The polls point to a Labor win, but its primary vote is barely moving – can both things be true?

Labor’s confidence going into Saturday’s election is tempered by gnawing anxiety about the underlying polling data

Australia’s major parties are headed for a historically low primary vote, continuing a downward trend of several decades, according to the latest from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker. Labor leads the Coalition 51.5-48.5 on the two-party-preferred measure according to our latest average, although there is still uncertainty in the polling.

The two-party-preferred vote has been trending towards a repeat of the last election, but this masks a more than two-point primary vote drop for both major parties. The votes lost by the major parties have gone “everywhere”, according to pollsters who spoke to Guardian Australia. Our model estimates the support for independents and minor parties is four points higher than at the last election.

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Labor far outspends Coalition and Clive Palmer on Google and Meta ads amid calls for change to blackout laws

Analysis of online ad data shows parties and affiliated groups spent more than $39m for political ads across Facebook, YouTube and Google search since 28 March

Labor splurged more than $11m across Google and Meta platforms to win votes, far surpassing its opponents – including billionaire Clive Palmer – and outstripping political foes in key seats in the lead-up to polling day.

New data showed the major parties have poured cash into boosting targeted messages to social media users in tightly contested electorates, including marginal seats in Bennelong, Brisbane, Boothby, Blair and Bullwinkel.

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As Australia heads to the polls, big parties brace for rise of independents

The soft, undecided and swinging voters are at an all-time high in Australia, while support for the centre-left Labor and conservative-leaning Coalition is low

More than 18 million Australians will head to the polls this Saturday to choose between the incumbent centre-left Labor party and its conservative-leaning Liberal/National Coalition challenger.

But about one in three voters will brush off the major contenders – led by the current prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and the opposition leader, Peter Dutton – in favour of someone else altogether, in an election marked by a cost of living crisis and the spectre of Donald Trump.

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Dutton says Labor’s super plan is a ‘quasi inheritance tax’. What’s going on?

Many countries impose a form of inheritance tax on deceased estates, but does Albanese’s policy fit the bill?

Peter Dutton has described Labor’s plan to reduce tax breaks on superannuation balances larger than $3m as a “quasi inheritance tax”.

The description was made days out from polling day, as the major parties tore apart their opponent’s policies in a last-ditch effort to win votes.

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Australia election 2025 live: Peter Dutton to reveal Coalition policy costings; house prices rise again

Coalition claims it will save $10bn more over four years compared with Labor. Follow today’s news live

Good morning and welcome to our live election blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will take over.

Our top story this morning is on the “handshake” deal by the Nationals to move One Nation up its preference list that could help win the New South Wales electorate of Hunter. The deal has been made despite Pauline Hanson’s candidate being known for calling public health officials “little Hitlers” and promoting a conspiracy theory that the climate crisis has been used to control every aspect of people’s lives.

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Donald Trump says he ‘will be talking’ to Australia’s prime minister about tariffs

US president indicated he was aware Anthony Albanese has been pushing for an exemption to trade barriers

Donald Trump says he will speak to the Australian prime minister about trade, telling reporters he knows the Australian government has been trying to contact him.

Australia goes to a federal election on Saturday and while the incumbent, Anthony Albanese, is favoured to win, Trump could be dealing with an alternative prime minister after the weekend.

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Coalition coy on curriculum changes despite Dutton’s claims of student ‘indoctrination’

Coalition’s outline of changes to national curriculum based on ‘critical thinking’ and ‘common sense’ is yet to be revealed

The Coalition has refused to detail changes it would make to the national curriculum after Peter Dutton said students were being “indoctrinated” and pledged in his budget reply speech to “restore” a curriculum focused on “critical thinking, responsible citizenship, and common sense”.

Dutton has made repeated references to the education system in recent weeks, including floating on Sky News placing a “condition” on funding to ensure kids weren’t “guided by some sort of an agenda that’s come out of universities” and pledging “we need to stop the teaching of some of the curriculum that says that our children should be ashamed of being Australian” in the Channel 7 debate.

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Guardian Essential poll: Labor leads Coalition in final pre-election poll as Dutton’s approval rating slips further

Poll also finds most Australians voting based on who will leave them better off in three years – rather than comparing situation to three years ago

Anthony Albanese holds an election-winning lead with just days left of the campaign, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, with Labor leading the Coalition 52% to 48% on a two-party basis.

