Boris Johnson: chances of no-deal Brexit are ‘a million-to-one against’

Tory leadership frontrunner’s claim comes one day after he said UK will leave EU ‘come what may, do or die’

Boris Johnson has said the chances of a no-deal Brexit are a “million-to-one against”, despite promising to leave on 31 October whether or not he has managed to strike a new agreement with the European Union.

Johnson, the frontrunner to be prime minister, told a hustings that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were vanishingly small, as he believed there was a mood in the EU and among MPs to pass a new Brexit deal.

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Jeremy Hunt says Boris Johnson can’t be trusted on Brexit promises

Foreign secretary says Conservative leadership rival cannot fulfil promises

Jeremy Hunt has suggested there is “no trust” in Boris Johnson to fulfil his promises on Brexit, telling the BBC he believes he has the better personality to be prime minister.

Speaking after a war of words with his Conservative leadership rival, whom Hunt branded a coward for turning down a debate with him on Sky News on Tuesday night, Hunt said 31 October was a “fake deadline” and could lead to a snap general election.

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Brexit: alternative to Irish backstop ‘feasible in three years’

Report on keeping border open, backed by Nicky Morgan and Greg Hands, suggests special economic zones

Alternative arrangements for keeping the Irish border open in the event of a no-deal Brexit or the collapse of future trade talks with the EU could be up and running within three years, a report concludes.

The interim report by a non-government organisation calling itself the Alternative Arrangements Commission will be unveiled at a special conference on the Irish border in London on Monday.

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Tory faithful trust Johnson more than Hunt, says poll

Conservative voters regard the favourite as better at making decisions and negotiation

Boris Johnson is more trusted by Tory members to make big decisions and negotiate with the EU than Jeremy Hunt – as well as being regarded as more competent than the current foreign secretary – according to the latest Opinium poll for The Observer.

The findings reinforce Johnson’s position as the strong favourite to succeed Theresa May when Tory party members vote on who should be the next prime minister in the coming weeks. Last week Conservative MPs voted to send Johnson and Hunt into the final round of the contest.

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Catastrophic failure of the war on drugs | Letter

This vast unethical trade is co-created by politicians, including President Duque of Colombia, who back a policy of global prohibition, writes Danny Kushlick

In time-honoured fashion we see the tired trope of cocaine users’ responsibility for violence in Colombia (Colombian president says middle-class cocaine users are hypocrites, 18 June). It is 10 years since the UK and Colombian governments launched their “Shared Responsibility” campaign to highlight links between users and the criminal trade. It was dropped because it was ineffective in reducing demand. This most recent call will have little or no effect on demand, but does serve politicians’ need to distract citizens from the catastrophic failure of the so-called “war on drugs”.

Anyone who buys illegal drugs does contribute to the criminal market. However, this vast unethical trade is co-created by politicians, including President Duque of Colombia, who back a policy of global prohibition. Duque’s predecessor, President Santos, said he would consider legalising cocaine in 2011, and is now a member of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which collectively supports the legal regulation of drug markets. Unless and until policymakers begin to seriously engage with the issue of who controls the international drug trade, we cannot make progress in reducing opportunities for organised crime and improving international development and security.
Danny Kushlick
Head of external affairs, Transform

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UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia unlawful, court of appeal declares

Ruling prompts government to suspend new arms sales to Saudi Arabia while it urgently reviews its processes

British arms sales to Saudi Arabia have been declared unlawful by the court of appeal because ministers failed to properly assess their contribution to civilian casualties in indiscriminate bombing in Yemen.

The unexpected ruling has prompted the British government to suspend new arms sales to Saudi Arabia while it urgently reviews its processes – although Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, has said the government would also seek to appeal.

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Boris Johnson’s plan means no-deal Brexit or election, says Jeremy Hunt

Foreign secretary says it is wrong to commit rigidly to leaving the EU by 31 October

Jeremy Hunt has said the Brexit deadline of 31 October should not be a “hard stop” and that Boris Johnson is posing a “stark choice”, between leaving the EU without a deal and a general election.

As the five remaining rivals to Boris Johnson prepare for a televised debate on Sunday evening, Hunt warned it would be wrong to commit now to leave the EU by Halloween, come what may.

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Varadkar: removing Irish backstop would be as bad as no-deal Brexit

Taoiseach wants to keep a guarantee there will be no return to hard borders

Leo Varadkar has said that removing the border backstop would be as bad for Ireland as a no-deal Brexit.

Some contenders to replace Theresa May as prime minister, including frontrunner Boris Johnson, have proposed changes to the policy.

