Output improves to 20-month high and job losses slow but global problems continue to restrict foreign orders
A jump in domestic orders helped pull UK factories out of almost two years of contraction last month, according to a leading business survey.
Output from the manufacturing sector improved to a 20-month high in March, marking the end of a period of shrinking activity that started in July 2022.
Continue reading...Higher borrowing costs and slump in demand contribute to 17th consecutive month of contraction
Britain’s factories started the year on a weaker footing after 17 consecutive months of contraction, as higher borrowing costs and a slump in demand took their toll.
Factory output fell by more than expected in December after a drop in orders from domestic and export clients, according to the latest snapshot from S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply.
Continue reading...America’s economy cooled last quarter, but not as much as feared, as consumer spending slowed
Earlier:
Kay Daniel Neufeld, managing economist at the CEBR thinktank, is relieved that America avoided an abrupt slowdown in the last quarter.
However, he also expects growth will be slower in 2019 - averaging 2.3% (again, below that 3% target).
Contrary to most other large economies, the US has bucked the trend and recorded faster GDP growth in 2018 than in the previous year. The weak retail sales recorded for December alarmed analysts fearing an abrupt slowdown to the US expansion in the final quarter of last year, but today’s stronger than expected GDP data suggest the December figures might have been a blip.
Nevertheless, there is little room for complacency. With the world economy slowing and the US –China trade conflict merely on hold, there are plenty of pitfalls to avoid if the US wants to achieve another stellar performance in 2019.”
The US has “proved the doubters wrong” by growing faster than expected in the last quarter of 2018, says James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist.
Here’s his take:
The details show a partial slowdown in consumer spending growth (2.8% versus 3.5% in 3Q18), but it continues to make a strong contribution. In fact, given the equity market turmoil at the time and the poor official retail sales figure for December, this isn’t a bad outcome at all.
Non-residential investment spending actually posted a decent performance, recording growth of 6.2% despite the concerns about what escalating trade tensions could mean in terms of supply chains and corporate profitability.
Continue reading...Chinese manufacturing sector declines for first time in 19 months amid new year global growth concerns
UK manufacturing activity came in significantly higher than expected at the end of 2018 thanks in part to a steep rise in stockpiling ahead of Brexit, according to a closely followed survey.
The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 54.2 in December, up from 53.1 in November, data firm IHS Markit reported. Economists had expected a slowdown to 52.5.
The rise in the PMI level during December was mainly driven by stronger inflows of new business and a solid increase in stocks of purchases. Movements in both mainly reflected Brexit preparations by manufacturers and their clients.
The European Central Bank has been busy celebrating 20 years of the euro this new year, but today it was forced to announce less pleasant news: Italian lender Banca Carige has been put in administration.
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