Trump versus trade: the global economic outlook for 2025 in five charts

Unpredictable change will sweep through America, while old problems, from war to inflation, are likely to afflict other countries

The global economy is entering the new year with rising geopolitical tensions looming over its prospects, as the world’s leading central banks attempt to cut interest rates after the worst inflation shock in decades.

Donald Trump’s second term in the White House is expected to dominate the economic agenda. Global trade tensions are on the horizon as the president-elect threatens to impose sweeping tariffs on US imports.

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Keir Starmer pays tribute to brother who died on Boxing Day

Nick Starmer, 60, who had cancer, ‘met all the challenges life threw at him with courage and good humour’, says PM

Keir Starmer has paid tribute to his brother Nick, who had cancer and died on Boxing Day aged 60.

Starmer said in a statement: “My brother Nick was a wonderful man. He met all the challenges life threw at him with courage and good humour. We will miss him very much.

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Keir Starmer pays tribute to brother who died on Boxing Day

Nick Starmer, 60, who had cancer, ‘met all the challenges life threw at him with courage and good humour’, says PM

Keir Starmer has paid tribute to his brother Nick, who had cancer and died on Boxing Day aged 60.

Starmer said in a statement: “My brother Nick was a wonderful man. He met all the challenges life threw at him with courage and good humour. We will miss him very much.

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Starmer accuses Whitehall of being comfortable with failure in landmark speech

Prime minister sets out milestones for delivery but faces claims of watering down targets and ignoring immigration

Keir Starmer accused Whitehall of becoming comfortable with failure as he challenged civil servants to hit a series of policy targets and deliver on 150 “major infrastructure projects”.

Ushering in the “next phase” for the five-month-old Labour government, the prime minister urged “a profound cultural shift away from a declinist mentality” and a relentless focus on getting things done.

Higher real household disposable income and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by the end of this parliament, as part of a long-term aim to make the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy.

Building 1.5m homes in England and fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major economic infrastructure projects.

Putting the UK “on track” to achieve at least 95% clean power by 2030.

Meeting the NHS standard of 92% of patients in England waiting no longer than 18 weeks for elective care.

Getting a record 75% of five-year-olds ready to learn when they start school.

A named police officer for every beat, and 13,000 extra neighbourhood police officers for England and Wales.

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Keir Starmer says new ‘milestones’ on living standards, NHS and more are ‘almighty challenge’ – as it happened

Prime minister makes speech intended to to show Labour government is ‘delivering change’

Starmer says there is record dissatisfaction with the NHS. The public insititutions but that they are not beyond repair.

Says this is great nation and we are rediscovering that we can do new things and we can deliver the change that they voted.

The purpose of this government is to make our public services work. It’s cause that demands the full power of government.

Starmer is up. Opening gambit is a swipe at Kemi Badenoch: the leader of the opposition thinks if you do a couple of shifts in McDonald’s you can become working-class.

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Starmer seeks to relaunch premiership with new promise to crack down on crime

After a rocky start, PM sets out ‘next phase’ covering economic growth, NHS backlogs, energy, and a ‘bobby on every beat’

Keir Starmer will attempt to reset his premiership with a series of pledges to show he is “delivering change”, including 13,000 extra neighbourhood police and a named “bobby on every beat”.

In a speech Labour hopes will set out the “next phase” of government, the prime minister will detail half a dozen “milestone” targets covering living standards, NHS backlogs, secure energy, housebuilding and children’s readiness for school.

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MPs back PR bill in vote, a symbolic win for electoral reform campaigners – UK politics live

MPs vote to give leave to bring in private members’ bill on PR but it will have no practical effect

Lord Robertson, the former Labour defence secretary and former Nato secretary who is leading the government’s strategic defence review, is giving evidence to the Commons defence committee. He has told MPs that the Americans are being fully consulted about the review. This is from Shashank Joshi, the Economist’s defence editor.

Listening to George Robertson & Richard Barrons, who are writing the UK’s defence review alongside Fiona Hill, giving evidence to the Commons defence committee. They’re in “constant contact” with allies, Robertson says, and have a US officer on the review team.

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Starmer rejects false choice between Trump’s US and EU in key speech

At lord mayor’s banquet in London, British PM says ‘national interest demands that we work with both’

Keir Starmer has “utterly rejected” the idea that the UK must choose between the United States and Europe when Donald Trump comes to power, arguing that it is in the national interest to work with both.

The prime minister said the UK would “never turn away” from its relationship with the US, despite the difficulties the new administration could pose, as it had been the “cornerstone” of security and prosperity for over a century.

