OSCE mission warns ‘crisis on the continent may arise’ as Polish foreign minister says Europe faces greatest risk of war in 30 years
Russia has said talks with Nato over Ukraine were hitting a dead end, while threatening to take unspecified “necessary measures” if its demands were not met.
A volley of downbeat statements from Russian senior officials emerged as Poland’s foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, warned that Europe faced its greatest risk of war in 30 years.
Continue reading...Moscow says relations with the alliance are at ‘critically low level’ with ‘no positive agenda at all’
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” after talks between alliance members and Russia ended with no signs of progress towards defusing the crisis over Ukraine. ”.
The Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, emerged from the four hours of talks renewing Moscow’s threat that it would take military steps if political measures were not enough to “neutralise the threats” it says it faces. His remarks came only days after his fellow Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, had assured reporters Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine.
Continue reading...EU leaders warn of consequences in response to further aggression against Ukraine
After months of sabre-rattling from Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, Russian officials have been on a diplomatic tour of Europe this week, meeting the US in Geneva and Nato in Brussels. Amid this diplomatic whirl, Europe’s biggest diplomatic club has been absent. The EU has no formal role in the talks, although its officials are drawing up possible sanctions to levy against Russia if the Kremlin decides to invade Ukraine.
The EU’s exclusion from talks on war and peace in its own backyard hurts. “Between Putin and Biden, Europe is sidelined,” ran a Le Monde headline last week. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell,struck an insouciant note. “I don’t care,” he said when the BBC asked whether the US should have gone ahead with the Geneva talks. The Russians, he said, had “deliberately excluded the EU from any participation” but he had been assured by the US that “nothing will be agreed without our strong co-operation, coordination and participation”.
Continue reading...The idea that the Soviet Union was tricked in 1989-90 is at the heart of Russia’s confrontation with the west
The current confrontation between Russia and the west is fuelled by many grievances, but the greatest is the belief in Moscow that the west tricked the former Soviet Union by breaking promises made at the end of the cold war in 1989-1990 that Nato would not expand to the east. In his now famous 2007 speech to the Munich Security Conference, Vladimir Putin accused the west of forgetting and breaking assurances, leaving international law in ruins.
Continue reading...Moscow’s chief negotiator played down chances of a breakthrough as Russian troops conduct live-fire exercise near Ukraine
The Kremlin has said it sees “no significant reason for optimism” about diplomatic solutions for the Ukraine crisis, ahead of a meeting in Brussels between Russia and Nato’s 30 member states.
As Moscow was playing down the chances for success at the negotiating table after initial US-Russian talks in Switzerland on Monday, Russian forces deployed near Ukraine conducted a live-fire military exercise involving 3,000 troops and tanks, in a clear rejection of US demands for a de-escalation in the region.
Continue reading...Analysis: Military advantage is overwhelming but full invasion and occupation are different matter
A full invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of pacifying the capital, Kyiv, would result in Vladimir Putin starting a war on a scale not seen since Iraq in 2003 – prompting western experts to question whether a lasting Russian victory could be achieved.
Estimates suggest about 100,000 Russian troops are massing near Ukraine’s borders. Yet, experts following the crisis closely say that for an invasion of the whole country that number would need to nearly double again, and would almost certainly involve forces passing through Belarus.
Continue reading...Secretary of state Tony Blinken says coming week of talks is moment of truth for Russian president
The US has told Vladimir Putin to choose between dialogue and confrontation on the eve of a critical week of diplomacy over Ukraine as Russian troops remained massed along its borders.
Senior diplomats and military officers from the US and Russia held a working dinner in Geneva on Sunday evening before Monday’s formal negotiations to discuss Moscow’s demands. Those were set out last month in two draft treaties, one with the US and one with Nato. Much of their content is unacceptable to Washington and the alliance, most importantly a pledge that Ukraine will never be a Nato member.
Continue reading...Jens Stoltenberg says Nato will never withdraw its conditional offer of membership to Ukraine
The risk of conflict is real as Russia continues to mass its forces and artillery on the borders of Ukraine and make demands that it knows are unacceptable, Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general, has warned.
Earlier, Nato foreign ministers held a final symbolic display of transatlantic unity before a set of three separate critical talks next week with Russia on Moscow’s demands to restore past spheres of influence and have Nato strategic weapons withdrawn from near Russia’s borders.
Continue reading...Foreign secretary asserts western solidarity against Putin’s threats, but MPs challenge her on Russian influence in UK
Massive coordinated sanctions threatened against Russia if it launches military action against Ukraine will hit the high-level Russian elite and its ability to carry out financial transactions, Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, told MPs on Thursday, as she warned the west could not afford to be seen to reward Moscow in crucial talks next week.
Her remarks appear indirectly to confirm that if Russia mounts an incursion into Ukraine it could be excluded from Swift, the messaging network used by 11,000 banks in 200 countries to make cross-border payments.
