Iran has prepared 13 scenarios for retaliation, and the secretary of Iran’s national security council said that even the most limited of the options would be a “historic nightmare” for the US.

Related: Iran threatens to hit US bases with medium- and long-range missiles

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Footage shows ​packed crowds during Suleimani burial procession – video

Dozens of people have been killed in a crush in the south-eastern Iranian city of Kerman, where hundreds of thousands of mourners have gathered for the burial of the military commander Qassem Suleimani, according to state media.

The vast crowds in Suleimani's home town matched the huge turnouts in Baghdad, Tehran, Qom, Mashhad and Ahvaz in recent days to say farewell to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards external operations force, who was killed by a US drone strike in Iraq on Friday

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Diplomacy over Iran is still possible – if only to avoid an all-out war

Tehran has vowed revenge for the killing of Qassem Suleimani but conflict is not yet certain

The threats emanating from Twitter feeds and podiums in Tehran and Washington might suggest the moment for diplomacy has long passed, and some form of war between the US and Iran following the assassination of Qassem Suleimani is now inevitable.

The only consideration that might hold the two sides back is the possible consequences. Tehran has tasted the unpredictability of Donald Trump and however much the desire for revenge beats in the hearts of Iranians, European leaders are pleading with Tehran’s leadership, saying it has a responsibility to use its head and recognise any direct attack on US assets in the Middle East is likely to be met with a further escalation by Trump.

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Impeachment: Warren accuses Trump of ‘wag the dog’ strike on Suleimani

Elizabeth Warren has suggested Donald Trump ordered the drone assassination of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani to distract the American public from his own impeachment, taking the country “to the edge of war” for his own political purposes.

Related: Making of a martyr: how Qassem Suleimani was hunted down

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Trump campaigns with patriotism after airstrike – but election is still far off

Killing of Suleimani will help Trump among his supporters, but it could hurt him at the ballot box after promises of ‘America first’

“We have God on our side.” They have long been some of the most chilling words in the English language. Perhaps never more so than when uttered by Donald Trump in a re-election campaign.

The president made the claim at an Evangelicals for Trump rally at a megachurch in Miami on Friday night, a day after taking America to the brink of war with the killing in Baghdad of Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s top general and potential future leader.

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Qassem Suleimani: chants of ‘death to America’ at Baghdad funeral

Thousands of mourners attend funeral procession for Iranian general killed in US airstrike

Thousands of mourners have marched in a funeral procession through Baghdad for Iran’s top general and Iraqi militant leaders, who were killed in a US airstrike, chanting: “Death to America.”

The bodies of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani and others killed in a US drone strike were taken on a funeral procession starting in Baghdad on Saturday before a public farewell for the slain military leader in Tehran on Sunday, according to officials in Iran.

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Trump’s order to kill Iran’s top general is his biggest gamble yet

The president delivered a truck load of red meat to his base – but has he considered what follows the immediate sugar rush?

The only predictable thing about Donald Trump is his unpredictability. Two days into the month of an impeachment trial and an election year, he gave the kaleidoscope a mighty shake with arguably the most consequential decision of his presidency.

Related: Iran crisis: McConnell lauds death of 'master terrorist' as Democrats question Trump strategy – live

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Reprisals against US to come at time and place of Iran’s choosing

The threat to America and its allies is greatest in the Middle East, but Tehran has ample options when it comes to taking revenge

Iran has spent decades preparing for a moment like this, developing methods and networks around the world that give Tehran the widest possible choice when it comes to taking revenge.

Related: Iran crisis: Trump says Suleimani 'should have been taken out years ago' – live updates

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Protests and prayers after the killing of Qassem Suleimani – in pictures

Iran has vowed revenge for a US airstrike at Baghdad international airport that killed Gen Qassem Suleimani, the head of the elite Quds force and architect of Iran’s spreading military influence in the Middle East

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Qassem Suleimani’s death threatens to open grisly new chapter in Middle East

Killing of powerful Iranian general will have far-reaching consequences for Trump

In his long military career, Qassem Suleimani left the Middle East littered with corpses. Now he has finally joined them. His death has closed one gruesome chapter in the region’s endless conflicts, only to open another, which could well prove even worse.

No one can predict how this will turn out, perhaps least of all the two leading protagonists. Nothing about Donald Trump’s actions in the Middle East until now suggests that Suleimani’s assassination by drone outside Baghdad airport was part of a considered plan.

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Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis: Iraqi killed in US strike was key militia figure

Man who died alongside Suleimani was important Shia leader in post-Saddam era

A few days before his assassination in an American drone strike, Jamal Jafaar Mohammed Ali Ebrahimi – known more widely by his nom de guerre of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis – addressed a crowd of his supporters in Iraq.

“The US ambassador, the Americans and their intelligence agencies must not think that they can sustain their control over their bases in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,” he said, in the aftermath of US strikes that had killed two dozen members of the militia he founded.

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