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Jeremy Corbyn: no ‘credible evidence’ of Iran role in tanker attacks

Labour leader urges UK to ease tensions in Gulf after Foreign Office links blasts to Tehran

Jeremy Corbyn has called for the government to abstain from escalating tensions with Iran without “credible evidence” that Tehran was responsible for attacks on two oil tankers.

The Labour leader said Britain risked increasing the threat of war after the Foreign Office (FCO) said it was “almost certain” in its assessment that “a branch of the Iranian military … attacked the two tankers on 13 June”.

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Channel 4 to ’empty chair’ Boris Johnson at Tory leadership TV debate

Frontrunner refuses invite, but will take part in a similar BBC-hosted event two days later

Boris Johnson will be represented by an empty podium in a television debate on Sunday night as his five remaining rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister fight it out for a place alongside him in the ballot of Conservative members.

The former foreign secretary declined an invitation to participate in the Channel 4 leadership debate, saying he feared it would be “cacophonous”.

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Russia is not alone in exploiting Africa | Letters

Tracey Lindner says the scramble for Africa is largely about securing resources that are crucial for military and civilian digital technology. Terry McGinn shines a spotlight on the US

Foreign involvement in Africa is far from unique to Russia (Leaked documents reveal Russia’s efforts to exert influence in Africa, 12 June). The new scramble for Africa involves more powers than the first round over a century ago. This time it’s in part about securing resources such as oil, gas and rare earth metals crucial for military and civilian digital technology, and denying these resources to rival powers.

The United States Africa Command (Africom) now has 7,500 American troops active in all but one African country, up from 6,000 in 2017. Apart from its huge base in Djibouti, controlling the narrow strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a vital chokepoint through which all shipping using the Suez Canal has to pass – most importantly (for the Americans) Chinese shipping – the US has constructed small “lily pad” bases, whose presence gives the US a strong military capability.

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MPs’ no-deal vote – what does this mean for Brexit?

An attempt to block the UK leaving without a deal was defeated on Wednesday, so can no deal still be stopped?

Have MPs missed their last chance to block a no-deal Brexit?

Not quite. Labour seized the opportunity for action on Wednesday because they had been allotted an opposition day debate – an opportunity to decide what MPs discuss and vote on.

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Boris Johnson allowed arms sales to Saudis after Yemen bombing

Former foreign secretary accused of showing ‘total disregard’ for civilians

Tory leadership frontrunner Boris Johnson recommended that the UK allow Saudi Arabia to buy British bomb parts expected to be deployed in Yemen, days after an airstrike on a potato factory in the country had killed 14 people in 2016.

Campaigners accused the then foreign secretary of showing a “total disregard” for Yemeni civilians by allowing the sales, revealed for the first time in emails disclosed via a freedom of information request.

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Boris Johnson accused of cowardice as he dodges public scrutiny

Tory leadership frontrunner avoids interviews and refuses to commit to TV hustings

Boris Johnson has been accused of “not having the guts to face the people” in the Conservative leadership race, coming under fire for dodging interviews and refusing to confirm his participation in a BBC debate with other candidates.

Johnson, the clear frontrunner with MPs and the Tory membership, was implicitly criticised by several of his rivals who said the race must put all the candidates under proper scrutiny.

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‘Prejudiced’ Home Office refusing visas to African researchers

Academics invited to the UK are refused entry on arbitrary and ‘insulting’ grounds

The Home Office is being accused of institutional racism and damaging British research projects through increasingly arbitrary and “insulting” visa refusals for academics.

In April, a team of six Ebola researchers from Sierra Leone were unable to attend vital training in the UK, funded by the Wellcome Trust as part of a £1.5m flagship pandemic preparedness programme. At the LSE Africa summit, also in April, 24 out of 25 researchers were missing from a single workshop. Shortly afterwards, the Save the Children centenary events were marred by multiple visa refusals of key guests.

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Trump officials snub strongman Khalifa Haftar as US shifts course on Libya

Administration gives Libyan National Army chief cold shoulder less than two months after Trump showed support in surprise call

The Trump administration has given the cold shoulder to Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, less than two months after Trump appeared to show support for him in a surprise phone call, and is now rethinking its policy towards the country’s civil war, according to multiple sources in the US and the region.

Encouraged by the 15 April call, Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) hired lobbyists in Washington in the hope of arranging an official visit by the field marshal, who is a dual Libyan-US national, or one of his top aides, to reinforce the impression that he had US backing in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli.