Continue reading...Russia is “very likely” to invade Ukraine and might only be deterred by “enormous sanctions”, the chair of the US House intelligence committee said on Sunday.
Adam Schiff also said an invasion could backfire on Moscow, by drawing more countries into the Nato military alliance.
Continue reading...Russian president again voices anger at Nato expansion and says he would be prepared to intervene in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin has accused the west of “coming with its missiles to our doorstep” as he reiterated demands for no further Nato expansion in Europe.
The Russian president did little to reduce tensions over Ukraine as he spoke at a televised press conference, saying he would be prepared to launch an intervention if he felt Ukraine or its western allies were preparing an attack on Russia’s proxies in the country.
Continue reading...Russian leader’s speech to top commanders comes as tensions grow with the west over Ukraine
Vladimir Putin has said he will consider a military response if Russia feels threatened by Nato, in a sign that he is not ready to de-escalate tensions over a potential invasion of Ukraine.
In a combative speech on Tuesday, Putin – who has demanded “security guarantees” from Nato – told his top military commanders that the west was to blame for the rising tensions. It came against a backdrop of a Russian buildup of tanks and artillery for what could constitute an invasion force within weeks.
Continue reading...Minister’s comments come days after Boris Johnson warns Russia of ‘significant consequences’
It is highly unlikely that Britain or its allies will send troops to defend Ukraine if it is invaded by neighbouring Russia, the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has said.
US intelligence claims that Russia has stationed about 70,000 troops near the border of Ukraine and has begun planning for a possible invasion as soon as early next year.
Continue reading...Contentious security guarantees Moscow is seeking include a ban on Ukraine from entering Nato
Russia has put forward a highly contentious list of security guarantees it says it wants the west to agree to in order to lower tensions in Europe and defuse the crisis over Ukraine, including many elements that have already been ruled out.
The demands include a ban on Ukraine entering Nato and a limit to the deployment of troops and weapons to Nato’s eastern flank, in effect returning Nato forces to where they were stationed in 1997, before an eastward expansion.
Continue reading...Olaf Scholz faces calls from some EU leaders to threaten Moscow with termination of Nord Stream 2
Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, faced pressure from fellow leaders at his first EU summit to include the future of Nord Stream 2 as part of the “massive price” to be paid in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Arriving in Brussels, Scholz, who replaced Angela Merkel last week, said his government was committed to protecting Europe’s borders, as Nato warned that the number of Russian troops being mobilised by the Kremlin was continuing to grow.
Continue reading...Kremlin wants legal agreement that alliance will not expand into disputed territory
Vladimir Putin has told Boris Johnson that he wants immediate talks to secure clear legal agreements that Nato will not expand eastwards. According to a Kremlin readout of the two leaders’ phone call on Monday, Putin said talks were needed to discuss Nato’s future intentions, and to clarify Ukraine’s plans for the east of the country.
The call marked the first time the two men had spoken since October before the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow. Johnson expressed the UK’s “deep concern over the buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border”, and warned him “that any destabilising action would be a strategic mistake that would have significant consequences”. The British prime minister also called for the issues to be resolved through diplomatic channels.
Continue reading...President’s comments come after he said the US would provide ‘defensive capabilities’ to Ukraine
Joe Biden has said that he is not considering sending US troops to defend Ukraine in response to a Russian military buildup on the country’s borders.
“That is not on the table,” he told reporters on Wednesday, one day after speaking directly with Vladimir Putin in an effort to avert a military crisis.
Continue reading...Nato not sending a clear signal would mean ‘glue that keeps us together’ has failed, says foreign minister
A swift reprisal package against Russia – including US troops and Patriot missiles stationed in the Baltics, the cutting off of Russia from the Swift banking payments system and reinstated sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – must be prepared now in case it invades Ukraine, the Latvian foreign minister has said.
The warning from Edgars Rinkēvičs comes as Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin prepare to hold talks about the growing tensions.
Continue reading...Official says Washington would also impose economic measures in warning to Moscow on eve of talks between Biden and Putin
The US has said it would send reinforcements to Nato’s eastern flank in response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as imposing severe new economic measures, in a warning to Moscow on the eve of talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
Biden will also make clear to Putin that the US will not rule out future Ukrainian membership of Nato, as the Russian leader has demanded, a senior US official said.
Continue reading...France’s top naval commander cites ‘rapid rearmament’ of China and Russia as danger to maritime security
France’s most senior naval commander has said future conflicts are likely to be fought at sea and in the cybersphere, citing the “rapid rearmament” of countries such as China as a potential threat.
Adm Pierre Vandier made his comments after the French Marine Nationale and forces from five allied countries, including the UK, took part in what he described as a unique two-week exercise intended to prepare for “composite threats”.
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