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UK politics live: Labour under pressure over housing and waiting list targets

Health bosses reportedly concerned about government’s focus while council leaders are said to believe building targets are unrealistic

Keir Starmer’s “plan for change” being unveiled later this week (see 9.26am) will involve sidelining the mission pledge to deliver the highest sustained growth in the G7, Ben Riley-Smith from the Telegraph reports.

New targets on living standards will be unveiled by Keir Starmer on Thursday

Is being seen as a sidelining of his big economic pledge - getting the highest growth in the G7

The problem with the ‘highest sustained growth in G7’ target is Starmer of course doesn’t control the economies of US, Aus, Canada, Germany, France, Japan

US growing way faster now: 2.8% estimate for 2024 vs 1.1% for UK

For the new living standards target real household disposable income and GDP per capita have been considered.

The new promise will likely have the benefit of not being a pledge to beat other countries.

Note the nuance. The G7 target remains. It will likely be mentioned in the ‘Plan For Change’ document unveiled on Thurs and Starmer’s speech

But a new major economic pledge will now be unveiled which in the coming years is likely to be talked about much more than the G7 ambition

Councils are committed to keeping tenants and residents safe, and are keen to work with government to drive the pace of remediation.

However, for local government to carry out enforcement and addressing cladding issues as effectively and quickly as possible, multi-year funding arrangements are needed.

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NHS bosses reportedly worried about Starmer’s pledge to cut waiting lists

PM expected to set target to carry out 92% of routine operations and appointments within 18 weeks

NHS bosses are said to be privately concerned about Keir Starmer’s ambitious targets to cut waiting lists for routine operations, set to be announced later this week, which will also include specific targets on living standards and housebuilding.

The prime minister is expected on Thursday to set a target for 92% of routine operations and appointments to be carried out within 18 weeks, one that has not been achieved in almost a decade, the Times has reported.

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Zelenskyy says Ukrainian territory should be under ‘Nato umbrella’ to stop war

President suggests bringing Kyiv-controlled land into western military pact could stop ‘hot stage’ of war

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that Ukrainian territory under his control should be taken under the “Nato umbrella” to try to stop the “hot stage” of the war with Russia.

Speaking to Sky News, the Ukrainian president said that such a proposal has “never been considered” by Ukraine because it has never “officially” been offered.

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Louise Haigh quits as transport secretary after admitting conviction for misleading police over stolen mobile – UK politics live

Transport secretary departs after it emerged she pleaded guilty to incorrectly telling police that a work mobile phone was stolen in 2013

In her resignation letter Louise Haigh said little about the past conviction, now spent, that led to her resignation. But she gave a fuller statement yesterday when approached by reporters about the story. She said:

In 2013 I was mugged while on a night out. I was a young woman and the experience was terrifying.

I reported it to the police and gave them a list of what I believed had been taken - including a work mobile phone that had been issued by my employer.

Louise Haigh has done the right thing in resigning. It is clear she has failed to behave to the standards expected of an MP.

In her resignation letter, she states that Keir Starmer was already aware of the fraud conviction, which raises questions as to why the prime minister appointed Ms Haigh to Cabinet with responsibility for a £30bn budget? The onus is now on Keir Starmer to explain this obvious failure of judgment to the British public.

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Keir Starmer gives speech on migration after record figures for 2023 revealed – UK politics live

Prime minister holds press conference to announce plans as ONS announces net migration figures

Here is a chart from the ONS report illustrating the latest figures.

Here is the PA Media story on the figures.

Net migration to the UK hit a higher than previously thought record of 906,000 in the year to June 2023, revised official estimates show.

The measure for the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country then dropped by 20% in the latest period, the 12 months to June 2024, and now stands at 728,000.

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Starmer: record net migration shows Tories ran ‘open borders experiment’

PM says previous government ‘deliberately liberalised’ post-Brexit immigration as he announces deal with Iraq

Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of running an “open borders experiment” after new figures showed that net migration to the UK hit a record high of nearly 1 million in a period covering Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak’s administrations.

The prime minister announced a deal with Iraq to tackle people-smugglers and a white paper to overhaul the visa system, before demanding “an explanation” from Kemi Badenoch for her party’s decision to “deliberately liberalise immigration” after the Brexit vote.

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Russia imposes travel ban on cabinet ministers, calling it retaliation for ‘Russophobic’ policies – UK politics live

Kremlin bans UK cabinet ministers including Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Yveette Cooper from entering country

The Federation of Small Businesses applauds the ambition in the government’s Get Britain Working, but says that overcoming the “pervasive poverty of ambition” about employment in the public sector won’t be easy. This is from Tina McKenzie, the FSB’s policy chair.