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Trump’s family holiday to UK Disneyland makes for painful viewing | John Crace

With sketch writers banned from his press conference with Theresa May, I was forced to endure it on TV

Sometimes I worry I am more psychically connected to Tottenham Hotspur than is healthy. Having done my two events at the Hay festival, I went back to the friends I was staying with to watch the Champions League final. Only to find they didn’t have BT Sport and their internet connection was patchy at best. So I ended up viewing the game on my iPad with a screen that kept buffering and then freezing. Which of course was entirely appropriate, because buffering and freezing appeared to be Spurs’ main game plan. The biggest match in the club’s history, against a team playing well below its best, and Spurs also chose to have a complete off day. Even down to giving away a dodgy penalty inside the first minute. You can’t get more Spursy than that. It almost made me proud. Still, there was one upside. The two friends, Matthew and Terry, who ended up using my tickets kept me updated with photos throughout their trip, from their arrival in Toulouse to their eight-hour car journey to Madrid to their picnic on the beach on the way back. What struck me most was that they were both smiling in every shot. Something I would never have managed. I would have been sick with anxiety before the game and acutely depressed after it. There was no avoiding it. The right two people went to the game. Though it was a little upsetting to realise all my friends almost certainly have a better time without me.

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UK politics has changed for ever. The main parties must adapt or die | Letters

Party loyalty is a thing of the past, writes Alan Taylor, while Peter Muchlinski says that the political future requires replacing the residual elements of the ‘growth society’, with the ‘sustainable society’. Plus letters from Andrew Graystone and William Wallace

So, Boris Johnson fears that the Conservatives may face extinction if they delay Brexit (Report, 5 June). He may be right, on this at least, but for the wrong reasons. The fact is that the decline of the Conservatives, and of Labour, is a long-term process which began 60 years ago and may only now have reached its culmination. Both main parties have underestimated the consequences of this decline. The result is that the transformation in party voting seen in the Euro elections and since may be permanent.

British politics has long been seen as dominated by two big parties, each with a block of loyal supporters, and a small number of “floating” voters between them. This was an accurate picture of elections in the early 1950s, when over 80% of the electorate voted Labour or Tory. But this two-party domination began to weaken from the late 50s, a trend that has continued ever since. Turnout fell as fewer people were enthused by the main parties. The growth of this pool of unattached electors gave space for Liberal and Liberal/SDP “revivals”, the growth of nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, and now the rise of the Green party and the Ukip/Farage phenomenon.

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Trump urges May to ‘stick around’ to finalise ‘very, very substantial’ US-UK trade deal – live news

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including the second day of President Trump’s state visit to Britain and his press conference with Theresa May

Judging by the interview that President Trump gave to the Sun and the Sunday Times before he came to the UK, his view of people tends to be shaped to a considerable extent by whether or not they have praised him. (“I think [Boris Johnson would be excellent. I like him. I have always liked him ... He has been very positive about me and our country.”)

On that basis, Trump’s meeting with Michael Gove later (see 10.55am and 12.07pm) is likely to go well. I have been rereading Gove’s write-up of his interview with Trump in January 2017 (paywall) and it’s not exactly a hatchet job. Here’s an extract.

Ever since a Virginia farmer called George Washington launched his bid for glory, the British have had a tendency to underestimate American presidents. Especially Republicans. When Abraham Lincoln was in the White House, our government sympathised with the Confederacy. When Ronald Reagan was commander-in-chief, the British foreign policy establishment derided him as a trigger-happy cowboy who was in danger of pitching us into a third world war.

But no Republican, indeed no president, has come to office facing anything like the level of scorn and condescension from British politicians and commentators as Mr Trump. When we talked last Friday, however, he had nothing but kind words and generous sentiments for a nation he believes will be his strongest ally ...

More from my colleague Damien Gayle on why people are protesting against Trump.

"Today I am a [chlorinated] chicken."@GlobalJusticeUK activist Jelly Cleaver, from Brixton, on why protesters against the #TrumpUKVisit don't want US trade deals after #Brexit pic.twitter.com/rAmx3lhRZr

"Trump is a beacon for neoliberalism and racist policies. He's not standing up for the interests of working people."@RMTunion activist John Reid, 65, right, on why he's protesting the #TrumpUKVisit #TrumpProtest #Trump pic.twitter.com/FqjnmWkpvf

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41-gun salutes and a Twitter tirade: Donald Trump arrives in UK

US president attends Buckingham Palace banquet after starting state visit with angry tweets

  • Follow all the latest on Trump’s visit with our live blog

Donald Trump breezed into Britain by launching an attack on London’s mayor and berating so-called fake news before being honoured with a glittering banquet hosted by the Queen.

Buckingham Palace provided the sumptuous backdrop for the US president, who had long desired the endorsement of an official state visit, and took the opportunity to bring four of his five children with him.

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