Albanese’s approval ratings have ticked up slightly since the last poll two weeks ago, but Peter Dutton’s has slipped for the fourth poll in a row, with the Liberal leader’s public standing dropping as the campaign has progressed. The Essential poll shows more people have switched their support to Labor because of the campaign over recent weeks, and that two-thirds of Australians say they’re voting based on who will leave them better off in three years – rather than comparing their situation to where it was three years ago.

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Labor says the CSIRO put a $600bn price tag on Coalition’s nuclear dreams. It’s not quite right

Number comes from the Smart Energy Council (SEC), a renewable energy industry group, almost six months before Coalition modelling

Labor’s campaign spokesperson, frontbencher Jason Clare, claimed on Monday that CSIRO had put a $600bn price tag on the Coalition’s plans to build taxpayer-funded nuclear reactors at seven sites.

“Have a look at the work that the CSIRO has done that proves that this will cost $600bn. It won’t turn a light on for 20 years. It’ll only produce about 4% of the energy that Australia is going to need,” Clare told ABC Radio National.

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Leaders’ debate live updates: Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton meet in final election debate

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Mark Riley asked each leader what the Australian dream looks like for an average Australian in the property market today?

Peter Dutton said it “looks like a nightmare” and blamed the matter on migration:

When you bring a million people in they want a house for their kids and their family, fair enough, but what we’ve seen is Australians being displaced from home ownership, and our young Australians now, saving harder than ever, paying more rent than ever. They’re locked out of the market.

We are concentrating on supply, not just demand, because we know that’s the key going forward.

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Dutton listens to locals sharing crime stories in NT; heavy rain to hit northern NSW – as it happened

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Albanese says climate change is an “economic issue, not just an environmental one”.

He is asked about the rising pressure of home insurance for families. The prime minister responds:

We’ll continue to do what we can there. One of the things that obviously is having an impact is the increased number of extreme weather events. That’s why climate change needs to be considered to be an economic issue, not just an environmental one. Because there are economic costs to it.

Everyone who is here has been through screening … Let’s be clear about the suggestions that have been made on a range of occasions, aimed at promoting division in Australian society and in Australian debate. They’ve been made by the Coalition. They simply just don’t stack up.

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Peter Dutton urges respect for welcome to country but reaffirms stance on ‘one flag’ only

Opposition leader repeats condemnation of dawn service interruptions but says if he wins election he won’t display Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island flags at press conferences

Peter Dutton says he wants welcome to country ceremonies respected even as he reaffirms his push to unite Australians under “one flag”.

Dutton made the comments after disruptions at Anzac Day services and the sudden cancellation of a welcome to country ceremony at a major NRL match in Melbourne.

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Peter Dutton urges respect for welcome to country but reaffirms stance on ‘one flag’ only

Opposition leader repeats condemnation of dawn service interruptions but says if he wins election he won’t display Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island flags at press conferences

Peter Dutton says he wants welcome to country ceremonies respected even as he reaffirms his push to unite Australians under “one flag”.

Dutton made the comments after disruptions at Anzac Day services and the sudden cancellation of a welcome to country ceremony at a major NRL match in Melbourne.

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EVs to cost more under a Coalition government, after Dutton’s apparent backflip on popular tax break

Polestar says Dutton’s move shows ‘a complete lack of understanding of the significant cost-of-living, climate and health benefits of EVs’

Electric vehicles would cost more under a Coalition government, after Peter Dutton confirmed he would scrap a popular tax break for EV drivers in an apparent backflip that has caused confusion and anger among clean car advocates.

The initiative, which was introduced by the Albanese government in 2022, has meant if a person buys an EV priced under $91,387 through a novated lease program via their employer (when a lease is paid off through pre-taxed salary deductions) they do not have to pay fringe benefits tax (FBT) – even if the car is only for personal use.

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Albanese condemns Dutton’s pledge for mass public service cuts ‘only in Canberra’

Opposition leader’s comments suggest close to two-thirds of capital’s public service roles – which include many key agencies – would be slashed

Peter Dutton has pledged to cut almost two-thirds of Canberra’s federal public servants if elected, in a move Anthony Albanese has criticised as “outrageous”.

