Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman

Polling ‘Nostradamus’, said to have correctly forecast since 1984 all races except Gore’s loss, says Trump on track to lose

Allan Lichtman, the historian dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the White House in November’s poll.

Having previously warned the Democrats of the dangers of removing Joe Biden from the ticket, Lichtman nevertheless forecast that the vice-president, who became the party’s nominee after the president withdrew in July, would be elected in a video for the New York Times.

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Blair government accused IDF of acting like Russian army in West Bank

Tensions over Palestinian death toll have eerie parallels to western concerns about current Israeli operations

Tony Blair’s government accused Israeli forces of acting more like the “Russian army than that of a civilised country” during a major military incursion into the occupied West Bank, newly released official files show.

The tensions, which have eerie parallels to western concerns over current Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip, are laid bare in papers released by the National Archives.

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‘Correct a black mark in US history’: former prisoners of Abu Ghraib get day in court

Jury trial against military contractor CACI over ‘sadistic, blatant and wanton abuses’ comes 20 years after scandal broke

The first trial to contend with the post-9/11 abuse of detainees in US custody begins on Monday, in a case brought by three men who were held in the US-run Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.

The jury trial, in a federal court in Virginia, comes nearly 20 years to the day that the photographs depicting torture and abuse in the prison were first revealed to the public, prompting an international scandal that came to symbolize the treatment of detainees in the US “war on terror”.

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A bloody delusion: how Iraq war led to catastrophic aftermath in Middle East

The 2003 invasion’s legacy reverberates in the emboldenment of Iran, Islamic State’s violence and the disintegration of Syria

In Baghdad’s heart of power, Iraq’s prime minister arrives at work each day in a building once used by Tariq Aziz, Saddam Hussein’s close adviser and foreign minister. The ruins of a Saddam-era defence building still teeter next door, 20 years after an American bomb crashed through its roof at the start of the invasion.

Not far away, the green dome of the Republican Palace – built on the orders of King Faisal II, then used by Iraq’s dictator before being occupied by the US army – sits on top of the still-standing totem of Iraq’s history.

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Blair asked Bush during first phone call if he could call him by first name

Archives reveal PM’s early attempts to establish personal relationship with president after 2000 US election

Tony Blair moved swiftly to place his relationship with George W Bush on a personal footing after the Republican won the 2000 US presidential election, asking him “early on” in their first telephone call if he could call him by his first name.

“Bush warmly assented (but stuck himself with addressing the prime minister as ‘Sir’),” according to a note of their call, which is among government files released to the National Archives. Blair was the first foreign leader to call to congratulate the president-elect. Michael Tatham, a British diplomat, noted that the eight-minute conversation had established “as good a rapport as one could hope for” from such a short call.

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FBI says it foiled Islamic State sympathizer’s plot to kill George W Bush

Bureau says in warrant that Ohio man Shihab Ahmed Shihab Shihab planned assassination out of revenge for Iraq war

The FBI claims an Islamic State sympathizer living in Ohio plotted to assassinate George W Bush, but confidential informants helped federal agents foil the plan, according to court records.

Details of the alleged scheme to kill the former president are laid out in a warrant that the FBI obtained in March to search the accused operative’s cellphone records, a 43-page document that was only unsealed in recent days.

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Liz Cheney mocks Trump over bizarre insult: ‘I like Republican presidents who win re-election’

Republican tweets picture just of George W Bush after Trump pac sends out image that spliced Cheney with former leader

One of the less dignified spats in US politics has rumbled onwards as the Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney responded to a bizarre insult from Donald Trump.

Related: ‘He knows he lost’: Georgia Republican opposes Trump before rally in Perry

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Kamala Harris and George W Bush call for unity on 20th anniversary of 9/11 – video

Speaking at the Shanksville memorial ceremony, Kamala Harris called for the US to come together, as passengers and crew of Flight 93 did on 9/11 to fight the hijackers. She was joined by former president George W Bush, who also criticised the divisiveness affecting the US, saying that it turns 'every argument into a clash of cultures'.

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Bush: ‘Anglo-Saxon’ ideals show pro-Trump Republicans ‘want to be extinct’

Former president speaks as lone anti-Trump Republican seeks House seat in Texas special election

Ahead of a special election on Saturday to replace a Texas congressman who died after contracting Covid-19, former president George W Bush said the ascendancy of supporters of Donald Trump suggest Republicans “want to be extinct”.

Related: George W Bush on Trump’s Republicans: ‘Isolationist, protectionist, nativist’

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George W Bush on Trump’s Republicans: ‘isolationist, protectionist, nativist’

  • Ex-president laments ‘when we scare people about immigration’
  • Bush signals he is out of step with modern Republican party
  • US politics – live coverage

George W Bush has called the Republican party under Donald Trump “isolationist, protectionist and … nativist” – a judgment unlikely to make the former US president new friends on the American right.

