Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Introduction: Oil prices are weakening again
- IMF’s Great Recession warning weighs on market
European markets are falling deeper into the red this morning, as coronavirus recession fears swirl.
The FTSE 100 is now down 90 points, or 1.5%, at around 5,700 points - with similar losses in other markets.
The OBR says the UK economy could fall by 35% in the second quarter. Brutal for sure, but it also expects a very sharp bounce back. This puts it in the V-shaped recovery camp, which is an ever-decreasing circle. Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed president, said yesterday the US is in for a very sharp but hopefully short downturn.
Money managers are more pessimistic. According to Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, just 15% see a V-shaped recovery. Over half (52%) see a U-shaped recovery, where the long line along the bottom stretches on for some time, perhaps years. A fifth (22%) see a W-shaped recovery – possibly sparked by a sharp bounce back and second or third wave of infections – and 7% see the dreaded L – a long depression like the 1930s and no real recovery. The biggest tail risk is a second wave of infections, which makes the speed at which you reopen economies key. My bet, for what it’s worth, is WWW.
Newsflash: Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record amount this year -- according to industry experts.
The International Energy Agency has predicted that demand will slump by 29 million barrels per day in April -- to levels last seen in 1995 -- as the Covid-19 lockdown hits demand extremely hard.
“By lowering the peak of the supply overhang and flattening the curve of the build-up in stocks, they help a complex system absorb the worst of this crisis.
“There is no feasible agreement that could cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses. However, the past week’s achievements are a solid start.”
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