In a testy press conference in Tasmania on Thursday morning, the opposition leader batted away questions about not visiting a single proposed nuclear power station site, as well as confusion over shifting positions on migration targets, tax breaks for electric vehicles and Coalition support for recognising West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

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Exclusion zones: is Peter Dutton’s campaign avoiding proposed nuclear power sites?

The opposition leader says he ‘won’t be able to get to all’ of the seven locations earmarked for flagship nuclear policy, while Labor says he has not been within 50km of any during election campaign

Peter Dutton is avoiding visiting any of the seven sites for his proposed nuclear reactors, Anthony Albanese and the Labor party claim, arguing the issue has become “radioactive” for the Coalition.

The Liberal leader says he is still committed to nuclear power, even as he concedes it may not be “politically popular”.

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Trade unionists, conservationists and church groups unite against Dutton’s nuclear plan

Seven Regions Nuclear Free alliance launches campaign representing groups who oppose the Coalition’s proposed nuclear reactors in their communities across Queensland, NSW, SA, Victoria and WA

Trade unions, conservationists, First Nations groups, church congregations and community organisations have launched a coordinated campaign against opposition leader Peter Dutton’s plan for nuclear reactors across Australia.

The Coalition has pledged, if elected, to build seven nuclear reactors to replace retiring or retired coal sites naming Tarong and Callide in Queensland, Liddell and Mount Piper in New South Wales, Port Augusta in South Australia, Loy Yang in Victoria, and Muja in Western Australia.

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Coalition promises crackdown on ‘drugs and thugs’ as polls continue to favour Labor

Opposition expected to use final two weeks of the campaign to focus on the traditionally safe grounds of national security, crime and defence

The Coalition would crack down on “drugs and thugs” with a new policy pledge including tougher narcotics laws and a new disclosure scheme to help parents “unmask” sex offenders who may be in contact with their children.

Peter Dutton said an elected Coalition government would spend $750m on its so-called Operation Safer Communities plan, to include tightened border security and safety laws, extra funding for police and investigators, and detection of illicit drugs.

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‘Propaganda’: Albanese mocks Russia’s ‘you have no cards’ warning to Australia

Incendiary letter by Moscow’s envoy says Australians should be more concerned about US bases on their soil than a Russian base in Indonesia

Russian warnings to Australia that “you have no cards” to stop Russian military activity in the Indo-Pacific have been mocked by Anthony Albanese, who has dismissed an incendiary letter from an ambassador as authoritarian “propaganda”.

The unsubstantiated spectre of a proposed Russian military airbase on Indonesian territory has loomed over the past week of Australia’s federal election campaign, with the opposition accusing the government of obfuscating and dodging questions, and the government responding that the opposition had misrepresented the Indonesian government and actively fanned Russian propaganda.

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‘Bordering on incredible’: Coalition under fire for planning to scrap Labor climate policies and offering none of its own

With Peter Dutton’s views on climate change in the spotlight, the focus has turned onto whether there will be any policies to reduce emissions in the next decade

The Coalition is refusing to say if it will introduce any policies to cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade as it pledges to unwind most climate measures introduced under Labor.

Peter Dutton’s position on the climate crisis came under scrutiny last week after he gave contradictory answers on whether he accepted mainstream climate science. Asked during a leaders’ debate on the ABC whether extreme weather events were worsening, the opposition leader said: “I don’t know because I’m not a scientist”.

Dropping a Labor goal of 82% of electricity coming from renewable generation by 2030 and slowing the roll out of solar and wind farms, in part by scrapping a “rewiring the nation” fund to build new transmission connections. Instead, it says the country would rely on more fossil fuels – coal and gas-fired power – until it could lift a ban on nuclear energy and build taxpayer-owned nuclear generators, mostly after 2040.

Abolishing fines for car companies that do not meet targets to cut the average emissions from the new cars they sell.

Not supporting Labor’s 2030 emissions reduction target. Former diplomats say lowering the target would put Australia in breach of commitments made in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Opposing a joint Australia-Pacific bid to host a major UN climate summit in Adelaide next year.

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