Related: George W Bush is back – but not all appreciate his new progressive image

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George Shultz obituary

Secretary of state to Ronald Reagan who worked with Mikhail Gorbachev to help end the cold war

Many politicians and diplomats from the 1980s lay claim to a pivotal role in ending the cold war, but the former US secretary of state George Shultz, who has died aged 100, had a better claim than most. And he was not shy in letting people know, as he did at length in his 1,184-page account of his years at the state department, Turmoil and Triumph (1993).

When he became secretary of state in 1982 – a job he was to hold for seven years – relations between the US and the Soviet Union were at a dangerous low. The administration of US president Ronald Reagan was packed with anti-Soviet hardliners. Reagan himself in 1983 dubbed the Soviet Union “the evil empire”.

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Obama, Clinton and Bush congratulate Biden on presidency – video

Former US presidents Barack Obama, George W Bush and Bill Clinton spoke together at the inauguration of Joe Biden and underlined the importance of a peaceful transfer of power. 

The former leaders highlighted the importance of listening to people with different opinions and recognising our common humanity

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Obama, Clinton and Bush pledge to take Covid vaccine on TV to show its safety

  • Trio’s pledge comes as FDA works towards vaccine approval
  • Obama: ‘If Fauci tells me this is safe … I’m going to take it’

Former US presidents Barack Obama, George W Bush and Bill Clinton have pledged to get vaccinated for coronavirus on television to promote the safety of the vaccine.

Related: US sets records for Covid deaths and hospitalizations as it nears 14m cases – live updates

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More than a second gentleman: why Doug Emhoff is Kamala Harris’ secret weapon | Hadley Freeman

I’m not obsessed with Doug, but he could probably be my pub quiz subject

There is much to say about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s historic win, but I’d like to focus on a man called Doug. Doug Emhoff is a lawyer and – more relevantly to your interests and mine – Harris’s husband, and unless you are part of the #DougHive, Doug’s devoted (and, one suspects, mainly female) fans, it’s likely you don’t know much about him.

This in itself is astonishing, given that women are generally discussed through the prism of their personal lives. I didn’t realise until last month that the young adults with whom Harris is occasionally photographed are not, as I’d assumed, her children, but rather Doug’s children and her stepchildren. Having children, or not, once defined a woman’s public image, as Theresa May could tell you, but I don’t recall a single discussion of Harris’s parental status during this campaign. Before we all celebrate this too ecstatically, Harris remains an anomaly; just try to find a single article about Amy Coney Barrett that doesn’t mention how many kids she has, and then imply that this has some bearing on her fitness for the supreme court. That Harris has largely swerved this is mainly down to her, but also down to Doug. (I know newspaper style dictates I should refer to him as Emhoff, but, really, he is such a Doug.)

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Obama, Bush and Clinton speak at funeral for congressman John Lewis – video

Former US presidents Barack Obama, George W Bush, Bill Clinton and House speaker Nancy Pelosi have delivered eulogies for congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis. Hailing him as founding father for 'a fuller, fairer, better' America, Obama praised Lewis's influence on his own path to the presidency. Clinton said Lewis believed 'none of us will be free until all of us are equal', while Bush said he lived in a better and nobler country because of the congressman


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‘Wrong then, wrong now’: US clash with Iran echoes march to Iraq war

As a new Republican president seeks re-election, senior figures in Washington warn history may be repeating itself

A Republican president facing a tough re-election campaign and widely viewed as hopelessly out of his depth. Bureaucrats itching to turn US military firepower on a Middle Eastern regime they claim without evidence is plotting an imminent attack. Compliant sections of the media that put flag-waving jingoism ahead of skeptical scrutiny.

So it was in late 2002, when President George W Bush’s administration built unstoppable momentum towards invading Iraq, promising to destroy weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that never existed. Nearly two decades later the potential target is not Iraq but Iran, with many of the same concerns over false pretexts and official lies.

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Afghanistan papers detail US dysfunction: ‘We did not know what we were doing’

A key theme of the trove of documents published this week was the lack of coherence in Washington’s approach to Afghanistan from the outset

In the midst of Barack Obama’s much-vaunted military surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2010, Hayam Mohammed, an elder from Panjwai near the Pakistani border confronted an officer from the US 101st Airborne who had come into his village.

You walk here during the day,” the elder told the soldier bitterly as the Observer listened. “But at night [the Taliban] come bringing night letters” – threats targeting those collaborating with foreign forces.

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Ross Perot: billionaire who ran for president dies aged 89

  • Perot challenged Bush and Clinton as independent in 1992
  • Texan who founded EDS also ran in 1996 for Reform party

Ross Perot, an eccentric Texan billionaire who lived a picaresque life and twice ran for president as an independent, has died. He was 89.

Related: Donald Trump: UK ambassador is 'a very stupid guy' – live updates

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The U.S. Postal Service anticipates that Monday will be its busiest…

The U.S. Postal Service anticipates that Monday will be its busiest day online, which would allow most priority and first-class to reach its destination by Thursday before any possibility of a shutdown. WASHINGTON - If Congress and the White House don't make a deal this week to stave off a partial government shutdown , Saturday - three days before Christmas - could be the start of the third shutdown since President Trump took office less than two years ago.