This is a start – but only a start – in fixing the pervasive poverty of ambition in the Jobcentre, health and other state systems when it comes to getting people back into work. Increasing employment is ultimately the most sure-fire way to drive up living standards and economic growth.

Ministers have a huge job to persuade public institutions that work is good for health and that everyone who needs work should be helped to get a job or start-up in self-employment – not least getting rid of the idea that the only good work is in graduate jobs, the public sector or volunteering.

The ambition behind the 80 per cent employment target is both clear and important ..

To deliver on this policy agenda, government and small businesses must work in partnership to drive real change through the whole employment system and make sure the country is helping those who most need work.

It is right to ensure that young people who are seeking work are helped to find a job or training. Positive early experiences in the jobs market are vital for young people’s future life chances. They must be supported to take part, not faced with self-defeating sanctions.

Success will also depend on ministers making the investment that’s needed in health services and quality training. Jobcentre staff must have a central role in redesigning their services, and devolution must never come at the cost of staff terms and conditions.

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UK politics live: safeguarding minister Jess Phillips urges people to intervene if women are being harassed in public

Phillips says people have to be mindful of their own safety but ‘you can definitely ask if someone is alright’

Q: Are you feeling the pressure? There is a petition signed by 2 million people calling for another election.

Starmer says he is not surprised that people who did not support Labour in the first place want the election to be re-run. But that is not how the system worked.

I’m not surprised, quite frankly, that as we’re doing the tough stuff, there are plenty of people who say, ‘Well, I’m impacted.’

I think anybody who’s turned around an organisation or a business will tell you, and they’re right, if you’re really going to turn something around, you have to do the hard yards upfront. Don’t look at a tough decision and then leave it for a year or two.

So we’re doing the tough stuff. But in the budget, which is probably the toughest, I’m really pleased that we were able to put so much money into the National Health Service … Anybody watching this who uses the NHS will know we absolutely had to make that a priority.

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Trump depends on the EU and UK to act as peacemakers more than he thinks

The US doesn’t need to spend more on Ukraine. Britain can bring funding to the table – and help Trump reboot alliances

With Donald Trump the very meaning of words is up for negotiation. What does he really mean when he promises to “build a wall”? When he pledges to end the Russo-Ukrainian war in one day?

His supporters say they don’t take him literally but seriously – but who decides what “serious” is? The very ambiguity can be part of Trump’s appeal. There’s something exhilarating in the sense one is in an exclusive negotiation with the president to define reality. It’s as if he’s welcoming you backstage from the reality show of politics to the discrete board room where meaning is made.

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UK justice secretary attacks assisted dying bill as ‘state death service’

Shabana Mahmood has written to her constituents saying she is ‘profoundly concerned’ about Friday’s Commons vote

MPs will be placing the country on a “slippery slope towards death on demand” if they back legislation on assisted dying in England and Wales this week, the lord chancellor and justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has said in a letter to constituents before a historic Commons vote on Friday.

Mahmood has received numerous letters about the bill from people in her Birmingham Ladywood seat, which has a big Muslim population, and sent out replies saying that she was “profoundly concerned” about the legislation, not only for religious reasons but also because of what it would mean for the role of the state if one of its functions became helping people to die.

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Starmer seeks to hire EU negotiator in pursuit of relations reset

Salary of at least £153,000 offered by Cabinet Office for ‘principal adviser’ to prime minister

Ministers are hiring a new EU negotiator as Keir Starmer seeks to reset Britain’s relationship with Europe.

The post, worth at least £153,000 a year and advertised by the Cabinet Office, would act as a representative for all of the UK’s dealings with the bloc.

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Will the Ukraine missile crisis change the course of the war?

While Putin conducts his missile diplomacy, restrictions around the use of long-range weapons may help Kyiv

In Kyiv, as autumn turns fast turns to winter, Ukrainians in the government describe a vacuum before the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House on 20 January that will be filled by more war as both sides jockey for advantage. “Trump has said he wants to end the war within 24 hours. Nobody is more interested in this topic than Ukraine,” a senior official told the Guardian.

“But the problem is, for the moment, everything is just speculation. Will it be the first peace plan, the second plan, the first variant, the 10th variant?” they said. Ukraine is in “a difficult but not catastrophic position” and has little choice but to fight on and perhaps show Trump that backing Kyiv is not a losing bet.

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