Hope and fear in EU as hardliner tipped to be German finance minister

Prospect of the FDP’s Christian Lindner taking charge has ‘half of Europe quaking in its boots’

Germany’s biggest neighbours are watching the formation of the country’s new government with a mixture of hope and fear, amid concerns that a fiscal hardliner hotly tipped to become the next finance minister could drag the continent back to the frosty standoffs of the eurozone crisis.

The Social Democratic party (SPD), the German Greens and the Free Democratic party (FDP) were expected to inch further towards a “traffic light” power-sharing deal on Friday, with formal coalition talks likely to start next week.

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Eurozone downturn and US jobless surge hit markets – business live

The euro area is suffering its worst contraction ever, as the French economy suffers its biggest plunge since the second world war

Britain’s FTSE 100 has just posted its worst day in a month, at the end of its best month in two years.

The blue-chip index has closed down 214 points at 5901, a drop of 3.5%. That wipes out yesterday’s rally, and half of Wednesday’s gains too!

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

Shares in Zoom have dropped over 6% today, after the video-conferencing services admitted it wasn’t quite as popular as thought...

Zoom had initially said it had 300 million daily users, following the surge in remote working. But, it actually has 300 million daily meeting participants.

Zoom shares dropped more than 7% after the company walked back on claims it has 300 million daily active users. $ZM actually reached 300m daily participants, the difference being that meeting participants can be counted more than once.https://t.co/UIVYBP9sqt

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EU strikes €500bn relief deal for countries hit hardest by pandemic

Compromise reached after Netherlands relents on ‘economic surveillance’ of beneficiary nations

A messy compromise to unlock €500bn (£438bn) of EU support for countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic has been struck after Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, warned that the existence of the bloc was at stake.

EU finance ministers on a video conference call struck a deal late on Thursday after the Netherlands shifted on a demand for “economic surveillance” of countries benefiting from €240bn of credit lines via the European stability mechanism, a bailout fund for struggling member states.

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US economy slows as growth dips to 2.6% in Q4 – business live

America’s economy cooled last quarter, but not as much as feared, as consumer spending slowed

Earlier:

Kay Daniel Neufeld, managing economist at the CEBR thinktank, is relieved that America avoided an abrupt slowdown in the last quarter.

However, he also expects growth will be slower in 2019 - averaging 2.3% (again, below that 3% target).

Contrary to most other large economies, the US has bucked the trend and recorded faster GDP growth in 2018 than in the previous year. The weak retail sales recorded for December alarmed analysts fearing an abrupt slowdown to the US expansion in the final quarter of last year, but today’s stronger than expected GDP data suggest the December figures might have been a blip.

Nevertheless, there is little room for complacency. With the world economy slowing and the US –China trade conflict merely on hold, there are plenty of pitfalls to avoid if the US wants to achieve another stellar performance in 2019.”

The US has “proved the doubters wrong” by growing faster than expected in the last quarter of 2018, says James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist.

Here’s his take:

The details show a partial slowdown in consumer spending growth (2.8% versus 3.5% in 3Q18), but it continues to make a strong contribution. In fact, given the equity market turmoil at the time and the poor official retail sales figure for December, this isn’t a bad outcome at all.

Non-residential investment spending actually posted a decent performance, recording growth of 6.2% despite the concerns about what escalating trade tensions could mean in terms of supply chains and corporate profitability.

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Davos 2019: Mental health in focus; Abe, Merkel and Qishan speak – live

Rolling coverage of the second day of the World Economic Forum, as Shinzo Abe, Angela Merkel and Wang Qishan all speak, and Prince William discusses mental health

At the Sustainable Development panel, Bono says capitalism has lifted people out of poverty, but warns:

“It is a wild beast. If it is not tamed it can chew up a lot of people along the way.”

@Lagarde says to close the development gap and achieve the SDGs, we need growth first. Secondly, domestic revenue mobilisation needs to increase, and thirdly there can be no white elephants and no corruption, which put off investors. #wef19

Just in: UK chancellor Philip Hammond has dropped off a Davos panel scheduled for Friday morning, on the state of the global economy, we hear.

He’s no longer listed as a speaker for the “Global Economy in Transition: Shaping a New Architecture” session, alongside the World Bank’s Kristalina Georgieva, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago, economics professor Mariana Mazzucato, IMF chief Christine Lagarde and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan.

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